March 10, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: C+ bn
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 8-Purified; 3-Famous Star
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Purified just missed by a neck in a maiden special weight main track miler in late December but after 10 weeks on the sidelines he returns in a maiden $50,000 claimer for trainer Bob Baffert. That’s not a very healthy pattern for a lightly raced ridgeling that has finished in the money in all four career starts and originally brought $385,000 in a 2-year-old in training sale. Clearly, the now 4-year-old son of Lord Nelson is being culled by the stable, which doesn’t mean he can’t (or won’t) win this race, only that his connections do not view him as a long term prospect. First-off-the-claim Famous Star is re-equipped with blinkers and has numbers that are good enough to win at this level, but to be frank he’s never shown a whole lot of fight when put to pressure in the final furlong. The son of Frosted projects to be part of the early pace, and if he can sneak away early he might get brave late.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Talklessworkmore; 3-Lil Richards Bello
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: We’ll double the second race, an allowance optional claimer for state-bred older horses over a mile on the main track. Talklessworkmore shows the blinkers off angle that we like and good, consistent form at this level. The Shelby Ruis-trained gelding has finished in the money in each of his last six starts, most recently when second with a career top speed figure over this track and distance last month. Flavian Prat stays aboard and should have the son of Summer Front in a good stalking position throughout. Lil Richards Bello isn’t as fast on speed figures as our top pick but has been freshened since November and has trained well enough to be fit and ready for his return. He’s run well over this main track in the past and has enough early speed to clear the field if that’s the strategy his connections wish to employ.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Bella Renella
Backups/Savers: none
Forecast: Bell Renella, quite obviously is a standout in this $10,000 claiming sprint for older fillies and mares. All she needs to be is reasonably fit and close to the form she displayed last year when she was stopped on after a three race winning streak that concluded in the spring after she was twice a voided claim due to vet issues. The main question – in fact, the only question – is what kind of shape she is in following a nearly one year layoff. The work tab is impressive, and since she’s waiver protected and therefore can’t be claimed, her connections get a free ride. There’s no wagering value to be found at the very short price she is sure to be, but we can use her as a free bingo space in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Big Mama Sue; 6-Eleuthera; 3-Tecumseh Caroline
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Here’s a very competitive nine furlong turf event for entry-level allowance fillies and mares that offers several possibilities. There should be enough speed to compliment the late running style of Big Mama Sue, so we’ll put the veteran mare on top and hope that the race shape plays in her favor. A two time winner over the Santa Anita turf course, the daughter of Mr. Big has been freshened since November and shows just four works in the interim, but she has a history of firing fresh and probably doesn’t need to be honed on in the morning to be on her game. The Paul Aguirre-trained mare retains “win” rider Juan Hernandez and should be capable of wearing down the leaders in the closing stages. Eleuthera adds blinkers – she’s worn them once before unsuccessfully – and is solid on numbers but has failed twice in her last three outings as the favorite. At this stage, we’re not sure if she wants to be a speed horse or a closer and it looks like her connections haven’t quite figured it out, either. Nonetheless, off her best effort, she has a reasonable look. Tecumseh Caroline is unproven on grass and at this distance, but she appears to be made of the proper stuff, having won her last pair in good style, one sprinting, one routing, and both on dirt. She’s very likely to be part of the pace, though she can settle in mid-pack and win from there if the race flow dictates.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: C
Main ticket (in order of preference): Trojan Way; 1-Bonita Leona
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: There are six runners in this restricted (nw-3) $20,000 claiming main track miler for older fillies and mares, two of which should be capable of leaving the others behind. Trojan Way, claimed in her last pair, most recently out of a winning race for (nw-2) $12,500, moves up in class but has numbers that make her the one to beat in this modest affair. The concern is that she’s most effective on the front end, but from where she’s drawn (six of six) the daughter of Kantharos may have to be sent from the bell to get over and earn her coveted trip. That may be a bit more difficult than what is ideal thanks to the presence of Bonita Leona, who exits a series of sprints, and seems likely to be sent from start to take advantage of her inside draw. It’s possible these two hook up early and do each other in, but whom among the other four have shown the ability to produce any kind of rally? In a race that we’ll otherwise leave alone, we’ll go two-deep in rolling exotic play with a slight preference on top to Trojan Way.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Window Shopping; 5-Make It Snow
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: This is a stronger than par maiden turf miler for sophomores and it should take quite a decent filly to win it. Window Shopping was flat out given a race in her debut last fall at Del Mar, eventually winding up sixth (beaten just over fourth lengths) after encountering some traffic through the lane while never being asked for anything close to her best (she galloped out far in front into the clubhouse turn but they don’t pay off for that). The daughter of American Pharaoh certainly has much more natural talent that the line will show, and her recent impressive dirt workouts leave no doubt that she is plenty fit and ready for a stable that has good stats with the layoff angle. Additionally, she gets Lasix and Flavian Prat. While we prefer to see two sprints prior to a stretch out, Make It Snow ran so well in her debut at six furlongs that we expect her to provide our top pick with some legitimate competition. The daughter of Empire Maker rallied wide and closed with courage in a hot race while just getting her feet wet, and though the barn has weak stats with the second-time starter angle this filly might prove to be an exception to the rule. As a daughter of Empire Maker, she certainly is bred to improve with distance. These are the two we’ll be including on our rolling exotic ticket with preference in the win pool to Window Shopping.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Street Ruckus
Backups/Savers: none
Forecast: Street Ruckus may not be the type of horse to take a real short price on – he’s been a beaten favorite in his last two starts – but it’s hard to envision him getting beat in this below average allowance main track miler for older horses. He always seems to try hard, having finished in the money in each of his last six starts, but it’s been almost a year since he’s won, and that victory was accomplished on grass. In a race that lacks pace, the son of Street Boss might inherit the role as the controlling speed and given that type of trip he should be able to dominate as a no-value rolling exotic single.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Soul of Midnight; 12-Big Drinker
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: The finale is state-bred maiden $50,000 claiming sprint for 3-year-olds in which the second time starter Soul of Midnight should be a logical top pick. The son of Straight Fire tipped his hand when a good second in his debut at this level earlier this meeting, and with a healthy, steady series of works in the interim the Dean Pederson-trained gelding seems very likely to step forward for a barn whose maidens always seem to improve with an outing under their belt. Big Drinker, first off the claim for Peter Miller, turned in a clunker at this level as the favorite but didn’t get the best of runs and seems certain to snap back to his best race for his new connections. His recent work tab at San Luis Rey Downs looks fine, and with the break in the weights afforded by good bug boy Aguilar this son of Stay Thirsty seems like the one to fear most. Preference on top goes to Soul of Midnight but we’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics.
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