The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf is my favorite betting race on the Friday Breeders’ Cup program as there is a great opportunity to make some good money. Below is my analysis of the Grade 1 race.
- Hit the Road (#14, 10-1) He drew a tough post, but his closing style should allow him to drop back and make a big late run. He has been the most visually impressive runner in the field and has improved leaps and bounds every race. He already owns a win over the surface and distance and if he continues his upward trend, then he will find himself in the Winner’s Circle at a nice price.
- Arizona (#12, 5-2) This colt has undoubtably faced the toughest competition thus far and has the ability and tactical speed to give Aidan O’Brien another victory in this race. He is the deserving favorite and as long as he can handle the stretch out to a mile, he will be a tough customer to catch.
- Decorated Invader: (#4, 4-1) I don’t think he has beaten much thus far, as a 99-1 shot finished 2nd and a maiden finished 4th in the Summer Stakes, but he has looked awfully good doing it. He looks like an honest colt who will bring his best effort with him. Irad Oritz Jr. chose this runner over Chad Brown’s Structor.
- Fort Myers: (#13, 12-1) He has yet to win on the turf, but owns two wins on a left-handed course and is bred to love the stretch out to a mile. Aidan O’Brien’s ‘other’ runner is not without a shot in here.
- Structor: (#2, 5-1) This expensive colt has not disappointed in two starts and Chad Brown is tough to ignore in big turf races. He would not need to improve much to win this race. It is interesting to note that Irad Ortiz Jr. gets off of him to ride Decorated Invader.
- Our Country: (#1, 15-1) He seems like the type of colt that will always find trouble, but if he ever got a clean trip, he could make some noise at a big price.
- Vitalogy (#5, 10-1) This colt has a powerful late kick but often leaves himself with too much to do late. He could come flying again for a piece, but I do not think he can get up in time to win at a mile.
- Andesite: (#7, 12-1) He loses Castellano to Vitalogy, but is yet another runner that has a chance to pick up pieces if he continues his improving pattern.
- Peace Achieved (#3, 10-1) The Mark Casse runner is perfect in 3 starts since stretching out to routes and adding blinkers, but he has done so against lesser competition. Vitalogy looks like the best horse to come out of the Bourbon Stakes.
- Graceful Kitten: (#6, 15-1) He is very similar to Peace Achieved, as he has parlayed perfect trips against lesser company to three straight wins. The water and pace pressure gets much deeper here.
- Billy Batts: (#8, 20-1) He has a tendency to make winning bids without sustaining them. Hard to see him figuring it all out against tougher.
- War Beast: (#12, 20-1) This colt was blow away by Hit the Road last time and with more pace pressure to bother him in this spot, I expect that margin to be even wider on Friday.
- Proven Strategies: (#11, 30-1) He is stakes tested, but is still a maiden and would be a shocker in this spot.
- Gear Jockey (#9, 20-1) This is another maiden who squandered a perfect trip against easier last time out.
$20 Betting Strategy
$4 Win on #14
$1 Exacta Box (4, 12, 14)
$1 Exacta 4, 12 with 2, 13
$.50 Trifecta 12, 14 with 4, 12 and 14 with 2, 4, 12, 13, 14