Leverage Plays: Late Pick 4 Analysis at Santa Anita Park on January 26th, 2019

Below is the late Pick 4 ticket for January 26th, 2019 at Santa Anita Park. As always the ticket is $20 or less.

Race 8

Smitten Kitten (#2, 5-2) did what most horses at this level fail to do; win while facing adversity. She was five wide the entire race last time out and after dropping off the pace, she still managed to rally and win. It was a better effort than the form shows and this sharp mare should be tough right back.

Carrie’s Success (#5, 4-1) returns to a sprint and her last effort at this distance would make her very tough in here. She will be closing fast late for trainer Bill Morey with the appreciate Figueroa aboard.

Don’teatmycookies (#6, 3-1) returns in just 6 days after a sharp front-running score. It is always good to have speed in a race where horses are polite about passing one another and this filly may be the speed of the speed in this spot.

Race 9

Cordiality (#5, 3-1) has won her last two starts in the Cal-Bred ranks and was best last time out against open company when suffering a tough trip behind horses. She has a win down the hill, has three wins over the Santa Anita Turf Course and makes her 1st start off the claim for Peter Miller, who is 29% with this move.

Race 10

Union Rebel (#2, 4-1) projects to carve out a nice trip and seems to be slightly better since removing the blinkers and switching to Carva. This gelding drops in class, returns to dirt and is the tepid choice in a wide-open race.

Roaring Fork (#8, 6-1) also returns to dirt and owns an easy win over this main track. He should be tighter second off a brief layoff in this spot.

Builder (#5, 5-2) will likely set the pace after running a good second at this level last time out. He definitely figures in this spot and will lead this field as far as he can, but offers no value at 5-2.

Derby Factor (#7, 15-1) was given his first opportunity to route since adding blinkers and responded with a win. He will need to step up to win again, but a confident horse can go a long way at this level and the lightbulb may have finally switched to on.

Race 11

Rye (#3, 5-1) is the defending champion of this event and looks to quietly be rounding back into form. He has never performed all that well sprinting over synthetic surfaces, but earned a career high synthetic Beyer of 80 in his effort 2 weeks ago. That was clearly meant to just be a prep for this race. He returns to his favorite distance (3 for 5) and gets Desormeaux back in the saddle.

Marckie’s Water (#5, 7-2) is another runner who thrives at the distance and brings some class into this affair after facing a steady diet of open competition. He should draft into a nice spot just behind the leaders and will get first run on Rye.

Camino Del Paraiso (#7, 5-1) has improved since removing blinkers and is capable of winning a race like this on his best day. He has struggled a bit with consistency, but finally draws a good post after breaking from the outermost slot in his last 2 races.

 

$0.50 Pick 4 Ticket: 2,5,6 – 5 – 2,5,7,8  – 3,5,7  = $18

-Padraic Manocchio

@xbtvpadraic

Leverage Plays: Late Pick 4 Analysis at Santa Anita Park on January 26th, 2019

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