Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (Dmr) for September 4, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

 

DEL MAR

Monday, September 4, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Shackalov; 6-General Interest; 8-Jump the Tracks

Forecast: The closing day opener, a straight-maiden California-bred sprint, brings back General Interest, a promising runner-up in his debut while earning a better-than-par speed figure for the level. The Hess barn has good stats with second-time maidens, so we’re expecting this juvenile to run at least as well and perhaps better today, especially with two nice works, including a solid 1:00 2/5 five furlong move, since raced. Shackalov finished third in the same race ‘Interest exits but had the benefit of a prior run. He hasn’t showN any early speed so far but should be running on late. Jump the Tracks is a first-timer from the clever Mullins barn with just a so-so work tab and thus is 15-1 on the morning line, but he’s better than that and is worth using somewhere.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 2:35 PT. Grade: C

Use: 2-Freddies Dream; 3-Oh Newman; 6-Accelerant

Forecast: Tough race, tread lightly. Freddies Dream seeks his third straight win but is dropping a notch in his first start off the claim, not normally a healthy sign, and shows no recorded works in almost a month, another red flag. However, Truman employs this maneuver frequently and has accumulated impressive stats with the first-off-the-claim angle. At 2-1 on the morning the Good Journey gelding isn’t offering much in the way of wagering value, so we’ll use him but not with a great deal of confidence. Oh Newman has been extremely popular at the claim box – he’s changed barns in each of his last three starts and most notably was claimed back by Puype two runs back – and today makes his first appearance for Pender (another with good stats with first-off-claim plays). However, the jockey switch from Prat to bug girl Werner hardly inspires. Accelerant moves up two levels following a deep-closing win over this track and distance 11 days ago for a low profile outfit. The 10-year-old gelding might react to the short turnaround but in a race full of question marks you have to use him.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 3:09 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Eric the Trojan; 3-Rocket Heat; 9-Zuri Chop

Forecast: This is a tough event with at least three legitimate contenders. Eric the Trojan is a powerful late-running turf sprinter when he’s on his game, and a repeat of his last race – a sharp, deep-closing performance with an electric final furlong – seems good enough to win right back.   Zuri Chop looked good winning under identical conditions in late July and has trained steadily since, including a noteworthy bullet five furlong drill last week. Nakatani stays aboard and will have him rolling late. Rocket Heat has been chasing tougher without success and is realistically dropped into a mid-level claimer where he might get loose on the lead and take this field a long way over a course he’s always loved.

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RACE 4: Post: 3:40 PT. Grade: B

Use:  5-Miss Riccochet; 7-Meiji; 11-Pretty Owl

Forecast: This is a better than par maiden special weight sprint for older fillies and mares, topped by the second-time starter Meiji, a strong runner-up to the ultra-talented Anonymity in her debut last month. She earned a very strong speed figure in the process, and while Hollendorfer has not had a good Del Mar meeting, he still has solid stats with second-timers, so this daughter of Warrior’s Reward should move forward (or, least, not regress). Bejarano stays aboard. Miss Riccochet ran very well over a sloppy track last winter at Santa Anita when second, beaten a head, but then disappeared. She returns for Glatt (strong stats with layoffs) and turned in a bullet five furlong gate drill last month to indicate her readiness. Pretty Owl lands a cozy outside post after being stuck inside in her first two outings and might appreciate patient handling today from Smith. Her debut effort – when second to subsequent winner Classy Tune – charts very well here.

 

RACE 5: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 3-Breezy Bee; 4-Retro; 9-Johansson

Forecast: This might be a fairly nice maiden special weight two-turn grass affair for juvenile fillies, but the proof, as they say, will be in pudding. Retro has trained like a very good prospect for Mandella and seems fit and ready for a major effort first time out. However, the Mandella babies have, as a whole, been a major disappointment this meeting. Maybe the barn can end the season on a good note. Breezy Bee has the benefit of a solid effort over the course when pretty much given a run and seems highly likely to produce a significant forward move with that race behind her. Johansson has put together a string of excellent workouts at San Luis Rey Downs and should be more than fit for a good effort, though this barn doesn’t have much of a record with first-timers. We’ll toss her in on a ticket or two while preferring Retro on top.

