Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for Feb. 2, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Thursday, February 2, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Red Carpet Cat; 6-Not Chopped Liver

A new week of racing begins with a maiden $50,000 claiming abbreviated sprint for 3-year-olds. Not Chopped Liver just missed in a solid debut at Del Mar in November when pressing the pace and then giving way grudgingly near the wire to wind up second. He returns for Art Sherman as a first-time gelding and sports a work tab that should have him ready to fire a big shot off the bench. We’ll put the Stay Thirsty gelding on top but also include in our rolling exotics Red Carpet Cat, also a second-time starter after finishing an okay fourth despite a slow start against a slightly stronger group on New Year’s Day. The Discreet Cat colt has trained well enough in the interim to expect a forward move and Rafael Bejarano stays aboard.

​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Westmont; 4-R Cha Cha; 5-Burn Me Twice

The second race is a starter optional claimer at five and one-half furlongs and looks fairly competitive; we’ll spread the race using three in our rolling exotics. Burn Me Twice crushed a maiden $30,000 field in late December with a good number; in a sign of confidence trainer Bill Spawr protects him today and with a two sharp recent half mile works the son of Wilburn looks ready for a major effort. Westmont is a fit on numbers, has a prior win over the track and should be prominent throughout from the rail. Despite low profile connections he’s a major player and a “must use” in rolling exotic play. R Cha Cha looked very sharp in a recent gate drill and probably is better than his last shows over a muddy track he may not have cared for. His strong runner-up effort two runs back charts very well in this spot.

RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 8-Gosofar; 9-Evicted

The third race kicks off the Pick-6 that offers a nice carryover pool of $71,437. Evicted has routed like he’d actually prefer to sprint and today gets his first chance after six previous two-turn efforts. The son of Artie Schiller lands the good outside post and looks capable of drafting into a good mid-pack position and then rallying when called upon. This could be an ideal trip for the Tim Yakteen-trained colt so we’ll put him on top while also including Gosofar in our rolling exotics. The son of Aragon is bred to be move up considerably on the lawn and in his first try grass the Adam Kitchingman trained gelding may do just that. Joe Talamo should have him on or near the lead throughout.

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 8-Pop Pop’s Pizza; 9-Metrocity

The fourth race is an inscrutable bottom-rung maiden claimer for older horses; anything goes so use as many as you can afford to. Metrocity is somewhat unexposed, having run just twice, and returns from a year layoff for trainer Vladimir Cerin. The son of Songforaprayer displayed good zip before fading in a pair of races up north over the Golden Gate Fields all-weather surface and could easily be a better type this time around. The works are encouraging. Pop Pop’s Pizza has some zip, though he’s hasn’t shown much of an inkling to stick around when it matters. He makes a trainer switch to Bill Morey, so maybe that will help. These are the two we’ll include in our rolling exotics, but not with any degree of confidence.

RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 7-Anita Partner; 9-Tiz Adore

The late Pick-4 looks like a challenging four-race scheme, but one worth playing. The fifth race, a starter allowance mile turf event for fillies and mares, appears to be a nice spot for Anita Partner. The lightly-raced Irish-bred mare can produce a good late kick and should fire a big shot fresh. A fast-finishing but too late fourth in a hot sprint in her most recent start, she’s stretching out today to a better distance and retains Tyler Baze, who should have her rolling in the final furlong. With good luck and a decent pace up front she can get up in time. Tiz Adore has improving speed figures for trainer John Shirreffs and a prior win over this course and distance. She’s looked good in the morning of late and seems the likely favorite and one to beat. We’ll prefer Anita Partner on top but use both in our rolling exotics.

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 6-Filly On Fire; 7-Little Big Lovely

Mid-grade claiming fillies and mares sprint six furlongs in the sixth race. Filly On Fire, freshened since December and remaining above her claim level, returns to her favorite track (first or second in five of eight career starts) and looks set for a big try following a sharp couple of recent workouts. The Mark Glatt-trained mare does her work when on or near the lead throughout. Little Big Lovely, second in a similar spot over a wet fast track earlier in the meeting, usually lands in the frame and has figures that make her a threat to win it all. The Jack Carava-trained veteran also is working well, so we expect her to fire one of her better shots. Filly On Fire gets top billing and we’ll have an extra ticket or two keying her in the rolling exotics.

​​RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade:  C+

Use: 2-Conquest Farenheit; 3-Big Gray Rocket

Conquest Farenheit makes his first start since being purchased at auction in November for $735,000 and appears to be training well enough to win in his California debut for hot trainer Peter Miller. An impressive series of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs should have the lightly-raced colt fit and ready; however, both of his Canadian races were on turf so he still has to prove he can handle dirt. Big Gray Rocket has been burning up the track for trainer Bob Baffert while getting cranked up for his first start since finishing a weakening fourth in the Champagne S.-G1 at Belmont Park last fall. The son of Tapit will appreciate the class relief, but we’re not totally convinced he’ll be as good two-turning as he is sprinting. We’ll find out today. The race offers little to no wagering value, so for rolling exotics purposes we’ll double the race but otherwise pass.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade:  B

Use: 5-Frenzified; 6-Ryans Charm; 7-Queen Blossom

The Astra II Stakes was supposed to be run earlier this meeting but was postponed due to wet weather. This 12-furlong grass affair for fillies and mares looks like a fairly strong affair with a number of legitimate contenders. Ryans Charms performed admirably in the Breeders’ Cup Filly Mare Turf-G1 in her first start since being imported from Peru when finishing a willing sixth while beaten less than five lengths behind Queen’s Trust. Obviously, this is a considerably easier assignment and her recent workouts for Paddy Gallagher are encouraging. Let’s put her on top but also use Queen Blossom, unplaced with a troubled trip in her U.S. debut in the American Oaks in December but with plenty of room to improve; and Frenzified, capable of acting at this level on her best day and making a pivotal jockey switch to Mike Smith, who we expect will give her the patient ride she needs.

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GULFSTREAM PARK

Thursday, February 2, 2017

​RACE 1: Post 12:35 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Beautyofaday; 6-A Square to Spare; 7-Ventina

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​​RACE 2: Post 1:04 ET. Grade: B

Single: 3-Fletcher Is Golden

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RACE 3: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B

Single: 4-Majestic Maiara

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:02 ET. Grade: B

Single: 6-Gone Jak

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​RACE 5: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Noble Dave; 4-Fifty Eight O G; 6-Duel At Dusk

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:02 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 3-Guilded Warrior; 6-Rollin Smoke; 7-Dream Trip

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​​RACE 7: Post 3:32 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 4-Hassah; 5-Kenitra; 6-Glory to Kitten

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​​​RACE 8: Post 4:02 ET.  Grade:  B

Use: 5-Travis County; 8-Mutazen; 9-Sympatico

RACE 9: Post 4:32 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Apologynotaccepted; 5-Red River Heidi; 6-My Life for You

RACE 10: Post: 5:02 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-High Security; 4-Blue Harbor; 5-St. Louie

 

RACE 11: Post: 5:32 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 6-Two Step Flor; 8-Sweet Butterfly; 10-I Will Be Free

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for Feb. 2, 2017

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