January 14, 2022
“What Your Need to Know”
Santa Anita, Friday, January 14, 2022
By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” presents a daily Santa Anita handicapping analysis with wagering strategies, workout commentary (with video links), and the True Odds Calculations (“TPC”) to identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 individual
algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100 point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: X
Single: 4-Con On the Run
Forecast: Con On the Run (TOC=4/5; ML=6/5) improved his Beyer speed figure 26 points in his third career start when dismantling a maiden $50,000 field at Del Mar in late November with a powerful, on-the-pace performance. The son of Uncaptured returns in a logical spot – a starter’s allowance sprint for 3-year-olds – and a repeat of his maiden win should be more than good enough for a repeat score. A recent breezing workout (see below) indicates he’s continuing to head in the right direction, so at 6/5 on the morning line he’s a short-priced rolling exotic single.
Notable Workouts:
Con on the Run (January 9, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.1h TT). Grade: B+
In blinkers, just galloping throughout after tying in with Frose and Just About Enough (both 5f 1:01.2h TT) down the backside in training track breeze for J. Mullins. Plenty left late and was full of run, maintains his razor sharp edge.
View Workout Video
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RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: (in order of preference): 1-Feeling Grazeful; 5-Kitten’s Kid; 6-Austin James
Forecast: We’ll go three deep in this maiden-special-weight turf miler for state-bred older fillies and mares. Feeling Grazeful has four sprint efforts under her belt and should be more than ready to stretch out and earn her diploma. The W. Spawr-trained filly has rising speed figures and enough early speed to use her rail post position to excellent advantage in a race that projects to have comfortable early fractions. If she’s ever going to win around two-turns, it’ll be in her first try, and with F. Prat staying aboard she’s the logical top pick and one to beat. Kitten’s Kid ran well under these conditions two races back when a solid runner-up at Del Mar. She has speed figures that are quite competitive and makes a major jockey switch to Johnny V., so the daughter of Boisterous is a “must use” in rolling exotic play. Also worth consideration, at least as a back-up or a saver, is Austin James, a willing third in the same race Kitten’s Kid exits and making just her third career start. A nice recent breeze is a positive factor, so this daughter of Gabriel Charles could produce enough of a forward move to make her dangerous.
Notable Workouts :
Austin James (January 7, Santa Anita, 4f, :49h TT). Grade: B
Breezing in solo training track move for J. Mullins, final three furlongs in :12 flat and :36.3. Moves well, has improvement in her, seeking another state-bred turf affair.
View Workout Video
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RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference: 1-Lucy Jane; 3-Hail Columbia; 9-Kjos Kid; 7-So It Would Seem
Forecast: The first leg of the Pick-6 is a messy maiden claiming ($75,000) sprint for sophomore fillies. For sure, the race requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Lucy Jane flashed good early speed before understandably falling back in her debut vs. straight maidens at Los Alamitos last month in a race that was fast, highly-raced, and already productive, with winner Under the Stars returning to win a graded stakes race last weekend and the third place finisher Comedic coming back to finish a strong second in an all-weather maiden sprint at Gulfstream Park that was run in track record time. Two gate works since that race, including a bullet :46 3/5 move six days ago, indicate the daughter of Speighster has enough speed to be very dangerous in this considerably easier spot, assuming she breaks well from her rail post position. At 7/2 on the morning line, the L. Mendez-trained filly appears the one to beat. Hail Columbia is a first-timer starter from a stable that has excellent stats with debut runners (23%) and attracts one of the barn’s go-to riders, J.J. Hernandez (20% with a massive ROI with this jockey/trainer combo). The daughter of Exaggerator hasn’t missed a beat since her first local workout in late October so she should be more than fit enough. She’s shown enough in the a.m. to be competitive with these (note: full discloser, this handicapper is part owner of Hail Columbia). Kjos Kid had no visible mishap when weakening to finish ninth of 12 in her debut on turf vs. tougher maidens during the fall meeting, but her recent works at San Luis Rey Downs look decent so the daughter of Frosted certainly could step forward with the change to dirt, the drop in class, a comfortable outside draw, and the switch to F. Prat. So It Would Seem returns with blinkers and a good series of local recent workouts for P. D’Amato. Her only prior outing came against tougher straight maidens last fall, and she could easily be a better type now for a barn that has strong stats (21%) with layoff runners.
