XBTV’s Leverage Plays: Late Pick 4 for Pegasus World Cup Day on January 28th, 2017 at Gulfstream Park

Below is the late Pick 4 ticket for Pegasus World Cup Day on January 28th, 2017 at Gulfstream Park. As always, the ticket is $20 or less.

Race 9:

Power Alert (#11, 4-1) is one of the most honest horses in training. When he gets a firm course and a decent trip, he always runs his race. He is four for four over Gulfstream Park’s surface and has been in the exacta in 12 of 18 career races at the distance. Coming off an easy win in Tampa last time out, the seven-year-old appears to be better than ever.

Rainbow Heir  (#1, 6-1) Speaking of being better than ever, Rainbow Heir won his last start with authority after jockey Trevor McCarthy employed a new off-the-pace style with this horse. His two turf sprints under Jason Servis’ care have been excellent and he could be the ‘now’ horse if he is able to work out a trip from the tricky rail.

Manhattan Dan  (#2, 9-2) could be any type as he prepares to make his first start off a layoff for Todd Pletcher, who is 35% with this move. His three starts at the distance have resulted in romping wins and moving from an 8% barn to Pletcher’s care should do nothing but help his progression. He must answer two questions in this spot however. Can he beat older foes for the first time and can he keep going if he is headed early in a race with plenty of other speed?

Mongolian Saturday  (#10, 7-2) has been very inconsistent of late, but the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint winner is the clear class of the field. After a disastrous trip to Hong Kong and Great Britain, he snapped back with a sharp score in the Woodford Stakes at Keeneland before faltering in the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. Maybe he did not care for the hill configuration at Santa Anita Park? If this gelding is able to bring his best, then the rest of the field will be in a race for second.

Race 10 : 

I am taking a stand against horses coming out of the Via Borghse Stakes, which was the local prep for this race. The race resulted in a blanket finish with many entrants at big odds across the track, leading me to believe the race was not very strong. With that in mind, I will focus on two contenders that do not come out of that race.

Suffused (#12, 3-1) has been running very well against much tougher, including a narrow loss in the Grade 1 EP Taylor last time out. This mare is in razor sharp form and appears to get along very well with Jose Ortiz. A repeat of any of her last four efforts should be good enough to get the job done, even from the 12 post.

Arles (#7, 7-2) only lost to Suffused by 3/4 of a length when dropping the whip in her U.S. debut. She followed that up with a strong second to the talented Nuovo Record in the Red Carpet Handicap. This mare has shown a knack for hanging, but she appears to be the only one with enough class to knock off Suffused.

Race 11: 

Similar to Race 10, I am taking a stand against the local prep for this race, the Allen Jerkens Stakes at Gulfstream Park on December 31st. The race completely fell apart race, which greatly benefited the four runners who return in this spot.

Mr Maybe (#10, 6-1) loves a firm turf course and he should get just that on Saturday. He ran into the tough Heart to Heart when being left with too much to do at a mile and an eight in his last start. He stretches out to a mile and a half for the lethal combination of Chad Brown and Javier Castellano and offers quite a bit of value at 6-1 in this spot.

Danish Dynaformer (#4, 5-1) also performs better over a firm turf course and has a touch of class. He has been victimized by crawling paces in a couple of his starts this year, but this Grade 3 winner was less than 2 lengths back in the Arlington Million and picks up the services of Joel Rosario who gets off the likely favorite, Twilight Eclipse, to ride.

 Race 12:

California Chrome (#12, 6-5) may have the slightest of advantages over Arrogate (#1, 7-5) in their rematch because of the cutback in distance to a mile and a eighth for the Pegasus World Cup. Arrogate is the most talented horse in the world, but he gets stronger and stronger as the race progresses, while Chrome has a lightning quick burst. Califonia Chrome needs to have at least a two length lead turning for home to hold on. If Smith rides Arrogate similar to how he did in the Travers from the rail, then he should be able to keep Chrome in his sights and grind away a win. These two horses are by far the two best dirt horses in the world and are two of the very best this decade. The winner will likely be the horse that gets the better trip and due to their tricky post positions, both stars should be played. Adding extra horses in this race in the hopes of a big payoff would simply be a waste of money. Play them both and enjoy the last leg of the Pick 4 as a fan.

$0.50 Pick 4 Ticket:  1,2,10,11 – 7,12 – 4,10 – 1,12 = $16

-Padraic Manocchio

@xbtvpadraic

XBTV’s Leverage Plays: Late Pick 4 for Pegasus World Cup Day on January 28th, 2017 at Gulfstream Park