Leverage Plays: Late Pick 4 Analysis at Santa Anita Park on February 3rd, 2018

Below is the late Pick 4 ticket at Santa Anita Park on February 3rd, 2018. As always the ticket is $20 or less.

Race 6

Roosevelt (#6, 8-1) runs his best races when he is able to be close to the pace. He was marooned from a wide spot throughout his last race and was never able to find a comfortable position. He battled on well to be 4th and could be extremely tough if sent to the lead from a much better post today.

Southern Thunder (#4, 6-1) has shown nice improvement since adding blinkers and stretching out to two turns. He had a bit of trouble last time out and was compromised by a slow early pace. Flavien Prat takes the call and his bullet work last week signals he is ready.

Mercer Island (#3, 5-2) is a tricky horse to read. If he runs back to his start two back, then everyone is running for second. That is a big ‘if’ however; following this gelding’s poor effort last time. The huge drop is also a red flag. He must be included on class alone, but he is hard to trust in exotics.

Race 7

Hayabusa One (#7, 6-1) offers the most upside of any horse in the San Marcos. This horse owns a win at 1 5/16 and 1 3/16 and should love returning to 1 1/4. He was able to win at a shorter distance last time out on ability alone, but expect a big move forward second off a layoff for Peter Miller.

Itsinthepost (#5, 9-5) owns 5 wins over the Santa Anita Park turf course and has never been better. The hard-knocker is tough to ignore in this spot and is a deserving favorite for Jeff Mullins.

Isotherm (#4, 3-1) ran like a short horse last time out and should move forward in his second start off a long layoff. He is the defending champion of this race and should sit a nice trip right behind the pace.

Race 8

Top of the Game (#4, 4-1) is the ultimate horse-for-course. He returns to the Santa Anita dirt, where he is 4 for 4 lifetime. Throw out his last two races, one on the turf and one at Del Mar with a horrid trip, and the gelding is strictly the horse to beat. He is drawn well on the outside and should track the early pace before pouncing.

Pavel (#1, 4-1) disappointed in the Malibu, but deserves one more chance in here. He has been asked to do so much in a very short time and hopefully he still has the will to run at a top level. There is no question that the ability is there and a breakout performance would certainly put this colt in the Winner’s Circle. Look for Mario Gutierrez to utilize the rail to get this horse into the race from the break as his best races have come when he presses the early pace.

Race 9

Gone to Town (#1, 5-1) finally got to do what she wants to do, sprint on the turf, last time out and the result was a convincing victory. The filly has improved tremendously since adding blinkers and she should move right up the class ladder without much problem. The rail draw could be the only thing that gets this rising filly beat.

Beau Square(#8, 7-2) is the horse that would benefit if Gone to Town were to break slow from the rail. She ran a strong third to an even money favorite last time out and brings consistent turf form into this race. She is drawn well and will certainly be right there on the line.

$0.50 Pick 4 Ticket: 3,4,6 – 4,5,7 – 1,4 – 1,8  = $18

-Padraic Manocchio

@xbtvpadraic

 

Leverage Plays: Late Pick 4 Analysis at Santa Anita Park on February 3rd, 2018

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