Notable Workouts:
Hail Columbia (January 10, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.3h). Grade: B-
Splits of :11.4, :23.4 and :48.3, easy to the top, then mildly asked through the lane in solo drill for J. Sadler. Has a steady series of drills since October, should be a fit at this level.
View Workout Video
Basket Case (January 8, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.3hg). Grade: C+
In gate drill between Sync (5f, 1:01.2hg) and Big Bell (4f, :48.3hg) and was second best of the trio, not asked much early but then ridden from the half mile pole to the end and tiring late, splits of :24.3, :36.3, :48.3 and 1:01.3 for M. McCarthy, a length back when eased up after five furlongs. Would prefer to see one first.
View Workout Video
So It Would Seem (December 17, Santa Anita, 4f, :48h TT). Grade: B
No blinkers (scheduled to add them), solo training track drill for P. D’Amato and looked okay, never really asked much, final three furlongs in :12.1 and :35.4. Had a run in straight maiden company last fall and weakened late, may improve this time around with a class drop.
View Workout Video
Harddiane (January 5, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.2hg). Grade: C
Was ridden from the gate but was steadily outrun by Weston (4f, :47hg), splits of :24.1, :36 flat and :48.4, slower than given and not impressive. Been away since June, hasn’t looked like much in the a.m. off the layoff.
View Workout Video
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RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference: 1-Hulk; 2-Nothngoodcomseasy; 7-Street Ruckus
Forecast: The fourth race is another maiden claimer, this one for older horses over nine furlongs on grass. Hulk seems to be an improving sort and ran a bit better than the line will show when pressing a hot pace outside before weakening late in a similar affair at Del Mar in early November. Returning off a two month layoff, working nicely, and landing the good rail, the J. Mullins-trained gelding projects as the controlling speed, and given that type of trip could take control early and never look back. Nothngoodcomseasy lacked room from the top of the lane to the wire and wound up a close fifth in the same race Hulk exits. It was just his second career start, so with clear sailing today and with F. Prat staying aboard, the son of Medaglia d’Oro seems likely to be heard from in the final stages. Street Ruckus returns from the Midwest for the hot V. Cerin barn and has two races local races last year that chart very well in this spot. The stable’s main go-to guy K. Desormeaux returns and has gotten good run out of this Street Boss gelding in the past. We’re expecting the winner to be one of these three, with Hulk, listed at 7/2 on the morning line, getting a very slight edge on top.
Notable Workouts:
Hulk (January 8, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.4h TT). Grade: B-
Easy half mile training track breeze for J. Mullins, strictly on his own, final three furlongs in :36.1. May have a bit of improvement in him, freshened since early November and is coming back well enough.
View Workout Video
World Cruiser (January 8, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:13h). Grade: B-
Mostly on his own to the top of the lane, then was ridden and asked and finished up okay, splits of :24 flat, :35.4, :47.4 and 1:13.1 for six furlongs on our watches for Truman in solo main track drill for maiden son of Hard Spun. Lacks early speed but can finish a bit and probably has some improvement in him. High-priced maiden claiming material.
