Post positions in the Filly and Mare Sprint may prove to be more important than any other Breeders’ Cup race. Favored Covfefe drawing the rail could change the whole complexion of this race. Below is my analysis and betting strategies for the Grade 1 affair.
1. Spiced Perfection (#9, 4-1): Overcame a disastrous trip to win the TCA at Keeneland, which has been an important prep over the years. She is drawn perfectly, has thrived at 7 furlongs and is a Grade 1 winner at Santa Anita Park.
2. Come Dancing (#4, 5-2): She seems to always be capitalizing on short, weak fields, but she has looked awfully good doing it and she consistency shows up with big efforts around one turns. She should sit a great trip and will be right there on the line.
3. Lady Ninja (#5, 10-1): This mare has shown rapid improvement this year after being claimed for $32,000 by Richard Baltas. She loves Santa Anita and should sit a great trip. She should be used in all exotics.
4. Covfefe (#1, 2-1): She may be the most talented runner in the field, but I think she lost this race at the draw. She is at her best when she is able to rate just off the lead, but she will have to duel throughout after drawing the rail. She faced a similar challenge in her only other start against older and finished 3rd.
5. Bellafina (#6, 6-1): Is undefeated at Santa Anita, but it seems like she was in better form the last time she ran here. The rest of the three-year-old division caught up with her and now she faces older.
6. Dawn the Destroyer (#8, 12-1): She will get a good pace to run at, but has repeatedly been defeated by many of these runners. She seems just a cut below the best of the division.
7. Heavenhasmynikki (#3, 20-1): She will likely be part of a hot pace and has yet to defeat horses anywhere near this caliber.
8. Selcourt (#7, 10-1): 7 Furlongs seems to be a bit far for her, especially when she will be dueling with Covfefe. She is also likely to regress after running a hard race off a layoff in the LA Woman.
9. Danuska’s My Girl (#2, 20-1): She needs the lead to win and with Covfefe inside of her and Selcourt drawn outside of her, she looks destined to be fried in the middle of a speed duel.
$20 Betting Strategies
$2 Exacta Box (4,9)
$1 Exacta Box (5,9)
$1 Exacta Box (1,9)
$1 Trifecta 9 – 4,5 – 1, 4, 5, 6, 8
$0.50 Trifecta 4-5 – 9 – 1,4,5,6,8