Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TPC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 individual
algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100 point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B+
Single: 2-Annaghlasa
Forecast: Annaghlasa�was given a run in her debut during the fall meeting, settling in the second flight and then not being knocked about through the lane when winding up a distance fourth in a hot race. Interestingly, she was allowed to gallop out with some vigor and actually was in front of the field midway around the clubhouse turn. The Irish-bred filly makes a major jockey switch to F. Prat, has worked quite well in recent weeks, and appears ready to show her best stuff in this mile grass event for older maiden fillies and mares. At 3-1 on the morning line, she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
Notable Workouts:
Annaghlasa (December 19, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01h TT). Grade: B
Broke off a length in front of Burgoo Alley (5f, 1:00.4h TT) and was slightly second best at the wire without being asked much (workmate breezing), splits of :25.3, :37.1 and 1:01 flat, very good move by a maiden working with a stakes-quality filly. Was given a run sprinting during the fall season and should be much more serious this time around when sent over a distance of ground.
View Workout Video
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RACE 2: Post: 1:03 PT Grade:
Use (in order of preference): 1-Defense Wins; 4-Charge Cash
Forecast: This $25,000 claiming sprint for older horses drew just a field of five, so there’s not really much to work with. Charge Cash (TOC=5/2; ML=5/2) just won a restricted (nw-3) sprint for $20,000, was claimed by G. Stute, and is moved up a notch is quest of a repeat score that appears to be within his capabilities. Relatively lightly-raced (just 10 starts), the son of Will Take Charge may have a bit more room to improve than the others, so we’ll put him on top in a race that projects to have soft early fractions. Defense Wins (TOC=9/5; M:=5/2), in the frame in five of his last six starts with two wins, is strictly the one to beat. The D. Pederson-trained gelding likes to settle in the second flight and produce a run, and in a small field he should have every chance to do just that. We believe the winner will be one or the other, so both should be included in rolling exotic play, with preference on top to Charge Cash.
Notable Workouts:
Defense Wins (December 22, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4h). Grade: B-
Always willing in the a.m., maintenance move while coming the final quarter mile in :25.3 without much pressure. Looked fine, was hitting on all fours, seeking another mid-level claiming sprint.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:34 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 1-Mo Gold; 6-Shut Up Michael; 7-Tuskegee Cat
Forecast: The known element doesn’t impress, so let’s try a fresh face in this maiden special weight turf sprint for sophomores. Mo Gold doesn’t have any fancy clockings on his tab but this son of Uncle Mo appears to have plenty of run. He’s not a big colt but is quick-actioned with plenty of acceleration, so if he breaks running from the rail, the J. Bonde-trained 3-year-old could have a huge say in the outcome. At or near his morning line of 6-1, he’s a gamble. Shut Up Michael was far back routing in his U.S. debut at Del Mar in November but is probably much better than the race shows. The Irish-bred gelding switches to F. Prat, shortens to a sprint, and might be a late threat. Tuskegee Cat showed a bit of ability in a couple of outings last year and this son of Air Force Blue could easily be a much better type this time around. He’s a first-time gelding for new trainer R. Alvarado and will race without blinkers, so there’s a reason to believe he can step forward and be a strong threat. The presence of Johnny V. in the saddle is another plus. All three should be included on your ticket; we’ll press with Mo Gold in the win pool as well.
Notable Workouts:
Mo Gold (December 16, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02h). Grade: B+
Moderate final time, but Uncle Mo colt quickened smartly from the three furlong pole to the wire without really being asked much, :11.3 and :35.1 on our watches while displaying a sharp, economic way of going. May be a bit on the small side but seems to have talent. This is the only workout we have on video; he’s recorded two other drills since.
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Icy Flavor (January 2, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1hg). Grade: B-
In team gate drill with Win the Day (same time) and Brotherly Love (4f, :49hg) and was second best while ridden hard entering the far turn through the completion of the drill at the furlong pole, splits of :24.3, :48 flat and 1:00.3 on our watches, losing a bit of his steam late. Has some speed but doesn’t look like anything particularly special at this stage, was $195,000 2yo-in-training purchase at OBS last March.
