March 9, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Lasmuigh; 3-Seismic Spirit
Backups/savers: 8-The Slap
Forecast: Maiden $62,500 3year-olds sprint six furlongs in the Thursday opener, with Lasmuigh appearing best on paper after finishing a no-excuse runner-up in a similar spot over this course and distance last month. The number was okay for the level but it’s hard to trust the favorite after he squandered a perfect trip, as he did last time out. A seven race maiden, the English-bred gelding retains top rider Joe Hernandez, and in a very weak race for the level he’ll get top billing by default. Seismic Spirit, third in both of his starts since being returned from England, where he was considered good enough to compete at Royal Ascot as a juvenile, just failed at even money at this level without having a straw in his path. He’s a contender based on numbers but doesn’t strike us as one to bank on. We’re not sure how much ability The Slap has but this will be his first try vs. sellers and his first sprinting, so improvement is likely. He’s a first-time Lasix user, a first time gelding, and will be re-equipped with blinkers while also showing the popular route-to-sprint angle, so the son of Oscar Performance most certainly is a “must use.”
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RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Batukhan; 6-Frost Alert; 5-Storming Chrome
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Bottom-rung maiden claiming ($20,000) older horses meet over a mile in the second race in which nothing is remotely trustworthy. Batukhan finished second in his last two starts at this level, so this 11-race maiden certainly is due. A one-paced grinder, the Irish-bred gelding likely will lag early and then produce his best bid late, and in a race with plenty of cheap speed the race shape could set up nicely for him. Frost Alert was used on the pace before weakening late to wind up fourth (beaten two lengths) in the same race our top pick exits. Perhaps with patient tactics today, the son of Frosted will respond better. Storming Chrome plummets in class, stretches out for the first time, and switches to the main track while receiving a substantial weight break due to the presence of bug boy Aguilar in the saddle. We suspect gate-to-wire tactics will be employed. The winner likely will be one of the three listed above in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Dolly May; 5-Lasting Love
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Five of the seven entrants in this restricted (nw-2) $32,000 claiming turf miler for fillies and mares exit the same Feb. 12 race won by Ice Queen. Dolly May finished willingly against slow fractions to be second in that affair and not much more will be needed to register her first victory since winning a maiden race in her debut in Ireland in the summer of 2021 (12 races ago). Obviously not one to trust but certainly good enough to win with her best effort, the John Sadler-trained filly retains leading pilot Juan Hernandez and is listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite. She could win but doesn’t have to. Lasting Love returns to a claimer, stretches out for the first time, and switches to grass. Frankie stays aboard – a positive sign – and under these conditions the daughter of Cupid has a right to produce a significant forward move, especially if she finds herself as the controlling speed in a field without much in it.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: C
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-American Cat; 5-Dutch Bus
Backups/Savers: none
Forecast: After failing at 6/5 when fourth in a starter $50,000 allowance sprint here last month, American Cat drops drastically to the $16,000 non-winners of two level and will beat this field with anything close to his best. That’s the rub; is he simply being culled from the stable (most likely) or are there physical issues that have crept up? In either case, he’s not one to trust at 8/5 on the morning line. Dutch Bus is winless in nine starts over the Santa Anita main track but like our top pick is dropping and dangerous in a modest race for the level. We suspect the winner will be one of these two, and both should be included in rolling exotic play. However, best advice is to tread lightly.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Happy Gal; 6-Midnight Vow
Backups/savers: 5-Cornelia Fort
Forecast: Happy Gal exits a series of infinitely tougher allowance races and this drop to the starter allowance $50,000 claiming level might be exactly what she needs to return to the winner’s circle. The daughter of Runhappy has several back figures that are better than par for this level and with plenty of speed signed on to compliment her late running style at this extended sprint distance she should be capable of producing a winning late kick. Midnight Fort toyed with a soft group of maiden $40,000 rivals last time out, and with rising speed figures and a bullet recent workout (4f, :47 1/5, fastest of 65) since raced the daughter of Broken Vow clearly is headed in the right direction. With Unusual Heat on the bottom side of her pedigree, she should have no issue with turf. Cornelia Fort was a clever maiden $50,000 winner on dirt last time out and goes for the John Sadler barn following a claim. She’ll need to improve her numbers, but this will be only her third career start, and her pedigree suggests she’ll enjoy the switch to grass. The fact that she’s being protected while retaining top rider Juan Hernandez are a couple of other positive factors.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Big Shamrock; 6-Sheza Girly Girl; 4-La Deuxieme Etoile
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Big Shamrock just won in a similar starter allowance $20,000 claiming sprint and did so with a career top speed figure. Normally, when a recent claim (in this case, by Eddie Truman) wins but returns at the same level (or lower), it’s not a healthy sign, but when you’re dealing with a stable on a long losing streak (0-for-35 last year) and the money being offered is $72,000, you can accept the maneuver as nothing more than an attempt to win a purse. Sheza Girly Girl has somewhat the same pattern – claimed for $20,000 and returning for the same price – but in her case it makes more sense since she finished a lackluster fifth (beaten almost seven lengths) in her last outing. She has a prior win over the track, switches to Flavian Prat, and figures to be a late threat. La Deuxieme Etoile might be more comfortable on turf but has enough early speed to always be withing range and have every chance when the pressure is turned on. On pure numbers, she’s right there with these.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Foothill; 6-Aligato
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Foothill continues to improve and is clearly better than he’s ever been now at age six. A state-bred allowance winner over a mile on turf last time out, the Doug O’Neill-trained son of Vronsky is unproven at this mile and one-quarter distance but he did score at nine furlongs over the local lawn two years ago. For some reason, Frankie jumps off to ride 20-1 Seven Wonders, but Johnny V. picks up the mount, and that’s okay by us. At 6-1 on the morning line, he’s the main play. Aligato is a one-paced grinder with no turn of foot, but those traits might not be a hindrance at this distance. In the frame in five of six career starts at Santa Anita on turf, the son of Kitten’s Joy is reunited with “win rider” Flavian Prat, and based on our pace projection, the closer to the front he can be without being used, the better chance he’ll have. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Foothill.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Storm d’Oro; 4-Sweet Hello
Backups/Savers: 6-Sheza Lucky Charm
Forecast: Sweet Hello and Storm d’Oro, two-three finishers in a similar maiden claiming $50,000 state-bred affair, figure to receive the bulk of the play in this extended sprint for sophomore fillies. They finished a neck apart in that late January event, though ‘Hello may be a bit more difficult to trust, having been a beaten favorite in that race and finishing second in her last three outings. She adds blinkers today but has worn them before, and always has been the kind who can’t seem to punch it in when the pressure is turned on. Conversely, Storm d’Oro was making her debut in that race, and after remaining a strong factor until mid-stretch, understandably weakened late, still a very solid effort under the circumstances. Since she logically has more room to improve, we’ll give the Hector Palma-trained filly the edge on top. Also worth tossing in – at least as a backup – is the first timer Sheza Lucky Charm. The Leonard Powell-trained daughter of Eddington attracts Flavian Pratt, and while her workouts are fair at best she really won’t have to be a world beater to act with these.
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