Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis for June 3, 2016

Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

 

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass.  Top selection indicated in bold-face

 

FIRST RACE (2:00 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Beaumarchais; 2-Super Touch

Racing resumes Friday at Santa Anita with a three-day week of action, beginning with a maiden $75,000 claimer at a mile on the main track. Both #1 Beaumarchais and #2 Super Touch are stretching out for the first time and both have a right to handle this two-turn trip. The former, in the money in his last pair with steadily rising speed figures, should be on or near the lead throughout, while the latter, third when a just a head behind Beaumarchais in their common race May 19, figures in the battle every step of the way as well. They’re hard to separate and both have room to improve, so we’ll double the race in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Beaumarchais on top.

 

SECOND RACE (2:33 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 5-Green With Eddie; 7-Carville

#5 Green With Eddie has shown plenty of zip in preparing for his racing debut and lands an ideal spot to win at first asking in the second race, a state-bred abbreviated sprint for juveniles. He goes for the Nyquist team of Reddam, O’Neill, and Gutierrez, and as a son of Square Eddie he’s bred to win right now. We’ll put him on top but also include in rolling exotic play #7 Carville, a decent third up north in his debut and then subsequently purchased privately by clients of Jerry Hollendorfer. The son of Globalize exits a strong race for the level and should move forward with that experience behind him.

 

THIRD RACE (3:06 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 2-Hail Mary Play; 4-Spicy Blonde

Sophomore fillies entered to be claimed for $16,000 sprint six furlongs in the third race. #4 Spicy Blonde takes a nosedive in class after earning a career top speed figure when a good third in a $40,000 claimer at Los Alamitos in late April. The drop must be considered suspicious, but if the Peter Miller-trained daughter of Speightstown has one good one left she’ll be hard to beat. #2 Hail Mary Play is the logical alternative. She won at this level two races back, adds blinkers for the first time, and drilled a sharp hail mile with the hood on last week. The Mike Machowsky-trained daughter of Haynesfield has been off for two months but she won her debut so we know she can fire fresh.

 

FOURTH RACE (3:39 PT) – GRADE: B

Single: 7-Larocco

The fourth race is a seven furlong $10,000 claimer for fillies and mares. We’re going to zero in on #7 Larocco as a single; it’s either her or just about anybody else. The veteran mare knows how to win races and is especially effective at this elongated sprint trip; she had a nice blowout just a few days ago with Martin Pedroza aboard and the Mulhall-trained five-year-old should be able to settle early and then produce the last run. At 3-1 on the morning she offers reasonable value in the straight pool and as a rolling exotic single.

 

FIFTH RACE (4:12 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Entrechat; 6-Big Move

The fifth race is a downhill turf sprint for entry-level allowance distaffers; we’ll double the race and hope to get by. #6 Big Move was nosed out in a similar event over this course and distance last month but has come back to train very well since and should be able to make amends for her failure as the event money favorite. Rafael Bejarano stays aboard the Tim Yakteen-trained mare and should have her a comfortable pace-stalking position, ready to pounce when called upon. We’ll also include in our rolling exotics #2 Entrechat, always a late-threat and reunited with Flavien Prat, who has won on her in the past. She continues to train well for Neil Drysdale and should regain her best form in her first start in two months.

 

SIXTH RACE (4:44 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-C. C. Zipp; 4-Leveler; 7-Like That

Maiden special weight fillies and mares sprint the abbreviated distance of five and one-half furlongs with the comebacking #2 C. C. Zip likely to get plenty of support in her first outing since last October. She displayed plenty of early speed as a two-year-old, has trained better this time around for Jerry Hollendorfer, and looks likely to be the quickest of the quick. #4 Leveler, a decent runner-up in her debut last month, has every right to produce a forward move for trainer Phil D’Amato and worked very well in a team drill last week to indicate she’s ready for a major effort. #7 Like That, a $170,000 two-year-old-in-training purchase last year, finally makes it to the post for trainer Peter Miller and shows a series of good works at San Luis Rey Downs that should have her fit for a sharp effort. The daughter of Lonhro seems the most dangerous of the first time starters. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics and then press with C.C. Zipp on top.

 

SEVENTH RACE (5:15 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 5-Glacken Too

In the seventh race, #5 Glacken Too was highly impressive winning a second-level allowance sprint here last month, has trained well since, and should be set for another powerful effort in a field that lacks his kind of early speed. The D’Amato-trained horse retains Edwin Maldonado, and the figure he earned in his most recent victory, if repeated today, should be good enough for a repeat score. Listed at 7/2 on the morning line, the son of Smoke Glacken offers excellent value in the straight pool and can be used as well as a rolling exotic single.

 

EIGHTH RACE (5:39 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 8-Radiant Journey; 10-Summer Wine

The finale is another turf sprint, this one for first-level allowance fillies and mares bred in California. #10 Summer Wine is lightly-raced and improving, and earned a career top speed figure when an excellent runner-up under these conditions last month. She’s trained forwardly since that race, lands the cozy outside post, retains Gary Stevens, and should draft into an ideal second flight, stalking spot. #8 Radiant Journey, away since November, is training like she’s fit and ready for a big try for D’Amato (superior stats with layoff runners), finished a strong second in her only previous try down the hill, and is reunited with Martin Garcia, who has won on her in the past. The winner should be one of these two; we’ll give a very slight edge on top to Radiant Journey.

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis for June 3, 2016

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