Leverage Plays: Late Pick 4 Analysis at Belmont Park on July 4th, 2019

Below is an economical late Pick 4 ticket for a solid 4th of July card at Belmont Park. As always the ticket is $20 or less. Good luck to all!

Race 6

Ghosting (#3, 5-1) offers upside in this spot as she makes only her second career start and first in the barn of Jason Servis. She did not show much in her debut, but shortens up to 7 furlongs, adds blinkers and picks up Irad Ortiz Jr.

Blahnik (#10, 9-5) is a $575,000 purchase being dropped in for $40,000, which is awfully discouraging, but in this game, you have to put them where they can win. She should appreciate the turnback to 7 furlongs and trainer Todd Pletcher strikes at 41% with this class drop.

Jasminesque (#2, 6-1) was caught behind a slow pace when closing to be a solid third at this level last time out. She is winless in 9 starts, but only two loses have come on the turf and those have been her best efforts. She seems to have found a home on turf and is slowly getting the hang of things.

Shannon's Girl (#1, 3-1) makes her first start off the claim for Brad Cox and her first start in blinkers. Cox strikes at 26% with both moves and this horse only needs to show slight improvement to be right in the mix.

Race 7

Market Bubble (#5, 8-1) is a total wildcard in this spot. He has only raced once on firm turf and that was a solid debut win. He has proceed to run 4 consecutive poor races (1 on yielding turf, 3 on dirt). The debut run could have been a fluke, but considering he was an expensive purchase, got bet on debut and Joel Rosario sees fit to ride him on Thursday, I am willing to gamble that it was more than a fluke.

Mr. Massena (6, 7-2) exits a common race on June 9th at Belmont. It is tough to separate many of the runners that come out of that race, but he may be the safest bet. He has been the model of consistency on the turf with 2 wins and 4 seconds in his last 6 turf tries. This gelding fits well with these.

National Honor (#3, 3-1) invades from Pimlico where he defeated open company last time out. He struggled against cheaper foes than these in 2018, but has been in razor sharp form in 2019 and there is no reason to believe that he can not compete at Belmont.

Riendo ( #10, 5-1) exits the same race as Mr. Massena and ran a good third after being too far back early. He is only 1 for 15 lifetime, but has reached peak form since joining the Schosberg barn 3 starts back. Look for him to be more involved early from an outside draw.

Opt (#8, 15-1) received a low Beyer for his maiden breaking score, but was visually impressive drawing away late in his first start on turf. He has room to improve and is a nice value at 15-1.

Race 8

Pulsate (#1, 10-1) will win the Manila at a juicy price. This colt is bred top and bottom for the turf, but was not given a chance to run over the surface following an even 5th place debut run without Lasix. He won two in a row on the dirt this year, because he is a talented colt and put forth a monster effort last time out in his return to turf. Pole Setter walked on the lead and Pulsate, the only horse making up ground in the race, closed from last to run 2nd. There should be more speed to run at on Thursday and he will appreciate stretching out to a mile. He is a single at 10-1 in the Pick 4.

Race 9

Tannuzzo (#4, 10-1) flashed good speed before tiring badly on debut. She returns with a bullet work in a race without much speed and catches a field that is rather polite when it comes to passing other horses. She could lead all the way at a nice price.

Here Comes Meg (#1, 6-1) merely ran around the track on debut, but that was against Maiden Special Weight foes on the turf. She takes the biggest class drop in the game for a barn that is 2 for their last 4 with this move and switches to dirt. She offers upside in a race that lacks inspiring form.

$0.50 Pick 4 Ticket:  1,2,3,10 – 3,5,6,8,10 – 1 – 1, 4 = $20

-Padraic Manocchio

@xbtvpadraic

Leverage Plays: Late Pick 4 Analysis at Belmont Park on July 4th, 2019