Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Kee) for April 20, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Saturday, April 20, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Southern Keys; 7-Sequentially; 9-Taima the Hawk

 The Thursday opener is a downhill turf starter’s allowance sprint with plenty to chew on. Taima the Hawk is hardly a single but deserves the edge on top after three straight runner-up efforts. His numbers are solid, and after a brief freshening the son of Kitten’s Joy should fire his best shot. Southern Keys just won over this course and distance vs. high priced maiden claimers, has trained well since, and likely has another forward move in him. The Keyed Entry gelding should be on or near the lead throughout. Sequentially tries turf for the first time and has a right to improve, so at 12-1 on the morning line will toss him in as well.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 1:31 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 2-Make It a Triple; 5-Bucky Goldstein

Bucky Goldstein and Make It a Triple were second and fourth, respectively, in the fast, highly-rated race won by Hitters Park and each will be making his second lifetime start in this maiden $50,000 extended sprint. ‘Goldstein was two clear of the others in a sharp performance for a low profile outfit and probably won’t have to improve to graduate, while ‘Triple didn’t get the best of runs and finished willingly without threatening for the capable of Mike Machowsky barn. We’ll prefer Bucky Goldstein on top but use both in our rolling exotics.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 2:03 PT. Grade: X

Single: 4-Rizzi’s Honors

Rizzi’s Honors is 4/5 on the morning line in what is her first outing since July and she returns protected in a modest starter’s allowance sprint that should be well within her capabilities, assuming she’s retained her previous speed. The works look good enough, so let’s make her a no-value rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:36 PT. Grade: X

Single: 1-Jill Madden

Jill Madden has burned money in her last three starts and clearly isn’t one to trust, yet she’s 3/5 on the morning line while dropping to her lowest level ever, adding blinkers, and clearly appears to be the controlling speed from her favorable rail post. She’s a standout on speed figures as well, so if she doesn’t win today, she may never. You can use her as a short priced rolling exotic single and simply sit it out.

 

RACE 5: Post 3:08 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 7-Heat; 10-A New Trend

The fifth race is a fairly competitive first-level allowance sprint for California-bred older runners. A New Trend is bred to excel on turf (Vronsky) and flashed huge early speed before paying the price in his only prior try down the hillside course in February, weakening in the final furlong to finish third. The Hector Palma-trained gelding looks like the controlling speed again, but this time if he can slow it down just a bit during the early stages he might roll all the way to the wire. At 10-1 on the morning line he offers plenty of value both in the straight pool and in the rolling exotics. Heat finally broke his maiden in his 18th career start and did it in style; today we’ll find out if he can turn in two alike. He’s clearly the one to beat based strictly on speed figures. Let’s put A New Trend on top but include both in rolling exotic play.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:38 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Sheza Firstsamurai; 7-Cheyenne Dancer

A modest band of $40,000 maiden claiming sophomore fillies occupies the sixth race. Sheza Firstsamurai is clearly the one to beat; the Steve Miyadi-trained 3-year-old earned a career top speed figure when second vs. similar in late March and should appreciate today’s slightly shorter trip. This will be her easiest chance yet and she should be able to take advantage of the situation. We’ll also use on a ticket or two the first-timer Cheyenne Dancer, a Machowsky-trained daughter of The Pamplemousse who has been showing some zip in a.m. trials.

 

RACE 7: Post 4:08 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Truly Ponti; 3-Watch Me Now

Watch Me Now returns cheap for trainer Doug O’Neill in her first start since August and clearly has issues, but the works indicate fitness and we’re expecting her to fire a big shot fresh. However, there’s really not much we can do with her at 7/5 on the morning line other than to include her in our rolling exotics. Truly Ponti has the benefit of recent racing but is much slower on speed figures than her main rival. ‘Ponti can win if Watch Me Now doesn’t fire, so we’ll have her on a ticket or two as a back-up.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:38 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 9-Kopitar; 10-Arms Runner

The finale is a downhill turf maiden sprint that finds Kopitar the 6/5 morning line favorite. With two good runs over this course and distance under his belt, the son of Shackleford really shouldn’t miss this opportunity, unless one of the newcomers comes out firing. Arms Runner sports a few flashy drills at San Luis Rey Downs for clever trainer Peter Miller (22% with a flat-bet profit with debut runners) and brought $525,000 last year in the Ocala April 2-year-old in training sale, where he worked a quarter mile in a blazing 21 flat. The almost-white son of Overdriven gives every indication of being a smoker. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics.

 

 

KEENELAND

Thursday, April 20, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 1:05 ET. Grade: C

Use: 3-Jemrose; 5-Soil; 6-Stormfield

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​​RACE 2: Post 1:39 ET. Grade: B

Use: 6-Classy Music; 8-Ultima D

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RACE 3: Post 2:12 ET. Grade: X

Single: 1-Puca

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:45 ET. Grade: B

Use: 5-She Stays Rollin; 9-True Dream

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​RACE 5: Post 3:18 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 3-Caribou Club; 11-Kiss the Toad; 12-Bound for Nowhere

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:51 ET. Grade: B

Use: 7-One River Place; 9-Coal Front

​​RACE 7: Post 4:24 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Scatter Gun; 2-Conquest Babayaga; 7-Insta Erma

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​​​RACE 8: Post 4:57 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 5-Ray’swarrior; 6-Go Vo

RACE 9: Post 5:30 ET.  Grade: B+

Single: 9-Kahrumana

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Kee) for April 20, 2017

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