Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for Jan. 27, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Friday, January 27, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C+

Single: 5-La Petite Fleur

Nothing inspires in this bottom-rung maiden claimer for older fillies and mares, so let’s try a fresh face. La Petite Fleur has trained reasonably well and should be plenty fit for a good effort first crack out of the box. It’s an educated guess that she can run a little, and not much more will be needed. Tread lightly.

​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Very Hot; 2-Let Me Flatter You

The second is another maiden claimer, this one for $30,000 3-year-old fillies over a distance of ground. Let Me Flatter You was almost four clear of the rest when nailed right on the money in a similar event earlier this month. Not much better will be needed to handle this group, but at 6/5 on the morning line she offers little in the way of value. Very Hot stretches out for the first time and should be forwardly placed from the rail. The barn has strong stats with the sprint-to-route angle, so if the favorite is to get upset, this is the one most likely to do it. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.

RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Too Fast to Pass; 4-Drover Crazy; 5-W. Giles

W. Giles returns in a $40,000 claimer so he must be doing very well; the speedy gelding hasn’t been out since last March but is training like he hasn’t lost a step. He’s run well fresh in the past and should be on the pace from the get-go. Too Fast to Pass demolished a $32,000 band on New Year’s Day and should have every chance to repeat in his present form. Drover Crazy was in too tough when a distant third earlier this month but is realistically spotted today and rates a big look off his highly-rated win two runs back. Let’s prefer W. Giles on top but use all three in our rolling exotics.

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Gypsy’s Rule; 6-Miss Bliss

The fourth race, a restricted (nw-3) $16,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares, should boil down to two main contenders. Miss Bliss deserves top billing; she remains above her claim level for good connections, is drawn comfortably outside and has been first or second in six of nine career starts over the Santa Anita main track. Gypsy’s Rule, first off the claim for Mike Mudaris, drops a notch, adds blinkers and has trained nicely for her first start since mid-December. She has several back numbers that will put her in the thick of things.

RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B

Single: 5-City Steel

Let’s take a stand in the fifth race, a $25,000 claiming main track mile affair. City Steel continues to look sharp in the morning for trainer Mark Glatt, is a strong fit on speed figures, knows how to win races, and is likely to draft into an ideal pace-prompting position in a field without a whole lot of speed. However, at 2-1 on the morning line he doesn’t offer a whole lot of wagering value other than as a rolling exotic single.

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Outthink’em; 7-Aikau

Outthink’em comes off a runaway score at Los Alamitos over a wet surface but seems just as effective if not more so on a fast ground. He’s won three of his last four starts and looks tough once again. Aikau ran a bit better then line will show when caught very wide vs. $8,000 sellers here earlier this month. He’s at least a trier; the Surf Cat gelding has been first or second in half of his 10 career starts and should be in the fray once again.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 5-St. Reno; 7-River Hoss

St. Reno is lightly raced with room to improve, and his numbers are moving in the right direction, so this five-year-old son of Awesome Again seems as good as any in this starter’s allowance main track extended sprint. The John Sadler-trained horse has issues but remains protected in a sign of confidence. River Hoss is winless in seven starts over the Santa Anita main track but he was a close third in a similar spot after being struck over the nose by another rider’s whip in the stretch and still kept on willingly. He should be running on late.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade:  C+

Use: 3-Budokan; 9-Long Game; 10-Dynamic Ruler

The nightcap is a maiden-claiming middle distance affair for sophomores; let’s try to get by using three. Long Game is a one-paced plodder but his numbers are improving and with another forward move might able to tag the speed. Budokan, a close third in a similar spot last month, really won’t have to improve much to win, while Dynamic Ruler earned a fairly decent number when second at Del Mar in early December and a repeat of that race today might be good enough to beat this field.

 

GULFSTREAM PARK

Friday, January 27, 2017

​RACE 1: Post 12:35 ET. Grade: B

Use: 2-E Z’s Mistress; 4-Loving Valentina

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​​RACE 2: Post 1:04 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Eklipsado; 7-Thunder Afleet

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RACE 3: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Khamsa Tfu; 3-Equine Perfection

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​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:02 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Mo Cash; 4-Eloy Rod; 5-Distorted Union

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​RACE 5: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1-Big Money Machine; 2-Golden Point; 6-Mr. Magic

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:02 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 7-El Gran Noel; 8-Japonski; 10-Too Stormy

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​​RACE 7: Post 3:32 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 4-Sierra Love; 10-Ballyhoo Moon; 12-Parkelizabeth

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​​​RACE 8: Post 4:02 ET.  Grade:  B-

Use: 7-Money Market; 8-Souper True

RACE 9: Post 4:32 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 4-Royal Flame; 12-Dream Shot

RACE 10: Post: 5:02 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 3-Scarly Charly; 6-Greenpointcrusader

 

RACE 11: Post: 5:32 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 6-General Sham’mah; 7-Little Awesome

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for Jan. 27, 2017

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