Leverage Plays: Late Pick 4 Analysis at Gulfstream Park on April 18th, 2020

Below is my late Pick 4 ticket for a good card at Gulfstream Park on Saturday. The ticket ended up being a little more than usual, but is still an economical $24 for this tough sequence. Good luck!

Race 9

Zarina (#3, 10-1) loves one mile and the return to her favorite distance is key while making her second start off a layoff.  The connections have been chilly, but that will keep her price fair, as she is strictly the horse to beat.

Mintd (#7, 10-1) was ultra impressive off a long layoff in her first start stateside. There is a concern that she could bounce, but she is certainly working like she will take another step forward.

 

Race 10

Blood Moon (#2, 7-2) makes his second start off the claim for the red hot Danny Gargan barn and returns the the distance of his last victory, one mile. I expect Saez to ride him aggressively on the class drop.

Causalistic (#7, 6-1) was up against it last time chasing a slow pace in a short field. His two races at the distance have been very good and he is dangerous while making his first start in the Maker barn.

Perfect Revenge (#8, 3-1) drops in class, returns to a mile, and removes blinkers. He often leaves himself too much to do, but will be rolling late from a good outside draw.

 

Race 11

Miss Auramet (#2, 9-2) has been on a roll since adding blinkers and there is no reason to believe that she will not continue her strong form on the class hike. Pace pressure from the outside is the only thing that can get her beat.

Hidden Facts (#6, 5-1) will be applying that pace pressure and is tough on her best day. She has a touch of class that could loom large in the lane.

Lady Grace (#7, 4-1) has blossomed as a four-year-old and her latest win was visually impressive. This improving daughter of Kantharos should sit a great trip in this spot.

Sanity (#10, 20-1) should be included at a big price. She is bred to adore the turf, being by City Zip, and has 5 wins over the surface, including a smart victory in her last try over the sod in September. She seems to have tailed off a bit on dirt and synthetic, but is worth a gamble at 20-1 as new trainer Breen Kelly will look to get her back on track.

 

Race 12

Honest Gal (#10, 7-2) has come close against slightly tougher and catches a field that she should be able to beat while sitting a perfect outside trip.

Party Dress (#8, 9-2) looks too slow to win in the Beyer Speed Figure department, but further improvement is possible in her first start as a three-year-old and only her 3rd lifetime start. She caught a sloppy track in both starts and was bet heavily, so you have to think there is more here than what we have seen.

 

$0.50 Pick 4 Ticket:  3,7 – 2,7,8 – 2,6,7,10 – 8,10 = $24

-Padraic Manocchio

@xbtvpadraic

Leverage Plays: Late Pick 4 Analysis at Gulfstream Park on April 18th, 2020

Blogs, Leverage Plays with Padraic Manocchio |