Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily “Workout Report, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: X
Use: 2-Supersonic Flyer; 4-Roses R Blue
Forecast: Roses R Blue finished more than five lengths clear of the rest in a promising debut at this maiden $50,000 level last month at Santa Anita in a race that earned a decent number. The L. Mendez barn has strong stats with the second-time starter angle, so we’re expecting the daughter of Bluegrass Cat to produce a forward move, one that should be good enough to win. However, at 4/5 on the morning line there really isn’t any wagering value to be found. Supersonic Flyer, a distant third in the same race as ‘Blue exits and already with eight races on her resume, has far less room to improve but may be worth including on a ticket or two as a back-up or a saver.
RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Love My Jimmy; 5-Surplus
Forecast: Here’s a fairly competitive $50,000 claiming turf sprint restricted to 3-year-olds with several possibilities. We’ll try to survive and advance using just two, but if you feel to need to spread a bit deeper, go right ahead. Surplus shows up in a seller for the first time and at this level can win with a repeat of his nice maiden tally over this course and distance two races back. With the switch to F. Prat, the Fed Biz gelding should have his best chance from a stalking position outside the likely front-runner Love My Jimmy, a first-off-the-claim play for H. Palma (always strong with this angle) fresh from a win in a similar affair in late August and with a healthy series of workouts in the interim.
RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Try to Capture; 4-Funkenstein
Forecast: Try to Capture stretches out for the first time while also removing blinkers, two angles that always catch our eye. The P. Miller-trained gelding has burned money as the favorite in his last two starts but with a good break in the weights received with the switch to bug boy D. Herrera the son of Uncaptured seems set to produce a career top performance in this modest $20,000 claiming main track miler. Funkenstein plummets to the bottom and may have found his friends. With several previous speed figures that are good enough to win at this level combined with the pivotal jockey switch to F. Prat, the M. Puype-trained gelding should be a major player from off the pace. We’ll give Try to Capture the edge on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Divine Armor; 4-Arham; 5-Phantom Dance
Forecast: This is a stronger-than-average first-level allowance optional claiming main track miler for older horses and requires some coverage in rolling exotic play. Arham is fast on numbers and this Saratoga shipper appears extremely live and well-meant while seeking some of that valuable ship-and-win money for new trainer V. Cerin. He’s a one-paced grinder but his local works are solid, he can fire fresh (won his debut) and attracts the barn’s go-to rider J. Hernandez, all of which makes him the logical morning line favorite at 9/5. Divine Armor is winless in three starts this year but should benefit immensely from the switch to F. Prat. The J. Sadler-trained colt projects to secure a comfortable ground-saving mid-pack early position and then have his chance to grind away from the quarter pole home. Phantom Dance has won his last three starts in convincing fashion and projects to be on or near a comfortable pace (his chances increase if he becomes the controlling speed). On pure numbers he’s a tad slower than our top selection but with continued improvement he should be able to act at this level.
RACE 5: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 6-Kitten’s Kid; 7-Issa Court
Forecast: Kitten’s Kid and Issa Court, two-three finishers sprinting on grass at Santa Anita last month, meet again in this one mile grassy affair for older maiden fillies and mares. ‘Kid was on the pace in that sprint and was nosed out right on the wire; today stretching out for the first time – and with a pedigree that suggests the added distance will be well within his range – the P. D’Amato-trained filly is listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite and likely will go lower. ‘Court displayed promise in her debut with a less than ideal trip and seems certain to improve with distance and experience. The D. Blacker-trained filly shows a nice half mile breeze since raced, retains J. Hernandez, and is squarely priced at 5-1 on the morning line. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with Kitten’s Kid the logical top choice.
RACE 6: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: A-
Single: 5-Sir London
Forecast: Sir London caught a buzzsaw in his debut and ran very well to be a clear second after a slow start and some traffic trouble along the rail in the opening quarter mile. He’s trained splendidly since, so we’re expecting the son of Malibu Moon to step forward in a big way and graduate from what looks to be a decent field of maiden juveniles. The S. Callaghan-trained colt retains F. Prat and while he’ll probably will go lower than his morning line of 5/2, we’ll make him a win play and rolling exotic single.
Air Combat (November 8, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2hg). Grade: B-
Wesleyan (November 8, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2hg). Grade: B-
Stable mates in B. Baffert’s barn went stride-for-stride in gate drill with ‘Combat maybe a tad quicker in the early stages while going a bit easier, splits of :24.2, :35.4, :47.3 and 1:00.2, steady drill with both under mild coaxing late. Both have some ability, but we’d tend to want to see a race first.
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Sir London (November 6, Santa Anita, 4f, :48h). Grade: B+
Just coasting under a stout hold every step of the way, smoothly changing leads (stayed on left lead his debut), splits of :23.3 and :48 flat, able to go considerably faster if permitted. Caught a tough customer in his debut and finished a promising second; have to think he’ll step forward in a bit way next time.
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Newgrange (November 6, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1h). Grade: B
In blinkers, in company with Doppelganger (same time) for B. Baffert and wasn’t really asked with steady splits of :12 flat, :23.3, :35.3 and 1:00.1, decent enough while head-and-head the wire. Colt by Violence has some speed, may need an outing before being totally cranked up.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B+
Use: 3-Riding With Dino; 5-Alligato
Forecast: Alligato was given a run in his debut and then, as expected, stepped forward considerably in his next outing. Despite severe traffic trouble on the turn and again approaching the stretch, the son of Kitten’s Joy produced a serious late bid to win going away while visually much more dominant than the length-and-one-quarter margin of victory might indicate. The late-to-the-party 4-year moves up a level that should be well within his abilities but shortens to five furlongs over a course that promotes speed, so his task certainly won’t be easy. That said, the M. Glatt-trained gelding has much more upside than the others. Riding With Dino has rising numbers and good tactical speed that should allow the R. Hess, Jr.-trained gelding to have a strong presence every step of the way. In the frame in all three starts since returning from a nearly two year layoff, the son of Vronsky shows three nice breezes since raced to indicate another forward move is likely. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play with Alligato receiving the bulk of the action.
RACE 8: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 3-Under the Stars; 5-Eda
Forecast: The listed stakes winning and graded stakes-placed Eda, fresh from a clever score in the Anoakia S. at Santa Anita, draws the lovely outside post, retains F. Prat, and is listed as the 3/5 morning line favorite in this five-runner renewal of the Desi Arnaz S. for juvenile filly. She’s the logical short-priced favorite and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play, but we’ll prefer stable mate Under the Stars on top. A closing third vs. maidens in her debut just two weeks ago, the daughter of Pioneerof the Nile gets an extra half furlong to work with, adds blinkers, and seem sure to improve a ton with that bit of experience behind her. Fact is, she always struck us as the better of two fillies based on her morning workouts and today, she gets a chance to verify that initial impression. