Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily “Workout Report, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Unbridled Mary; 5-Phenom
Forecast: Phenom performed well in her debut under similar conditions at Santa Anita last month, finishing a willing third in a five-furlong turf sprint for juvenile fillies while easily outrunning her 19-1 odds. The P. D’Amato barn has excellent stats with second time starters (21% with a powerful ROI), so with that race under her belt combined with the addition of blinkers the daughter of Midnight Storm can be expected to run at least as well and probably better today. She’s listed as the 5/2 morning line favorite and that looks about right. Unbridled Mary is a first timer bred for intense early speed (Maclean’s Music) and has done some excellent work in the a.m. trainer J. Sadler, whose stats with debut runners is solid (18% with a strong flat-bet profit). It would not be surprising if she’s the quickest of the quick, and at 4-1 on the morning line looks enticing. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with a slight preference on top to the longer priced ‘Mary.
Notable Workouts:
Unbridled Mary (November 7, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.4hg). Grade: B
A bit slow to get in motion leaving gate but then displayed good speed without need of pressure to prove much best over Abadon (4f, :49.2hg) for J. Sadler, splits of :24 flat, :35.2 and :47.4 on our watches, nice drill by juvenile daughter of Maclean’s Music. Had a solid series of workouts at Los Alamitos before joining the main string and looks to have enough ability to be a live first time out.
View Workout Video
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RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 4-Signofthecross; 5-Kershaw
Forecast: This $50,000 middle distance maiden track claimer attracted just five entrants, so we don’t really have much to work with. Signofthecross was awful in his last two starts but after a brief freshening and a return to a main track we know he likes the L. Powell-trained gelding should be capable of snapping back to good form. The son of Cross Traffic projects to settle into a good stalking position and then have his chance to wear down the leaders from the quarter pole home. Kershaw, away since May but with an excellent record over the Del Mar dirt oval, shows a healthy series of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs to have him plenty fit for trainer P. Miller, whose stats with layoff runners always are better than average. Off his best day, the veteran gelding is more than good enough to handle this assignment. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying Kershaw on top.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:33 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Fore Flag; Bally’s Charm
Forecast: Four of the seven starters in this one-mile state-bred turf event for juveniles exit the same race, with Fore Flag, the runner-up in that Oct. 15 event at Santa Anita, likely to be the favorite again despite having failed as the public choice in his last two starts. Drawn perfectly along the rail and assured a ground-saving trip, the M. McCarthy-trained colt isn’t one to trust but seems the logical favorite once again almost by default. His numbers are well below par but are gradually rising, so with another forward move he’ll have every chance to earn his diploma. Bally’s Charm, fourth beaten less than four lengths in his debut behind Fore Flag, arguably has more room to improve and therefore is the one to fear most. The J. Mullins-trained gelding hit the front at the furlong pole before weakening; he’ll be fitter and stronger today and may be a more attractive gamble at 5/2 on the morning line. We’ll try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play with Bally’s Charm, based on price, the preferred top pick.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:03 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Today’s Flavor; 2-Essential Wager
Forecast: This is a better than par maiden sprint for older horses, with the main contention drawn inside (not always the place to be sprinting on this track). Essential Wager was unlucky in his recent debut at Santa Anita, winding up an admirable second with a strong speed figure after stumbling at the start, rushing up inside to make the pace and then understandably weakening late. The B. Baffert barn hits with a powerful 26% with second time starters, so with two very sharp drills since raced the son of Honor Code looks ready to graduate. Today’s Flavor was extremely well-meant in his debut at Santa Anita in April when finishing second to the talented Laurel River, but then went to the sidelines. The D. O’Neill-trained colt returns with a series of exceptional workouts, including a bullet :58 3/5 five-furlong drill over the local main track Oct. 30. If he can avoid trouble from the rail, the son of Laoban should give our top pick plenty of competition. We’ll have a few extra tickets keying Essential Wager but include both in rolling exotic play.
Notable Workouts:
Today’s Flavor (October 24, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01h TT). Grade: B
Solo training track drill for D. O’Neill, well in hand throughout, final three furlongs in :11.4 and :36.2, plenty left and galloping out strongly past the wire. Coming back extremely well, always trained like a very good prospect.
View Workout Video
Essential Wager (November 1, Santa Anita, 4f, :46.3h). Grade: A
In blinkers, terrific drill for Honor Code colt in company and much best over Velvet Slippers (4f, :46.4h) while working from the three furlong pole out to the seven-furlong pole, never asked at any stage, splits of :11.1, :35 flat (to the wire) and then full of run in the final stages, up in :46.3. Was an unlucky runner-up in his debut; should produce a significant forward move with that race before him.
View Workout Video
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RACE 5: Post: 2:33 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Comedic; 4-Granola Girl; 7-Shoppingforpharoah
Forecast: The first leg of the late Pick-4 is a stronger-than-par maiden turf sprint for two-year-old fillies with three legitimate contenders. Shoppingforpharoah displayed excellent speed in her first career outing three weeks ago before being worn down late and finishing second in a six-furlong affair over the Santa Anita turf course. She shortens up a furlong today and should be on the lead again, so we’re expecting the J. Wong-trained filly to move forward and be tough to run down. Comedic was supposed to win her debut (she went off at 6/5) under similar conditions last month at Santa Anita but was simply second best after leading the way into the lane. She figures to improve based on trainer S. Callaghan’s stats with second time starters, which is quite strong (25%). A bullet five-furlong training track drill since raced (1:00 1/5, fastest of 12) catches the eye, so we’ll give the daughter of Practical Joke a reasonable chance to make amends. The improving Granola Girl looks to be the most dangerous of the closing types, and with the switch to F. Prat the Jack Milton filly is a “must use” as well.
Notable Workouts:
Comedic (November 5, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.3h TT). Grade: B
Breezing every step of way, final three furlongs in :12.1 and :35.3, very sharp through the lane while displaying easy action with plenty of power. Hard to believe she got beat in her debut based on this drill. Have to think she’ll step forward vs. maiden juvenile fillies next time.
View Workout Video
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RACE 6: Post: 3:03 PT Grade: B-
Single: 11-Chollima
Forecast: The sixth race is a bottom-rung $8,000 claiming sprint for older fillies and mares. Big ticket players may decide to go fishing and spread deeply but we’ll try to save money, single Chollima, and simply hope to be right. Claimed in five of her last six starts and back in the barn of trainer S. Knapp, who won with her at Del Mar during the summer meeting, the daughter of Paddy O’Prado has the route-to-sprint angle that we like while being reunited with “win rider” A. Cedillo. Though drawn a bit farther out in the 11-hole at this five and one-half furlong distance, she should have enough tactical speed to secure a reasonable second flight, stalking position and then have dead aim from the head of the lane to the wire. First or second in nine of 13 career starts and a two-time winner over the local main track, she’s well-spotted to return to winning form at a reasonable 5/2 on the morning line.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:33 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Lava Lane; 6-Hot Rageous
Forecast: Hot Rageous shows up for a $20,000 tag (her first start in a claimer) after winning a pair of decent allowance sprints over the all-weather surface at Golden Gate Fields in late summer. This is an optional state-bred affair offering a lucrative $72,000 purse (she’s only eligible because she was entered to be claimed), so we suspect trainer P. Miller probably expects to lose her but won’t mind if she can take home the winner’s 60% share of the pot. At 2-1 on the morning line and with F. Prat taking the call, the sophomore daughter of Idiot Proof has speed figures that make her the one to beat. Lava Lane, a sharp runner-up over this course and distance last time out, projects to be in the second flight while saving ground from her rail post position. She’s lightly raced and improving and is guaranteed a good trip, so with another forward move the P. D’Amato-trained daughter of Unusual Heat seems sure to make a serious run for it.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:03 PT Grade: B-
Use: 5-La Pulcinela; 7-Zahra
Forecast: We’ll double the finale, a restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming main track miler for older fillies and mares. La Pulcinela drops to her lowest level ever after a series of strong, consistent recent outings vs. slightly tougher foes. The J. Wong-trained daughter of Flatter earned a career top number when a distant second in an optional claiming/starter’s allowance affair last month at Santa Anita, and while the class drop might appear a tad suspicious, we’re assuming the barn is simply trying to win a race. Zahra adds blinkers for the first time after finishing a respectable runner-up at this level last month. She’s not as fast on numbers as our top pick and is just 1-for-30 in her career but she can be used as insurance in a saver role in case the favorite, for whatever reason, fails to fire.
Notable Workouts:
Zahra (November 4, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.1h). Grade: B-
In blinkers, asked a bit late and did okay for a cheap type in solo five-furlong main track drill, splits of :23.3, :35.3 and 1:01.1 while appearing to hold her form. Not keen on winning (1-for-30) but usually gets at least a piece of it.
View Workout Video
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