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RACE 6: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 3-Miss Sunset; 6-Classy Tune

Forecast: Classy Tune is rapidly developing with each start, is a perfect two-for-two over the Del Mar main track, and demolished a first-level allowance field with a giant speed figure in her most recent outing. The lightly-raced daughter of Maclean’s Music is quick but doesn’t need the lead to win and looks capable of continuing her rising star status despite the class hike into restricted stakes competition. Miss Sunset is perfect (3-for-3) over the Del Mar main track and already has won a stakes at the meeting. We’ll include her on a few tickets even though her speed figures don’t match up with Classy Tune.

 

RACE 7: Post 5:10 PT.  Grade: B+

Single: 3-Kathy’s Song

Forecast: This race has several possibilities, but rather than spread we’re going to take a stand with a price horse and simply try to be right. Kathy’s Song, highlighted on our Black Book show a couple of weeks ago, is wheeled back quickly in 15 days but if she can handle the short rest this lightly-raced daughter of Candy Ride can beat this field. Tenth in the Del Mar Oaks but shut off badly to lose all chance when making a dangerous move in the upper stretch, she clearly is better than the line will show and with clear sailing today seems capable of producing a winning late bid. At 8-1 on the morning line she offers excellent value both in the straight pool and in rolling exotic play.

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RACE 8: Post 5:40 PT.  Grade: C+

Use:  1-Soul Streit; 3-Run Away; 4-Tatters to Riches; 6-Bolt d’Oro

Forecast: Run Away is unbeaten in three starts, including two stakes win, but on pure numbers he’s no better than a few of these. The positive is that when he was put to pressure two races back he responded gamely and earned his best figure, so he might be the type that only does what is necessary. Tatters to Riches got away with slow fractions when winning his debut and the runner-up came back to be soundly beaten in his next start, but since then the son of Union Rags has looked spectacular in the morning and gives every indication than he’ll improve with experience and distance. Today we’ll find out what he’s made of. Bolt d’Oro didn’t break well in his debut, rushed up to force the pace and then responded in the drive to win fully extended when backed down to odds-on. He’s another that has trained very impressively since that early August race and seems certain to step forward off that outing. Soul Streit was another impressive maiden debut winner and deserves some consideration, though his rail post makes his task a bit more difficult.

 

RACE 9: Post 6:10 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Medaglia Gold; 6-Multiplayer; 7-Camino Song; 8-Klosters

Forecast: Let’s start off by saying we have mixed signals on Medaglia Gold, a major contender in this stakes race for juvenile fillies over a mile on turf. She was highly impressive beating maidens over this course and distance in late July and has been pointing for this race ever since, but a poor work August 20 (visually, at least) gives us great pause. We’ll use her, of course, but she strikes us as a type that will either win or run nowhere. So, who else should be considered? Klosters was a nice winner in her turf debut in England and was subsequently purchased privately; she’s trained steadily since arriving and should be a strong fit in this spot. Camino Song ran on willingly to be fourth in a promising debut in Ireland, gets Desormeaux, and is thoroughly unexposed at this stage. At 12-1 on the morning line she’s worth using. Multiplayer is a strong contender on the basis of her debut maiden win under these conditions last month. By Giant’s Causeway from a Dynaformer mare, she could develop into a very decent sort.

 

RACE 10: Post 6:40 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 4-Touching Rainbows; 6-Prime Issue

Forecast: The season finale is a salty entry-level allowance extended sprint. Touching Rainbows, vastly improved (as expected) since joining the D’Amato barn, ran off and hid from state-bred rivals last month and had the race franked when distant third place finisher Coils Gold came back to win Saturday. The race earned a giant speed figured – by far a career best – and the son of Aragorn has worked sharply since to indicate another forward move is possible. Prime Issue returns to his winning level and has speed figures that fit. He’ll be part of the pace throughout and is worth using as a back-up on a ticket or two.

 

SARATOGA

Monday, September 4, 2017

 (Note: due to uncertain track conditions we will have not have Saratoga selections today).

 

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Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (Dmr) for September 4, 2017

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