Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for Dec. 29, 2016

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.  

B=Solid Play.  

C=Least preferred, or pass.  

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Thursday, December 29, 2016

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 6-Plastered

Plastered is raised from $40,000 to $75,000 by new owner/trainer Jerry Hollendorfer in quest of her third straight score. A winner sprinting and routing, from off-the-pace and on the lead, and on turf, dirt, and all-weather, the daughter of Wilburn is about as consistent and versatile as they come. A recent five furlong workout (click here to view) in 1:00 2/5 in company with her talented juvenile stable mate Princess Julia (who finished a strong second opening day) indicates she’s spot on for another forward move and with Flavin Prat taking the call she’s likely to draft into a perfect pace-stalking spot. At 5/2 on the morning line she’s a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.

​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Magic Taste; 8-Twirling Tiger

Starter’s allowance sprinters meet over six furlongs in the second half of the early daily double. Twirling Tiger returns protected for trainer Tim Yakteen in his first start since March and a steady, healthy recent work tab should have him fit and ready. Drawn comfortably outside and switching to Prat, the Twirling Candy gelding projects to draft into a good pace pressing position and have every chance. Magic Taste exits a very fast, highly-rated race won by razor sharp Alley Boss and doesn’t appear to have anybody in here quite that good to worry about. On pure numbers he’s a strong fit, but that zero-for-10 lifetime mark over the Santa Anita main track (and his 1-for-19 career record) certainly is a cause for some concern. We’ll use him as a back-up or a saver while preferring Twirling Tiger on top.

RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 10-Burn Me Twice; 12-Kenzou’s Rhythm

The Pick-6 begins with a modest maiden claiming sprint for juveniles. Burn Me Twice flashed good speed vs. tougher in his debut before packing it in; the Wilburn gelding drops a notch in class, adds blinkers, retains Martin Pedroza, and seems likely to stick much better against this group. Three steady workouts since his early December outing is a positive note, so we’re assuming he’ll be fitter and tougher today for the clever Bill Spawr outfit. Kenzou’s Rhythm, a route-to-sprint play for the Phil D’Amato barn, is a fit on figures and will have clear sailing from his outside post. Tyler Baze stays aboard and with three sharp drills on his resume since his last outing, the son of Algorithms clearly is doing well. Let’s try to get past this race using just these two, with a slightly preference on top going to Burn Me Twice.

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Ucanthankmelater; 7-Budokan; 10-Long Game

The fourth race is another maiden claimer, this one for $30,000 two-year-olds at a mile. Long Game gets the worst of the draw but may be good enough to overcome it based on his steadily improving speed figures and the switch to Prat. The son of Pleasantly Perfect is a one-paced grinder that has shown he can act at this trip, so with any kind of good racing luck he may be able wear down the leaders late. Budokan earned a number two races back that makes him highly competitive and this move from straight maiden to maiden claiming represents a monumental class drop for the Hard Spun gelding, who will race with blinkers for the first time. If he can run at all, he’ll show it today. Uncanthankmelater performed well against similar rivals over this main track during the autumn season, shows a sharp recent half mile workout earlier this month, and is reunited with Kent Desormeaux, who rode the gelding when he earned a career top speed figure three races back. Not much improvement will be needed to put him in the thick of things throughout.

RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Shehastheritestuff; 8-Mai Tai

Top billing in this Hillside Turf Course first-level allowance affair goes to the recent impressive Del Mar maiden winner Shehastheritestuff. Clearly most effective when held up early and allowed to run late, the daughter of Unusual Heat left her previous form behind with a visually pleasing victory last month and will be hard to beat right back if she can turn in two alike. Mai Tai, first or second in four of five career starts and a strong fit in the speed figure department, can be effective at any distance. Desormeaux will have her doing her best work in the final furlong. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Q. T.’s Tribute; 6-Dr. Troutman; 9-Royal Seeker

This main track maiden special weight event is restricted to state-bred juveniles, and appears to be another wide open affair. Dr. Troutman ran a winning race in defeat when missing by a head in a similar affair at Del Mar on turf with a career top number; it remains to be seen if he can be equally effective on dirt but his recent workouts are promising. The son of Vronsky has upside that most of the others in the field do not. Royal Seeker is strictly the one to beat based on his strong runner-up effort over this track and distance during the fall season. He finished fifth in the same race Dr. Troutman exits but this return to dirt could be very much to his benefit. Q. T.’s Tribute ran well to be second in his only prior outing on dirt and in race lacking in pace he should be within striking range throughout.

​​RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 1-Roman Tizzy; 8-Rough Passage; 9-Willing to Travel

The seventh race is another difficult affair, this one for $10,000 older claimers at a flat mile. Roman Tizzy may be as good as any; the Vladimir Cerin-trained gelding drops to his lowest level ever, lands the rail, switches to Rafael Bejarano and shows several decent races during his career over the Santa Anita main track. Willing to Travel plummets in class, removes blinkers, and makes his first start as a gelding, so he’s very likely to improve a lot against this group. The Ian Kruljac-trained son of Pleasantly Perfect must overcome the extreme outside draw, but has several back numbers good enough to win. Rough Passage, exiting the same starter’s allowance race as Roman Tizzy earlier this month at Los Alamitos, does his best running on the front end and if he can shake clear early he might get brave. He’s back with Martin Pedroza, who has gotten good run out of him in the past.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Single: 5-Journey Home

Journey Home is unbeaten in two starts and just beat a similar field at Del Mar in the Jimmy Durante S.-G3 on turf at this one mile trip. The daughter of War Front can really turn it on late and with good racing luck she should be along in time. At 7/2 on the morning line The Graham Motion-trained juvenile offers value both in the straight pool and as a rolling exotic single.

GULFSTREAM PARK

Thursday, December 29, 2016

​RACE 1: Post 12:35 ET. Grade: C

Use: 1-Thanks God; 2-Mechanics First; 5-Over Limit

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​​RACE 2: Post 1:04 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Case Dismissed; 3-Guantanamera; 9-Sassy Sierra

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RACE 3: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 3-He’s the One; 5-Little Matt; 8-Asked and Answered

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​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:02 ET. Grade: X

Single: 2-Alsterone

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​RACE 5: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Reagan’s Odyssey; 7-Debbie’s Tude

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:02 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Summer Scamp; 4-Extreme Justice; 5-America’s Kitten

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​​RACE 7: Post 3:32 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 5-Wilshire Star; 9-Cousin Tino; 12-Giant’s Voice

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​​​RACE 8: Post 4:02 ET.  Grade:  X

Single: 7-Elysea’s World

RACE 9: Post 4:03 ET.  Grade: C

Use: 5-Twizzle; 10-Soyouthinkuraromeo; 11-Starship Apollo

RACE 10: Post: 4:34 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 5-Later; 8-Stolen Sunday; 12-Parkerelizabeth

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for Dec. 29, 2016

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