Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Overnight Xpress for August 20, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

 

DEL MAR

Sunday, August 20, 2017

RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 4-Ramona Lover; 1-Flower Heart Deer

Forecast: This probably is a race that should be left alone. Ramona Lover rates top billing by default; she plummets to the bottom and a repeat of her race before last should be more than good enough to win, but at a short price. Flower Heart Deer is worth small consideration based on a competitive speed figure earned in a turf race three runs back. A little certainly will go a long way here.

Video Analysis

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 2:35 PT. Grade: C

Use: 3-Aristocratic; 4-Regal Born; 5-Burn Me Twice

Forecast: If the opener is a “pass” race, the second is even more so. Former stakes winner Aristocratic shows up in a claimer for the first time, but he’s hooking other speed, and while he could simply out class this field he’s hardly a good thing. Burn Me Twice easily handled a restricted $25,000 field with authority, but got away with soft fractions on the lead and won’t have that luxury today. Regal Born is a late-running sprinter hoping for a pace meltdown, which he could easily get. Use as many as you can afford to in rolling exotic play but otherwise pass.

Video Analysis

 

​​RACE 3: Post 3:09 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 6-Ready Win; 9-Hawks Peak

Forecast: Ready Win shows up for a tag for the first time and should be competitive in this modest maiden claimer. On pure numbers he’s a fit and with the switch to Prat clearly is the one to beat, but not necessarily the one to trust. Hawks Peak lands the cozy outside post in his first start is almost a year and his first as a gelding. The works look okay and the barn has good stats with layoff runners, so we’ll toss him in. Small ticket players might try to survive and advance using just these two, but if you feel the need to deeper, go right ahead.

Video Analysis

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 3:40 PT. Grade: B

Use:  5-Pantsonfire; 9-Eternal Endeavor

Forecast: Pantsonfire overcame traffic trouble at a critical stage on the far turn to rally smartly to be second vs. similar in her U.S. debut, and with clear sailing today and a slight forward move she looks capable of producing the last run. Eternal Endeavor is an intriguing English invader for Powell. She ran well in her only prior outing over an all-weather surface in January and has trained well enough to be fit for a good effort under Prat.

 Video Analysis

 

RACE 5: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 4-Dreamy Gal

Forecast: Dreamy Gal should beat this field. In a bit too steep when third to Miss Sunset in her comeback in the Fleet Treat Stakes last month, the Mullins-trained filly shortens up a half-furlong, tackles a much easier group, and has a history of exploding in her second off a layoff, having graduated for fun over this track in her second career start last year. In a race without too much speed, Baze should be able to pick his spot and then go on with it.

Video Analysis

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RACE 6: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 7-My Man Chuckles; 11-Billy Big

Forecast: This is another messy turf race with a host of possibilities. The preferred two are My Man Chuckles and Billy Big but that’s cutting it close. My Man Chuckles is unproven around two turns, but we’re willing to give him another chance from a better post position while facing a considerably easier group that he saw in the opening day Oceanside Stakes. We’re hoping to see patient handling this time. Billy Big is stuck way outside but this is his first start in a claimer, he has numbers that fit, and if he gets a decent pace up front he’ll be heard from late.

Video Analysis

 

RACE 7: Post 5:10 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 5-Classy Tune; 8-Pleasant as Pie; 11-Plane Lucky

Forecast: Pleasant as Pie was out of her element two-turning on grass last time out, but should be capable of bouncing back today while shortening to a sprint and returning to the main track. She’s won over the Del Mar strip in the past and will be dangerous if the pace pressers hook up early, which seems likely. Classy Tune earned a good figure when graduating over this track last month, but those behind her have disappointed since. She’s probably the best of the speed types but will be taking quite a bit of heat early on. Plane Lucky, freshened since April, is drawn comfortably outside and with a good break is virtually guaranteed a nice pace-stalking trip. In the money in six of 10 career starts, she seems likely to hit the board and has back numbers that make her something of a threat at a decent price.

Video Analysis

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RACE 8: Post 5:40 PT.  Grade: B+

Use:  4-Midnight Storm; 3-Bal a Bali

Forecast: Midnight Storm is back on turf, clearly is the controlling speed and has won five of six lifetime over the Del Mar turf course. And if that weren’t enough, he’s training as well as ever. Bal a Bali should be running on strongly late and if ‘Storm gets a little weary late he’s the most logical to pick him up.

Video Analysis

 

RACE 9: Post 6:10 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 3-St Patrick’s Day; 10-Zatter

Forecast: Baffert holds the aces in this maiden special weight sprint, with American Pharoah’s full-brother St Patrick’s Day and the equally if not more talented Zatter squaring off in the afternoon when it counts after working stride-for-stride in a six furlong gate drill last week. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Zatter, who may have been a tad the best in that gate drill, and who’s likely to be a better price on the tote.

Video Analysis

 

RACE 10: Post 6:40 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 3-Ok Doll; 4-Bombilate; 5-Domestic Vintage

Forecast: The finale is a wide open turf affair that requires a significant spread in rolling exotic play. The three listed above all are likely to run well and with good racing luck should be in the picture in the final furlong. Ok Doll may have been short in her comeback when weakening late to finish a close fifth vs. similar last month but with even a slight forward move could spring a mild surprise. Bombilate took hold late and finished with excellent energy in the same race ‘Doll exits and certainly has a right to improve in her second U.S. outing. Domestic Vintage is progressing nicely with experience after beating maidens over this course last month, and with the switch to Romans will benefit from a significant break in the weights.

Video Analysis

 

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SARATOGA

Sunday, August 20, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Caniform; 4-Martino; 9-Lightning Buzz

​​RACE 2: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B

Use: 3-Mambo At the Gym; 9-Kantune

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RACE 3: Post 2:07 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Magical Sky; 6-Complicit; 10-Bodie’s Valentine

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:41 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Noneedtoflatterme; 2-Pirellone; 3-Chubby Master

​RACE 5: Post 3:15 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Fools Gold; 3-Layla Noor; 10-Wealth Effect

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:59 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Lezendary; 6-Gemini; 10-Purrfect Miss

​​RACE 7: Post 4:25 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Wicked Macho; 9-Gehrig; 10-New York’s Finest

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​​​RACE 8: Post 5:02 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Romantic Music; 8-Lillie’s Answer; 9-Magician’s Vanity

RACE 9: Post 5:40 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Verve’s Tale; 4-Romantic Vision

 

RACE 10: Post 6:18 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 3-Helluva Choice; 4-Stormin Maclean

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Overnight Xpress for August 20, 2017

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