Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis for June 19, 2016

Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

 

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass.  Top selection indicated in bold-face.

 

FIRST RACE (12:00 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-New Summit; 2-Bronzino; 8-Secreto Primero

The Sunday program begins earlier than usual at Noon due to the forecasted extreme heat that is expected to peak late in the afternoon. The opener is a starter’s allowance nine furlong turf event that seems fairly wide open on paper. #2 Bronzino ran well over this course in his U.S. debut in March when third in a similar event but failed to reproduce that effort on the main track in his most recent outing. He’s back on the lawn today and should regain his top form, so we’ll put him slightly on top. #1 New Summit, a close third down the hill last month, stretches out to a mile, lands the rail and switches to Tyler Baze. He’s unproven around two turns but has the pedigree to stay the trip, so we’ll make him a “must use” in rolling exotic play. #8 Secreto Primero returned off a long layoff to beat maiden claimers with a good number down the hill last month and is another that shouldn’t be inconvenienced by the added distance. A sharp recent work since that win indicates he’s set for another big effort. All three should be included in rolling exotic play.

 

SECOND RACE (12:33 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 5-Amazing Love; 6-Mo Soul; 7-I’d Be Sad an Blue

State-bred maiden-claiming juveniles sprint four and one-half furlongs in the second half of the early daily double. In a completely unclassified field, anything goes, so we’ll go three deep and hope to survive. #5 Amazing Love hails from the clever Steve Miyadi barn and has worked well enough to be considered a contender. Most first-timers from this barn don’t show their hand in the morning, so we suspect this colt will come out firing. #6 Mo Soul vans down from Pleasanton for his debut and this Terry Knight-trained gelding probably has some run. With good speed rider Marty Garcia taking the call, he represents stranger danger. #7 I’d Be Sad an Blue, a first-time gelding and adding blinkers, shows a bullet blow out at San Luis Rey Downs since his last start and may be better than shown. This drop from straight maiden company into a claimer won’t hurt his chances, either.

 

THIRD RACE (1:06 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 4-Long Hot Summer; 8-Singing Kitty

#8 Singing Kitty finds an excellent spot to regain her winning form in the third race, a strong allowance race over a mile on turf. A good second in the Fran’s Valentine Stakes over this course and distance last month, she’s trained in very sharp fashion for Matt Chew since and looks more than capable of producing the last run with her best effort. Rafael Bejarano stays aboard and has won on her in the past. #4 Long Hot Summer moves up a notch after a clever win down the hill three weeks ago; she’s stretching out today and probably will find herself on or near the lead throughout. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with Singing Kitty holding a decided edge on top.

 

FOURTH RACE (1:39 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 3-Royal Flush Babe; 4-Audacious Angel; 7-Sweetwater Gal

A little will go a long way in the fourth race, a maiden $75,000 claiming sprint for sophomore fillies. #3 Royal Flush Babe has trained better than her raw work out times would indicate and although trainer Ron Ellis doesn’t often win with first-time starters, this daughter of Colonel John may prove to be exception to the rule. If she runs to her works, she’ll be heard from late under top ride Flavien Prat, and at 6-1 on the morning line she’s worth a gamble. #7 Sweetwater Gal closed a gap in a hot straight maiden abbreviated sprint earlier this month and should produce a forward move today with an extra furlong to work with and the drop into a high priced claimer. Blinkers go on, Joe Talamo stays, and the daughter of Sky Mesa gives Ellis a second bullet to wire along with Royal Flush Babe. #4 Audacious Angel has been fairly close in straight maiden company but just can’t seem to break through. Today she surfaces for a tag and may have found her friends. Bejarano will have her running on strongly late.

 

FIFTH RACE (2:12 PT) – GRADE: A-

Single: #9 Papa Papa Papa

#9 Papa Papa Papa has been burning up the track in morning drills lately and appears to be a much better type off the long layoff than he was in a pair of modest efforts last fall. Drawn comfortably outside and catching a weak field of maiden claimers, the quick son of Forestry looks quite capable of dominating the field from start to finish. At 6-1 on the morning line and likely to go lower, he’s a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

SIXTH RACE (2:44 PT) – GRADE: C+

Single: 1-Cover Song

#1 Cover Song returned off a 10-month layoff for just her second career start and left her previous form behind with a very sharp downhill turf score vs. maiden fillies and mares last month. She stretches out to a mile, gets the good rail and retains Prat while stepping up to a first-level allowance event that seems well within her abilities. The stretch out to two-turns shouldn’t bother her in in the least, according to her pedigree. Let’s hope to get close to her morning line of 7/2 in the straight pool and also single the daughter of Fastnet Rock in rolling exotic play.

 

SEVENTH RACE (3:15 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 2-No Contingency; 3-Ain’t Misbehavin; 5-My Samurai Warrior

The seventh race is a difficult sprint for $16,000 claimers. The race drew just six entrants but at least three must be considered major contenders. #3 Ain’t Misbehavin looked good beating a bottom-rung $8,000 field last month, was claimed by sharp trainer Miyadi, and today reappears while being triple jumped in class in a sign of confidence. The son of Elusive Warning switches to Prat and should be rolling in the final furlong. #5 My Samurai Warrior, a $16,000 Mark Glatt claim, has figures that fit, though his 3-for-34 lifetime record hardly inspires confidence. We’ll toss him in. #2 No Contingency may be the quickest in the field and if he can shake loose early he could get brave late. We’ll have extra tickets with Ain’t Misbehavin on top but use all three in our rolling exotics.

 

EIGHTH RACE (3:49 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 3-Stays in Vegas; 4-Decked Out; 6-Be Mine

The Honeymoon Stakes is carded as the featured eighth race and matches several fillies that have seen each other before. #3 Stays in Vegas won the recent Senorita Stakes by a head over #6 Be Mine over a flat mile; today they meet at nine furlongs. They’re really hard to separate again. #4 Decked Out, fourth but beaten just a length in the Senorita, won the Providencia Stakes two races back over this course and distance, and may be able to get back on the winning track with today’s extra furlong to work with. Anyone of the three can win – perhaps Be Mine should get a very slight edge on top due to the distance – and all three must be included in rolling exotic play.

 

NINTH RACE (4:19 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 11-Big Bad Batman; 13-Bundesliga

The known element doesn’t inspire so let’s try a pair of newcomers in the finale, a bottom-rung maiden claiming extended sprint. #11 Big Bad Batman shows a few sneaky works at Golden Gate Fields and appears to arrive fit and ready for a big effort in a weak race. The barn is cagey and Bay Area pilot Cedillo takes the call. #13 Bundesliga is a Bob Baffert-trained first timer showing up for $20,000 after being purchased for $112,000 as a yearling. Clearly he’s not well regarded but the works look okay and since he hasn’t yet been exposed, he has to be included as well.

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis for June 19, 2016

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