Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for October 9, 2016

USER GUIDELINES

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.


Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
B=Solid Play.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

BELMONT PARK
​Sunday, October 9, 2016​

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RACE 1: Post: 12:55 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Bea Bea; 9-Rescue Cat; 9-Flying K C

RACE 2: Post 1:28 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Frazil; 4-You Know I Know; 6-Chelios

RACE 3: Post 2:01 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Tale of the Heart; 5-Neoclassic; 7-Indebted
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RACE 4: Post 2:34 ET. Grade: B
Use: 7-Bogulator; 8-Run Blondie Run; 9-Elandress
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RACE 5: Post 3:07 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Love That Jazz; 5-Eye Luv Lulu; 6-Jet Black

RACE 6: Post 3:40 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Afleet Martini; 5-Feets of Strength; 12-Market Strength

RACE 7: Post 4:13 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 7-Moonlit Garden; 10-Pray for Bourbon
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RACE 8: Post 4:46 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 7-Summer Breezing; 8-Whiskey Seven

RACE 9: Post 5:19 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Whatstotalkabout; 6-Leaveematthegate


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SANTA ANITA
​Sunday, October 9, 2016


RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Spring Heat; 6-Chocolate Goddess; 9-Woot Woot

Juvenile starter allowance fillies usher in the Sunday program in a difficult sprint that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Woot Woot graduated in good style at Los Alamitos last month while earning a speed figure that makes her dangerous right back despite the class hike. She’s drawn comfortably outside, sports a healthy work tab at San Luis Rey Downs and should run at least as well and perhaps better today. Chocolate Goddess also earned her diploma at Los Al last month, doing so in good style with a career top numbers that makes her a fit in this league. Spring Heat isn’t fast on numbers but she seems to be a trier and probably has a bit of improving to do after beating maiden claimers at Los Alamitos. At 8-1 on the morning line she’s probably worth tossing in.

RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C
Single: 1-Mimis Big Boy

Bottom-rung maiden claimers meet over a route of ground in the second race, a poor heat with nothing to trust. Mimis Big Boy, a respectable runner-up in a similar event at Los Alamitos last month, has numbers that are good enough to win, and though he’s failed to hit the board in four prior outings over the Santa Anita main track, a little certainly will go a long way in this affair. Small ticket players can use him as a single; a better strategy might simply be to pass the race.

RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-My Uncle Al; 3-King’s Palace; 7-Admiral’s Club

Maiden state-bred older horses sprint six furlongs in the third race. My Uncle Al is the best of the known element, having finished a closing second in a promising debut at Del Mar in August. However, at 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, the Puype-trained gelding won’t offer much in the way of wagering value. King’s Palace is a first-timer bred for speed and showing a series of sharp training track drills leading up to this event. The barn doesn’t win very often with debut runners but in a modest event this son of Cyclotron probably is worth including somewhere on your ticket. Admiral’s Club has two poor efforts on his resume in much tougher races; the recent workouts show some spark so at 15-1 on the morning line he’s consideration.

​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Pearl de Vere; 3-Molly’s Honour

Pearl de Vere seeks her third straight win and seems well-spotted to extend her streak. First or second in five of eight prior outings over the tricky Hillside Turf Course, the veteran mare catches a below par field for the level and anything close to her best effort should be more than good enough. Molly’s Honor is worth a look, at least as a back-up. She’s a first-off-the-claim for Carava and a route-to-sprint play with numbers that make her competitive. The switch to Prat is another positive move.

RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Laura’s Babydoll; 5-Cuatro Rosas; 10-Hotflickarue

There’s not much to work with in the fifth race, a bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint for juvenile fillies. Laura’s Babydoll represents inside speed and although she’s been vulnerable in the final furlong in each of her previous three starts, the daughter of Thorn Song could take this a very long way if she can leave cleanly from the rail. Hotflickarue lands the cozy outside post and ran very well to be second at this level two races back. She should be prominent throughout with the switch to Desormeaux. Cuatro Rosas is an intriguing first-timer by Coil with an okay series of workouts for hot trainer Machowsky. She’s a “must use” in rolling exotic play at 8-1 on the morning line.

​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Temple Keys; 6-Glory Bound; 9-Over Par

The sixth race is a grass grab bag with several possibilities. Use as many as you can afford to in rolling exotic play. Over Par will be a late threat and with good racing luck and decent pace up front he could produce the final run. This is his second start off a layoff so a forward move is likely and he may have a bit more upside than most of the others who have been stuck at this level for so long. Temple Keys is just one-for-16 and certainly not one to bank on, but he’s been in the frame in his last two starts against essentially the same bunch he’s facing today and probably will be heard from again in the final furlong. Glory Bound switches to Prat and figures to be on or near the lead most of the way. He could take this field a long way if not pressured early.

​RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 11-California Clone

California Clone ran huge in his debut when a sharp runner-up in a strong race at Del Mar but then failed at 50 cents on the dollar when weakening late to be third in his next outing in late August. He failed to beak sharply in the latter event and it cost him; today, if he can leave with his field, the McCarthy-trained gelding should be able to dominate from gate to wire. At 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, the son of Lucky Pulpit won’t any value in the straight pool but we can use as a rolling exotic single.

​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 4-Luminance; 5-Gloryzapper

The L. A. Woman Stakes, a graded sprint for fillies and mares, didn’t come up particularly strong. Luminance, a winner of an allowance race at Del Mar in late July but unraced since, looks best on paper and is 9/5 on the morning line. The Baffert-trained filly has won half of her six career starts and two of three sprint races, so she’s the one to beat based on her excellent, career-top speed figure earned in her most recent victory. A series of recent sharp workouts should have her first and ready. Gloryzapper turns back to a sprint and probably is most effective around one turn. She’s pretty fast on numbers on her best day and in a field without a whole lot of early zip should be comfortably placed on or near the lead.

RACE 9: Post 5:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 5-Mittersill; 8-Feldini; 10-Alaskan Son

The finale is stronger-than-par middle distance turf event for entry-level allowance horses. Though he’s drawn poorly outside, Alaskan Son deserves top billing based on his excellent Del Mar form, a maiden win off the plane and a solid third place effort, beaten just a length, when blocked in the stretch that cost him valuable momentum. The D’Amato-trained gelding switches to Prat, has looked good in the morning of late, and has proven he can fire off brief layoffs. There’s value here at 7/2 on the morning line if you can get it. Mittersill ran very well in his U.S. debut at Del Mar, finishing a strong third when rallying into the teeth of slow fractions to be beaten a half-length in a good race for the level. If he can produce even a slight forward move, he’ll be the thick of it. Feldini is a progressive colt with rising numbers and good recent workouts. At 10-1 on the morning line, he’s a “must use.”

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for October 9, 2016

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