Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis April 8, 2016

FIRST RACE (1:00 PT) – GRADE: B

 Single: 7-Flexible Ethics

As this is penned there is a strong likelihood of rain and a good chance that turf racing will be abandoned. The track was sealed yesterday, so we’re expecting a wet-fast surface. In the opener #7 Flexible Ethics looks well-spotted for a repeat score after a strong win in an identical race here in mid-February. The son of Harlan’s Holiday was above his conditions when capturing that restricted non-winners of three $16,000 claimer (he’d only won once up until that point) so there’s no reason to believe he can’t come back and do it again. His work tab since that race is healthy, Pedroza stays aboard, and the projected pace scenario looks comfortable. Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.

  

SECOND RACE (1:30 PT) – GRADE: B

 Single: 7-Ya Ya Girl

#7 Ya Ya Girl appears to have much in her favor in this seven furlong bottom-rung maiden claimer for older fillies and mares. She has several back figures that are better than par for this level, makes a favorable trainer switch to Peter Eurton, and clearly didn’t appreciate the all-weather surface in her last two outings up north. Recent workouts look sharp, the addition of top rider Prat is an excellent sign, and her modest rivals shouldn’t offer much resistance. She’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

THIRD RACE (2:03 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 10-Seedsandstemsagain

This race was carded for turf but as stated above, we have our doubts. If the race somehow manages to remain on grass, #10 Seedsandstemsgain should be a short priced favorite to secure his third straight score, this after failing to win in his first 13 lifetime outings. The vastly-improved son of Old Topper doesn’t have good dirt form, so if the race is indeed transferred to the main track, he’ll most likely come out. If that happens, we’ll simply pass the race.

 

FOURTH RACE (2:33 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 3-Dirt in Your Face; 4-Radio Silent; 6-All Star Parade

This is a fairly strong starter’s allowance main track miler event with three main contenders. The race probably will come down to who handles the projected wet-fast track the best. #3 Dirt in Your Face in fact received none when winning gate-to-wire from a bottom-rung field in late February; the margin was nearly 13 lengths and the speed figure was monstrous, far surpassing anything he’d previously achieved. Today we’ll find out if he can turn in two alike. He could be the controlling speed once again. #4 Radio Silent also earned a sharp speed figure when winning his most recent outing, doing so against a maiden $50,000 field that was considerably stronger than the bunch Dirt in Your Face defeated. The son of Candy Ride has a good stalking style, retains Desormeaux, and is the one to fear most. #6 All Star Parade also is worth tossing in; the Ron McAnally-trained colt earned a career top figure when second in a similar affair in February, has trained steadily since, and switches to Talamo. He should draft into a good pace-stalking spot and have every chance.

 

FIFTH RACE (3:05 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 1-Our First Girl; 4-Makena

 This main track first-level allowance mile affair for fillies and mares boils down to #1 Our First Girl and #4 Makena and both should be included in rolling exotic play. Our First Girl broke her maiden in gate-to-wire style in an off-the-turfer in mid-February, has trained sharply since, and seems likely to employ similar tactics today. Her numbers are solid, she retains Stevens, and looks very much like the controlling speed from the rail. Makena was impressive earning her diploma despite a slow start and a wide trip over this track and distance last month and shows a bullet half-mile workout at San Luis Rey Downs since that race to indicate another forward move is likely. It was her first start around two turns and the daughter of Pioneerof the Nile performed like a true router. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll press a bit with Makena on top.

 

SIXTH RACE (3:35 PT) – GRADE: B+

 Use: 4-Armored Car; 8-Indygo Holiday

#8 Indygo Holiday ran well for a high price tag two races back – he finished a close fourth after a wide trip in a sharp effort – but was overmatched in his next outing when well-beaten in a strong maiden special weight affair on grass. He’s back where he belongs today and a repeat of his run two races back looks good enough to spring a mild surprise. We’ll also use #4 Armored Car, a seven-race maiden from the Doug O’Neill barn who returns to his claim level with numbers that make him the one to fear most. He could be the controlling speed and given that kind of trip could get very brave.

 

SEVENTH RACE (4:05 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Comes the Dream; 5-Second Proposal; 9-Karma King

 This is another turf race that might have to be transferred to the main track. If it does, we like the chances of #9 Karma King to take this field gate-to-wire. The Gary Sherlock-trained gelding has excellent recent sprint form; however, his record around two turns isn’t nearly inspiring. Still, we like him best if this race is switched to dirt. #2 Comes the Dream, first off the claim for Adam Kitchingman, won a $16,000 non-winners of three main track miler earlier this meeting with a number that fits at this level; however, if the race stays on grass he’ll be a strong contender as well. The son of Lion Heart exits a live race and has an effective stalking style. #5 Second Proposal might be late-running sprinter – that’s all he’s been in his 22 race career – but he’s in sharp form and deserves a chance to prove that his late kick can be effective two-turning. Toss him in.

 

EIGHTH RACE (4:35 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Brother Soldier; 6-Out of Patience; 7-Justonemorething

The finale is a seven furlong sprint for $10,000 older horses; it’s a tough event made even tougher due to the uncertainty of the track condition. #2 Brother Soldier drops out of a much stronger $16,000 claimer and has numbers that make him a solid threat with this group. The Machowsky-trained gelding should be on or near the lead throughout. #6 Out of Patience drops to his lowest level ever and should improve; however, he’s always preferred to run second or third rather than win. Prat stays aboard, so that’s a positive. #7 Justonemorething, an $8,000 Gary Stute claim, comes off a decent runner-up effort and has numbers that put him in the picture; the veteran gelding always has liked this main track (first or second in six of nine career starts) and really won’t have to improve much to be in the thick of things.

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis April 8, 2016

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