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Shut Up Michael (December 19, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02h TT). Grade: B-
Blinkers, shadow roll, slightly second best outside Jack Sixpack (same time) for P. D’Amato, final quarter in a solid :24.1 without really being asked much. Was far back in U.S. debut over a mile in November at Del Mar but certainly appears capable of better.
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Tuskegee Cat (December 13, Santa Anita, 4f, :50.3h TT). Grade: B-
Breezing work outside I know Cash Flow (same time, also well in hand) in easy training track breeze for Alvarado, final three furlongs in :12.4 and :36.4 after going off slowly. Sophomore gelding with a bit of size and scope probably is better than first two Midwest races show. Should improve on this circuit.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:05 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference: 2-T Bones Trick; 3-Lookin for Revenge; 5-Camino de Estrella
Forecast: T Bones Trick (TOC=6/5; ML=5-1) burned money when a no-excuse third in a restricted $10,000 claiming miler at Los Alamitos last month but has a chance to make amends in this modest main track claimer with anything close to his best race. In the money in 18 of 26 career starts, the J. Wong-trained son of Midnight Lute likes to settle in mid-pack and grind away, and in a race in which the fractions project to be normal if not faster, he could get up in time. Though he’s been totally dismissed by the analytics, Lookin for Revenge (TOC=12-1; ML=7/2 is the likely pacesetter, and if not pressured early could take this field a very long way. Far back in a much tougher event in late November at Del Mar, the son of I Want Revenge plummets in class, adds blinkers, retains J. J. Hernandez, and will take them as far as he can. Camino de Estrella (TOC=7/2; ML=3-1) is a two-time winner over the Santa Anita main track, and after finishing second in his comeback after a more than six month layoff, the son of Mineshaft may be capable of producing a significant forward move. In a race that we’re probably not going to get too involved in, these are the three we’ll be including in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 4-War At Sea; 5-Admiral Halsey
Forecast: Here’s a messy maiden turf sprint for sophomores that came up lighter than expected. War At Sea is a son of War Front and therefore bred to move up a ton on grass. Today, the R. Ellis-trained colt gets his first chance on the sod and it’s possible he’ll take full advantage of the opportunity. He’s faced much tougher straight maidens in his first three races of his career, so if he can run at all, this is the proper spot to show it. Admiral Halsey adds blinkers and is another that could improve a bunch. The P. D’Amato-trained 3-year-old was a tad disappointing in a similar event in his local debut at Del Mar in November but his first two races back east weren’t bad and if repeated would make him the one to beat. Both should be included in the various exotics; we’ll press in the win pool with War At Sea on top.
Notable Workouts:
Win the Day (January 2, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1hg). Grade: B-
Not a quick type but turned in okay gate drill inside Icy Flavor (same time) and Brotherly Love (4f, :49hg), mostly on his own early and under some coaxing late, splits of :24.3, :48.1 and 1:00.2, about a length clear of ‘Flavor when eased up at the furlong pole. Doesn’t really strike us as a win early type but can run a bit and may want a distance of ground before showing his best.
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Epoch (December 18, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.3hg). Grade: C+
Caught him a full six furlongs from the gate while much best over Sync (5f, 1:01.4hg) for K. Desormeaux, easy to the top, then was ridden to the wire, splits of :24.4, :36.3, :49 flat and 1:16.1 on our watches. Nothing to get excited about.
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Quadrium Joeblow (January 3, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01hg). Grade: C
In blinkers, was off slowly and was not impressive in gate work with Loma Vista (same time) for P. D’Amato while being ridden along throughout and going slower than given, splits of :25.2, :37 flat, :49.2 and 1:02.2 on our watches. Down the road type at this stage.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:05 PT Grade: B+
Single: 5-Renegade Princess
Forecast: In a rather shallow bottom-rung maiden claiming main track miler for older fillies and mares, Renegade Princess won’t have much to worry about if she can reproduce her most recent runner-up effort at this level at Los Alamitos. In that race, the P. Eurton-trained filly was four lengths clear of the rest, has returned to work well over the Santa Anita main track and is likely to go lower than her morning line of 5/2. We’ll make her a logical rolling exotic single in a race that has little else to consider.
