Leverage Plays: Late Pick 5 Analysis at Santa Anita Park on April 7th, 2018

Below is the late Pick 5 ticket for Santa Anita Derby Day, April 7th, 2018 at Santa Anita Park. As always the ticket is $20 or less.

Race 8

Sigur Ros (#8, 6-1) finally catches a field with no speed after being used up in pace duels in his last two starts. He was 6 wide every step of the way last time out in a race where the top 3 finishes all came up the inside. Javier Castellano jumps aboard this gelding who should lead every step of the way on moderate fractions.

Race 9

Justify (#6, 4-5) has the look of a future star even though he is unproven to this point. He will need to be great to beat a two-time Grade 1 winner, but he may just be this good. His effortless stride has some people dreaming of the next Triple Crown winner.

Bolt d’Oro (#3, 6-5) has a huge credentials edge over Justify, but ran awfully hard off of a layoff in the San Felipe Stakes. McKinzie was taken off the Derby Trail following that taxing effort. Will we get the best of Bolt d’Oro in here? It will not take much of an opening for Justify to emerge as California’s leader heading to Kentucky. Due to questions with both colts, it is wise to play them both in vertical wagers.

Race 10

Sophie P (#2, 12-1) has never been better heading into her U.S. debut for Jim Cassidy. She won two in a row in impressive fashion while carrying up to 15 pounds more than she will today. She beat males last time out and catches a field with a ton of speed to flatter her late kick. This foreigner appears to be very well meant and dangerous at a nice price.

Beau Recall (#3, 4-1) is another filly who should benefit greatly from the abundance of pace in this spot. There are concerns that she may be tailing off, but some of her best races have come at a mile and if this race falls apart, this Grade 1 placed filly could swoop by them all late.

Enola Gray (#6, 3-1) is freakishly fast and can be nearly impossible to beat on her best day. A 10 month layoff and a race loaded with speed will make her task tough however; and she is sure to be a short price.

Madame Stripes (#7, 7-2) has been very inconsistent as of late, but her troubled win in the Megahertz two starts back could be good enough to get the job done in here. She is another horse that will benefit from a fast early pace and has 2 wins and 5 seconds in 8 lifetime starts at Santa Anita Park.

Race 11

Midnight Bisou (#3, 6-5) is a legitimate threat to win the Kentucky Oaks and should handle this field with relative ease on her way there. She has gotten better with every start and has already defeated a couple of her biggest competitors in this race.

Race 12

Arch of Troy (#9, 12-1) is an interesting price play after making a nice middle move before fading last time out. This filly won her only start at the distance and offers more upside than most of her rivals. She has also worked very well in the interim.

Pantsonfire (#2, 3-1) has shown steady improvement and is a solid fit at this level. Like Arch of Troy, she won her only start at the distance. She is also two for four at Santa Anita Park. The only concern is the lack of pace signed on in the field for this late running filly.

Laseen (#1, 7-2) is always in the mix, but is not a big fan of winning. She is 3 for 34 lifetime, but will break through the 2X condition one of these days. She is a logical contender, who is a must use in exotic wagering.

Queen Blossom (#10, 5-1) has not won since arriving in America, but her races at this level over the summer at Belmont and Saratoga are good enough to win in this spot. She makes her second start for Richard Baltas, drops in class and shortens in distance.

The Tulip (#7, 5-1) is the only horse in the field coming off of a win in her last start. That could make the difference is a race full of horses that do not win often. The sharp mare may be able to handle the step up in class.

$0.50 Pick 5 Ticket: 8 – 3,6 – 2,3,6,7 – 3 – 1,2,7,9,10   = $20

-Padraic Manocchio

@xbtvpadraic

Leverage Plays: Late Pick 5 Analysis at Santa Anita Park on April 7th, 2018