Is every race won by the horse whose performance was the best? Any seasoned horseplayer can tell you that certainly is not the case. There are a great many examples in which the horse who ran the best race did not win.
Take, for example, the recent Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita Park on Nov. 1-2.
In six of this year’s 14 Breeders’ Cup races, the winner did not get the best Thoro-Graph figure. It puts a spotlight on a number of horses who, according to Thoro-Graph, ran a better race in defeat than the horse who won.
I find the differences between the Beyer and Thoro-Graph figures in this year’s BC Juvenile and BC Juvenile Turf to be especially interesting.
Storm the Court came away with the money and glory for winning the BC Juvenile. But according to Thoro-Graph, Anneau d’Or’s performance in defeat was considerably better.
Structor was victorious in the BC Juvenile Turf. But according to Thoro-Graph, nine of the vanquished ran as well as, or better than, Structor. Decorated Invader, who finished fourth, posted the best Thoro-Graph figure in that race.
Many horseplayers find Beyer Speed Figures to be very helpful. I do think they have value. I would not refer to them as often as I do if I believed otherwise.
But as I have stated before, I also believe that Thoro-Graph figures are much better than the Beyers.
In terms of Beyer Speed Figures, a higher number is better than a lower one. The opposite is true regarding Thoro-Graph figures.
The winner of a race will never get a lower Beyer Speed Figure than the horse who finished second, the horse who finished second will never get a lower Beyer than the horse who finished third, and so on down through the order of finish.
In the case of the Thoro-Graph Figures, a horse who finishes second, or even lower, can get a better figure than the winner. This is one of the things I love about Thoro-Graph. I consider a Thoro-Graph figure to be a much more realistic evaluation of a horse’s performance. Thoro-Graph’s approach reflects the reality that the winner is not necessarily the horse who ran the best race.
Beyer Speed Figures are based primarily on the time of the race relative to the track variant. The variant is an assessment of a track surface. Was the surface on which the race was run normal? If not, how much faster or slower than normal was the surface? The variant is a tool in which one can put the time of a race into perspective as opposed to raw time.
The Beyer-makers will adjust as they deem necessary in order to come up with what they feel is the most accurate figure possible to reflect a horse’s performance. One way the Beyer-makers do this is by keeping an eye on how each horse’s figure in a race compares to its previous performances. When a figure looks out of whack, it will be tweaked in order to make it more realistic in their judgment.
A major reason I believe a Thoro-Graph figure is superior to a Beyer Speed Figure is the Thoro-Graph figure takes many more factors into account. According to Thoro-Graph, “each number on a sheet represents a performance rating arrived at by using time of the race, beaten lengths, ground lost or saved on the turns, weight carried, and any effects wind conditions had on the time of the race.”
Let’s take a look at all six of the 2019 Breeders’ Cup races in which, according to Thoro-Graph, a horse or horses who lost ran as good as, or better than, the winner:
BC FILLY & MARE TURF AT 1 1/4 MILES ON TURF. Iridessa won by a neck. Vasilika finished second. Sistercharlie came in third, 2 1/4 lengths behind Vasilika.
According to the Beyers, the performances by Iridessa and Vasilika were equal, with a gap of 5 points back to Sistercharlie.
According to Thoro-Graph, the performances by both Vasilika and Sistercharlie were better than Iridessa’s.
These were the Beyers for those three:
105 Iridessa
105 Vasilika
100 Sistercharlie
These were the Thoro-Graph figures for those three:
2 Vasilika
2 3/4 Sistercharlie
3 1/4 Iridessa
BC DIRT MILE AT ONE MILE ON DIRT. Spun to Run won by 2 3/4 lengths. Omaha Beach finished second.
According to the Beyers, Spun to Run’s performance clearly was better than Omaha Beach’s.
According to Thoro-Graph, Omaha Beach’s performance was equal to Spun to Run’s.
These were the Beyers for those two:
109 Spun to Run
104 Omaha Beach
These were the Thoro-Graph figures for those two:
negative 1/2 Spun to Run
negative 1/2 Omaha Beach
BC TURF SPRINT AT FIVE FURLONGS ON TURF. Belvoir Bay won by 1 1/4 lengths. Om finished second.
According to the Beyers, Belvoir Bay’s performance was better than Om’s.
According to Thoro-Graph, Om’s performance was better than Belvoir Bay’s.
These were the Beyers for those two:
107 Belvoir Bay
103 Om
These were the Thoro-Graph figures for those two:
1/2 Om
1 Belvoir Bay
BC JUVENILE AT 1 1/16 MILES ON DIRT. Storm the Court won by a neck. Anneau d’Or finished second.
According to the Beyers, Storm the Court’s performance was slightly better than Anneau d’Or’s.
According to Thoro-Graph, Anneau d’Or’s performance was considerably better than Storm the Court’s.
These were the Beyers for those two:
87 Storm the Court
86 Anneau d’Or
These were the Thoro-Graph figures for those two:
3 3/4 Anneau d’Or
5 1/2 Storm the Court
BC JUVENILE FILLIES TURF AT ONE MILE ON TURF. Sharing won by 1 1/4 lengths. Daahyeh finished second. Sweet Melania came in third, a neck behind Daahyeh.
According to the Beyers, Sharing’s performance was better than both Daahyeh’s and Sweet Melania’s.
According to Thoro-Graph, Sweet Melania’s performance was better than Sharing’s.
These were the Beyers for those three:
86 Sharing
82 Daahyeh
82 Sweet Melania
These were the Thoro-Graph figures for those three:
7 1/2 Sweet Melania
7 3/4 Sharing
9 1/2 Daahyeh
BC JUVENILE TURF AT ONE MILE ON TURF. Structor won by three-quarters of a length. Billy Batts finished second. Gear Jockey came in third, a neck behind Billy Batts. They were followed across the finish line by Decorated Invader (fourth), Arizona (fifth), Proven Strategies (sixth), Fort Meyers (dead heat for seventh), Hit the Road (dead heat for seventh, disqualified and placed 14th), Our Country (ninth), Andesite (tenth), War Beast (eleventh), Peace Achieved (twelfth), Graceful Kitten (thirteenth) and Deviant (fourteenth).
According to Thoro-Graph, six horses who lost ran a better race than the victorious Structor, plus two horses who lost ran as well as Structor.
These were the Beyers for the 14 starters:
79 Structor
77 Billy Batts
76 Gear Jockey
75 Decorated Invader
75 Arizona
75 Proven Strategies
74 Fort Myers
74 Hit the Road
74 Our Country
72 Andesite
71 War Beast
67 Peace Achieved
67 Graceful Kitten
40 Deviant
These were the Thoro-Graph figures for the 14 starters:
8 3/4 Decorated Invader
9 Hit the Road
9 1/2 Gear Jockey
9 1/2 Fort Meyers
10 Arizona
10 1/4 Proven Strategies
10 1/2 Structor
10 1/2 Billy Batts
10 1/2 War Beast
10 3/4 Andesite
12 Our Country
12 1/2 Peace Achieved
13 3/4 Graceful Kitten
18 Deviant