View Workout Video
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RACE 5: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 4-Untouched Elegance; 6-Win Often; 2-Canam Gal
Forecast: This $20,000 claiming sprint for older fillies and mares looks a bit treacherous so we’ll go three-deep and hope to survive and advance. Untouched Elegance earned a stronger than par speed figure when beating a restricted (nw-2) $16,000 field at Los Alamitos last month in her first outing in almost a year, and if she can turn in two alike, the daughter of Bodemeister can score right back despite the raise in class. The concern is that Los Al speed figures aren’t always transferable to the big track, so while we’ll give the veteran mare the edge on top, we’re not quite sure how much we can trust her. Win Often seeks her third straight score, winning a modest restricted (nw-2) $20,000 seller at Del Mar in November and then most recently at Los Alamitos an open $16,000 affair that produced a career top speed figure. She moves up a notch following a D. O’Neill claim, switches to F. Prat, and is a two-time winner (from three career starts) over the Santa Anita main track, factors that contributed to her 2-1 morning line favorite’s role. The main worry is her lack of tactical speed, meaning she’ll need some help up front to have her best chance. Canam Gal is another coming off a win, her victory accomplished over the all-weather surface at Golden Gate Fields three weeks ago. Claimed by the high-percentage R. France outfit (a remarkable 39% with a strong ROI with this angle), the lightly-raced filly by Bayern is short in the speed figure department but could produce a significant forward move for her new connections. At 8-1 on the morning line we have to include her somewhere.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference: 7-Cotopaxi; 5-Encroachment
Forecast: Cotopaxi shows up in a claimer for the first time and appears to have found his winning level. In the frame in three of seven starts since being imported from England while earning speed figures that are good enough to handle this assignment, the J. Mullins-trained gelding shows a healthy series of drills for his first start since October, and a repeat of his strong runner-up effort over this course and distance two runs back makes him the one to beat. Price players should also consider Encroachment in rolling exotic play. The Uncle Mo gelding stretches out for the first time in a race that on paper doesn’t have much speed signed on, so if he can shake loose without undue pressure the lightly-raced five-year-old might take this field a very long way. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Cotopaxi.
Notable Workouts:
Cosmo (January 8, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.1h). Grade: C+
Broke off far behind Cane Creek Road (same time) and closed the gap under urging through the lane (workmate breezing) but couldn’t quite catch ‘Road, final half mile in :23.3 and :47.4 for D. O’Neill. Lacks tactical and doesn’t really have much of a kick, either.
View Workout Video
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RACE 7: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 3-Classier; 2-Vittorio
Forecast: Classier has been sparingly raced throughout his career but he’s pretty good on his best day and his recent workouts are encouraging. Winner of the Los Alamitos Derby-G3 last summer, he’s adding Lasix for his first outing since finishing unplaced in the Pat O’Brien S.-G2 last August and this return to the allowance ranks should allow the son of Empire Maker to regain his winning form. We like him on top but will also include in our rolling exotics Vittorio, a highly-rated first-level allowance winner at this one mile trip at Los Alamitos last month. The son of Ghostzapper has started only four times, so he may have upside some of the others don’t, and projects to inherit the role as the controlling speed, with Classier accepting a stalker’s position. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll have extra tickets keying Classier on top.
Notable Workouts:
Classier (January 6, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:11.4h). Grade: B+
Tied in with Air Force Red and Signofthecross (both 5f, 1:00.1h) and breezed on by on the turn before finishing in full stride out to the seven furlong pole under mild pressure, final five eighths in :22.2, :46.3 and :59.4 for B. Baffert. Freshened since August and should be plenty fit based on this drill. Has second level allowance conditions.
View Workout Video
Spielberg (January 8, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1hg). Grade: B-
In blinkers, was ridden along throughout and urged late while slightly second best inside Cezanne (same time) for Baffert, splits of :24.3, :36 flat, :47.1 and 1:00.1. Just an okay work while getting fit again, might need to race himself into shape.
View Workout Video
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RACE 8: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 5-Maybe Never; 6-Lookout Point
Forecast: Let’s take a shot with Maybe Never is this modest maiden $50,000 claimer for older horses over nine furlongs on grass. Last of 12, beaten 30 lengths in his only outing when facing straight maidens, the L. Powell-trained entrant is a first-time gelding, gets Lasix and blinkers, and makes his first start in more than two months, so he could be much better than his debut shows. The son of Not This Time has trained okay since that race and strikes us as being a one-paced grinding type that should appreciate today’s longer trip. With a trouble-free trip, he might be capable of pulling off a surprise at 6-1 on the morning line in race that came up weaker than average. Lookout Point hasn’t done much in a pair of starts since joining the S. Knapp barn via a $50,000 claim but he had some races last summer that make him a solid contender in this league. He’s another that should appreciate today’s longer distance. Both should be included in rolling exotic play but you should feel free to spread deeper if you find the need.
Notable Workouts:
Maybe Never (January 4, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1h). Grade: B-
In blinkers, ridden most of the way and finished well enough, final three furlongs in :36.2 for L. Powell. Finished far back in his only outing but has to be better than that. Recently gelded, hood may help, wants a distance of ground.
View Workout Video
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