Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint Analysis and Betting Strategies for November 1st, 2019

Wesley Ward looks to hold all the cards in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, but a slew of Europeans add intrigue to this international field. Below is my analysis and betting strategies for the 5 furlong dash.

  1. Four Wheel Drive (#9, 3-1): He towers over this field on both Beyer Speed Figures and Sheet numbers and has the tactical speed and good draw to sit a perfect trip in here.
  2. Kimari: (#7, 7/2): She has already beaten males and is proven both on the lead and from way off the pace. She seems to have gotten even better since removing blinkers two starts back and should complete a Wesley Ward exacta.
  3. A' Ali (#10, 6-1): He loves the 5 furlongs layout and appears to be at his best over firm turf, which he should get on Friday. Europeans have not fared well in American Turf Sprints, but this colt has a legitimate chance to buck the trend.
  4. Aligator Alley: (#6, 12-1) This colt was bet down to even money in the race that A' Ali won, but failed to show up. If you throw that race out however; this colt has stellar form and has overcome trouble multiple times to put forth top efforts.
  5. Chimney Rock: (#1, 10-1) He has run consecutive solid seconds to a pair of Wesley Ward runners and should be right in the mix once again. His closing style may leave him with too much to do on the win end.
  6. Cambria (#12, 12-1): This filly in undefeated in three starts and seems to be steadily improving. She does not appear as fast as her stablemates, but should be considered underneath.
  7. Encoder (#10, 12-1): He returns to a sprint after tiring at a mile. He is a tough read as he is either a true turf sprinter or an average horse that took advantage of a weak field first time out. Time will tell, but Prat signing on helps the cause.
  8. Band Practice (#2, 12-1): She defeated males when wiring the field in France, but will have a tougher time making the lead in this quicker paced U.S. sprint. I am not confident that she can rate and win in this spot.
  9. Dream Shot (#4, 15-1): He finished just a length behind A' Ali last time, but unlike that runner, he has not shown enough consistency to inspire confidence.
  10. Another Miracle (#3, 15-1): The son of American Pharoah looked good in his turf debut, but failed to sustain that momentum with a poor effort against Four Wheel Drive. He does not seem to fit at this class level.
  11. Dr. Simpson (#8, 15-1): He won at his only try around a left-handed course, which is a positive, but that was against much weaker and his subsequent tries against better have left a lot to be desired.
  12. King Neptune (#11, 15-1): This colt is another European that has done his best work on the lead. He is unlikely to make the lead here and has not shown a killer instinct with 1 win in 9 starts.

$20 Betting Strategy

$2 Exacta Box (7,9)

$2 Exacta Box (9,10)

$2 Exacta Box (6,9)

$2 Exacta Straight (9-1)

$ 0.50 Trifecta  9 - 1, 6, 7, 10 - 1, 6, 7, 10

-Padraic Manocchio

@xbtvpadraic

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint Analysis and Betting Strategies for November 1st, 2019

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