Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for Feb. 18, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Saturday, February 18, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Sly Humor; 3-Discreta

The opener is a maiden $50,000 claimer for sophomore fillies and appears to have two main contenders, both trained by Jerry Hollendorfer. Sly Humor is a first-off-the-claim play and on paper the best of the known element; however, she’s been a beaten favorite in her last pair and probably isn’t one to trust. With a big break in the weights, she deserves one more chance, especially when making her first start for a barn that hits with 26% and produces a flat-bet profit with the first-out claim angle. Hollendorfer’s other entrant, Discreta, had a decent runner-up effort last November at Del Mar for a different barn and is training like a better type this time around for her new stable. With Flavien Prat aboard, the daughter of Discreetly Mine looks extremely live. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Discreta on top.

​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Lambo Luxx; 7-Atta’ Boy Woody

The second race, originally scheduled for turf, will be run on a wet main track and likely will have at least a few off-the-program scratches. Tread lightly. Lambo Luxx gets in with a feather, has a solid recent effort over the track and will be doing his best work in the final furlong. With Runaway Groom on the bottom of his pedigree he should like an off track. Atta’ Boy Woody is another that should benefit from the surface switch; the veteran gelding has no turf form to speak of but under these conditions shouldn’t be inconvenienced. The son of Atticus is a fit on numbers, has the route-to-sprint angle we like, and should be prominent throughout. These are the two we’ll prefer but rolling exotic player should use as many as they can afford to.

RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Indavidualist; 4-Denman’s Call

First-level allowance sprinters meet over six furlongs in the third race, a difficult affair over an off track that the majority of the entrants have never competed over. Denman’s Call is a second-off-a-layoff play for the Doug O’Neill stable, which boasts superior stats with this angle. He’s a past-classer exiting a strong race and looks capable of handling this assignment. Indavidualist is better than his last shows when he was forced to race over the deeper part of the track and never really could land a blow. The lightly-raced gelding continues to impress in the morning and could easily produce a significant forward move. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 6-Momma’s Bay Boy; 7-Surf Shack; 8-West Coast

The fourth race is a strong two-turn maiden event for 3-year-olds and it should take a pretty good colt to win it. Surf Shack may be just that. The son of Malibu Moon finished fifth last summer at Del Mar in a hot maiden sprint and then disappeared; he returns with a string of very impressive workouts for the Desormeaux brothers and looks cranked up for a huge effort over a wet track he’s bred to like. He’s clearly our top pick at 7/2 on the morning line. However, two others in here deserve consideration as well. West Coast is a first-timer from the Bob Baffert barn with workouts that indicate he has plenty of talent while Momma’s Baby Boy adds blinkers and owns the two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern that should have him primed for a significant forward move.

RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 2-I Can Do This

The fifth race originally was carded for turf but now will be contested over the main track. There’s likely to be a few late scratches. I Can Do This was given a nice sprint prep last month and should improve considerably for trainer Mark Glatt, whose record with second-time starters is off the charts. The pedigree okay’s both an off track and a distance of ground, and recent workouts indicate this son of Empire Way has some upside that most of the others in here don’t. At 8-1 on the morning line he’s a straight play and single; however, rolling exotic play may choose to use some savers in a race with plenty of question marks.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use:  2-Nextdoorneighbor; 3-Ain’t Misbehavin; 6-City Steel

Ain’t Misbehavin is solid in the speed figure department and may be the one to beat in this rarely run starter’s handicap.   The Vladimir Cerin-trained gelding is reunited with Kent Desormeaux, who has won twice with him in the past, and if he handles the going he’ll be dangerous from off the pace. City Steel must pack high weight of 124 lbs. is his first-off-the-claim for Rafael Becerra, but he’s an wet track specialist (two wins, two seconds in four starts) and should draft into an ideal pace-stalking position. Nextdoorneighbor is a pro’s pro but it remains to be seen whether he can perform as well for trainer Steve Knapp as he did for Peter Miller. The 10-year-old gelding is a perfect one-for-one over an off track but seems most effective sprinting, though he did win a two-tuner at Los Alamitos when in the Miller barn two races back. Let’s try to get by using just these three in rolling exotic play.

​​RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 1-Daring Darling; 6-Tangled Up in Ju

Daring Darling isn’t a quick sort and could find traffic trouble from the rail in this six furlong sprint, but she’s good enough to win with decent racing luck and rates a slight edge on top in this low-level, restricted (nw-2) claimer for older fillies and mares. The Hollendorfer-trained daughter of Tiz Wonderful shouldn’t have any issues with the wet track and with only five career starts may have further room for improvement. Tangled Up in Ju takes a significant class drop and may return to form after showing some spark in a bullet workout over the training track five days ago, so we’ll toss her in.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade:  C+

Use: 2-Lily Pod; 9-Juno; 11-Wild At Heart

The Buena Vista Stakes has been moved to the main track, so we’re expecting a number of late scratches. Juno continues to impress in the a.m. and seems likely to produce a forward move for new trainer Neil Drysdale in her first with Lasix following a string of sharp workouts. Wild at Heart clearly will benefit from the surface switch and, assuming she stays in the race, should be a major player, though we suspect she’s much effective around one turn. Lily Pod looks overmatched on paper but she could be lone speed in her first try around two turns and is a perfect one-for-one on an off track, so you should include her as well.

​RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Single: 7-Unlikely Story

Nothing would surprise us in the finale, a maiden claiming two-turner for 3-year-olds. Unlikely Story can finish a little bit, adds blinkers, and has a pedigree that should allow improvement over a wet track. Let’s just say he’s as good as any, so we’ll put him on top and hope for the best at 8-1 on the morning line. Clearly, this is a spread race, so use as many as your budget allows.

 

 

GULFSTREAM PARK

Saturday, February 18, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 12:00 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Accepting; 5-Taperge

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​​RACE 2: Post 12:30 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Global Magician; 7-Gran the Man

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RACE 3: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Classic Act; 4-Ballyhoo Moon; 5-Sierra Love

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​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:30 ET. Grade: B

Single: 2-Curlin’s Approval

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​RACE 5: Post 2:00 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Over the Limit; 7-Tiz Bobby; 8-Dave Hoeght

​​​RACE 6: Post 2:30 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Little United; 4-Springdetti

​​RACE 7: Post 3:01 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 3-County Court; 8-Not in Charge; 12-Secretary At War

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​​​RACE 8: Post 3:32 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 7-Psalmody; 9-Cuddle Kitten

RACE 9: Post 4:03 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 3-Patch; 5-Take Your Guns; 13-Newman

RACE 10: Post: 4:34 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Luck of the Kitten; 6-Tombelaine; 11-Unbridled Ocean

 

RACE 11: Post: 5:05 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Moment of Delight; 9-Sophia’s Song

 

RACE 12: Post: 5:35 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 3-Puissant; 5-Delta Prince; 9-Tricked Up

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for Feb. 18, 2017

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