Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Bel) for June 2, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Friday, June 2, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Single: 2-Rocky’s Show

The Friday opener is a $16,000 claiming sprint restricted to 3-year-olds. Rocky’s Show is a Phoenix invader with decent sprint form; the lightly-raced son of Rocky Bar earned a figure two runs back that could win this race, and if you draw a line through his two two-turn efforts he looks even better. If for no other reason than we really have no confidence in any of the other entrants in this modest event, we’ll put the Val Brinkerhoff-trained gelding on top as a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 5-Red Carpet Cat; 8-Zachian

Bottom-rung maiden claimers sprint five furlongs in the second race; we’ll go two-deep while preferring Red Carpet Cat on top. The Vann Belvoir-trained gelding missed as the favorite in his last start in a similar spot but was more than five lengths clear of the rest, and this slightly shorter trip gives him a better chance to hang on. Zachian exits the same race and finished far back, but had a rough trip and certainly can do better. Today he’s drawn more comfortably outside, so we expect the Jack Carava-trained gelding to run back to his race before last, a second place finish that if repeated today could be good enough to win.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Westwood’s Wizard; 5-Patience ofa Saint

The Pick-6 begins with the third race, a maiden claiming downhill turf sprint that offers two main contenders. Westwood’s Wizard earned good numbers in two prior grass efforts – both two-turn affairs – and we suspect he’s most effective sprinting. The Hard Spun colt earned a solid figure when third in a recent dirt sprint at this level, and if he improves at all with the return to turf he should be capable of beating this field. Patience ofa Saint has the blinkers off angle we like and also is facing claimers for the first time, so improvement is likely. Third in straight maiden company over this course and distances three runs back, the son of Square Eddie should show his best stuff today. Let’s give Westwood’s Wizard a slight edge on top but use both in our rolling exotics.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: X

Single: 4-Desert Madam

The fourth race is a starter’s handicap for $10,000 level fillies and mares over a middle distance on the main track. It’ll be interesting to see if Desert Madam can successfully tote her 131-pound impost. Overmatched in the Bayakoa Handicap behind Vale Dori when last seen in December, the Bill Spawr-trained mare has trained steadily for her comeback and has shown the ability to win off layoffs in the past, so we’ll assume she’s fit and ready. She offers no wagering value but really should out-class this field, weight and all.

 

RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Captain Ron; 5-Gotnoquit; 8-Mucho Chrome

The late Pick-4 begins with a split of the third race, a maiden claiming sprint down the Hillside course that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Mucho Chrome earned a career top speed figure when runner-up in a main track mile event last month and is being wheeled back on short rest by new trainer Alfredo Marquez. The Macho Uno gelding lands the cozy outside post, switches to Martin Pedroza, and tries turf for the first time. At 9/2 on the morning line, he’s worth a gamble. Gotnoquit, third in both of his prior starts over the downhill course, has rising numbers and is eligible to produce another forward move in his second start off a layoff. The Mike Puype-trained gelding has a good stalking style and should have every chance from the top of the lane to the wire. Captain Ron flashed ability in straight maiden company at Golden Gate Fields in January when second in an okay race, but then disappeared. He returns for tag – not usually a healthy sign – and his rail post does him no good, but the Doug O’Neill-trained should like the turf so we’ll toss him in on a ticket or two.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 2-Schulace; 7-Hit the Seam; 8-Drama Is Overrated

Maiden state-bred juveniles sprint four and one-half furlongs. Schulace drilled with recent runaway maiden winner Drizzy (see workout) on May 15 and seemed to be going at least as well if not better with his stablemate that day. Reportedly, the son of Champ Pegasus got sick and missed a bit of time after that move but should be primed and ready today for trainer Mike Machowsky. Drama Is Overrated has a few good works to his credit and should be live for clever trainer Steve Miyadi, who won with a first-time starting two-year-old yesterday. Hit the Seam is bred for speed (Square Eddie) and shows a short but sneaky work tab at San Luis Rey Downs. He’s worth including as well. We’ll prefer Schulace on top and have an extra ticket or two keying him on top.

 

RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use:  3-Boozer; 5-Tiz a Billy; 6-Bombard

The featured seventh race is a fairly contentious turf sprint for second-level allowance horses. Boozer is a tough-as-nails old pro making his first start since October for trainer Mark Glatt and the work tab indicates this son of Unusual Heat should be ready for a big effort. His form over the Santa Anita lawn (first or second in 10 of 16 career starts) is admiral and makes him the one to beat. Bombard moves up a notch after a highly-rated score over this course and distance in his comeback last month; he earned a career top speed figure in the process and a similar effort today makes him a contender right back. Tiz a Billy was no match for runaway winner Roy H in an off-the-turf affair last month but he’s back on grass today and should regain his best form. The son of Tizway is a tad slow in the speed figure department when compared to the other main contenders but he clearly loves the course and should at least get a piece of it. Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics while preferring Boozer on top.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: C

Use: 1-Gato Dolce; 2-Parched; 4-Vow’s Son; 5-Specimen

The finale, a bottom-level maiden claiming main track mile event, is a mess that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. We’ll go four deep but if you can afford to spread a bit more, go right ahead.  Gato Dolce stretches out for the first time – he’s bred to get the trip – and has numbers that are better than par. On the negative side, he’s been a beaten favorite in his last four starts and clearly isn’t one to trust. A recent bullet workout is noteworthy, so we’ll use him one more time (it’s truly now or never). Vow’s Son is re-equipped with blinkers while plummeting to the $20,000 level and may have found his friends. He’s competitive on numbers, so you have to use him. Specimen stretches out again, has speed figures that fit, and should be a strong pace presence throughout. He’s an 11-race maiden but not much improvement will be needed to beat this group. Parched is a big number on the morning line (20-1), is bred to route and has two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern that we prefer, and also has been working much better of late for a capable outfit. Throw him in.

 

BELMONT PARK

Friday, June 2, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 3-Freudian Flip; 6-What a Catch

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​​RACE 2: Post 2:01 ET. Grade: B

Use: 3-Three Eighty Eight; 4-Sunset Ridge

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RACE 3: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 6-Professor Snape; 7-Mo Focused

​​​RACE 4: Post: 3:04 ET. Grade: C

Use: 1-Pop Rocks Lady; 3; City Section; 7-B Three; 12-Thrice

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​RACE 5: Post 3:36 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 2-Theaterintheound; 6-Piquet

​​​RACE 6: Post 4:09 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1-Poshky; 7-Get Jets

​​RACE 7: Post 4:41 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Jcs American Dream; 4-Flick of an Eye; 8-Tahoe Tigress

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​​​RACE 8: Post 5:13 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 1-Glory to Kitten; 4-Grateful; 9-Lottie

RACE 9: Post 5:45 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 3-Wondermeister; 5-Honor and Pleasure; 12-Awesome Anthony

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Bel) for June 2, 2017

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