Notable Workouts:
Renegade Princess (January 1, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.1h TT). Grade: B-
Not a bad training track work for a cheap type, even but best inside Last Renegade (TOC=Even; ML=5/2) (same time) without really being asked much, final quarter in :24.3. Lightly-raced with a bit of improvement in her, eligible to surface in a very soft spot.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:35 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 2-Hear My Prayer; 7-Zero Tolerance
Forecast: We’ve identified two main players in this year’s edition of the Las Cienegas S.-G3 for fillies and mares sprinting down the Hillside course. Hear My Prayer (TOC=4/5; ML=2-1) is questionable at the distance – she’s been primarily a five furlong specialist in her career – but with just 11 races (and five wins) on her resume the daughter of The Big Beast may have further room for improvement. She’s most likely the controlling speed, and if she can get away with softer than average early fractions the V. Cerin-trained mare may be able to stay the trip. If not, Zero Tolerance (TOC=3-1; ML=5/2) is the viable alternative. She was a clever winner from softer over this course and distance during the fall season, is solid in the speed figure department, and is a versatile type that can win on the lead or by rallying from the second flight. She’s reunited with F. Prat, under whom she’s won two races, so the daughter of Mizzen Mast is strictly the one to beat.
Notable Workouts:
Constantia (January 2, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.4h TT). Grade: C+
A tad late changing leads and was asked through the lane, final three furlongs in an ordinary :37.3 in solo training track drill for J. Sadler. Was expecting more.
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Beautiful Gift (January 2, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.4h TT). Grade: C
(see Ginja below)
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Ginja (January 2, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.2h TT). Grade: B-
Two lengths the best over Beautiful Gift (5f, 1:02.4h TT) for B. Baffert, mild coaxing only while coming the final three furlongs in an average-like :37.1. Workmate was under pressure but weakened; has been away since May and appears rusty.
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Gold for Kitten (January 2, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.2h). Grade: B-
Kitten’s Joy filly was ridden through the lane, final quarter mile in :24.2 after going off slowly. Okay drill but would like to see an outing on this circuit.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:05 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 6-Bristol Bayou; 3-Bye Bye Bertie; 4-Midnight Jamboree
Forecast: We’ll spread this starter’s allowance main track miler for fillies and mares in a race that, in our estimation, doesn’t offer any wagering value. Bristol Bayou (TOC=4/5; ML=8/5) was scratched yesterday in preference to this spot and the V. Cerin-trained mare seems well-placed for a major effort. A three-time winner (from five starts) over the Santa Anita main track, the daughter of Carpe Diem has captured four of her last five starts and can be equally effective on the front end or from off the pace. Regular pilot K. Desormeaux stays aboard, knows her well, and can assess the race-shape in the opening quarter of a mile and choose a strategy. Bye Bye Bertie (TOC=6-1; ML=9/5) was out of her element when overmatched and unplaced in the Bayakoa S.-G3 at Los Alamitos last month but a repeat of her sharp win over this track and distance two races back puts her right there. She’s reunited with “win rider” F. Prat and has the kind of tactical speed that should have her within range every step of the way. Midnight Jamboree (TOC-7/2; ML=5/2) has been away since April but returns protected in a sign of confidence and attracts Johnny V. She’s won off a layoff in the past and she has numbers that fit, so the daughter of Midnight Lute should be included on your ticket as well.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:35 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 1-Agreetodisagree; 3-Miss Tokyo
Forecast: The nightcap is another starter’s allowance event, this one over a mile on grass for fillies and mares. We’ll try to get by using just two. Agreetodisagree (TOC=6-1; ML=4-1) is listed at 4-1 on the morning line, and from the good rail post following a game score with a career top speed figure at Del Mar in mid-November the P. Eurton-trained filly should have every chance for a repeat score. A prior winner over the local lawn, the daughter of Runhappy should draft into an ideal pace prompting, ground-saving position and then have her chance from the quarter pole home. Miss Tokyo (TOC=3-1); ML=3-1), a two-time winner over the Santa Anita lawn, is slower on speed figures than our top pick but might inherit the role as the controlling speed and given that trip could get brave and prove hard to down. She’s certain to get plenty of play with the switch to F. Prat.
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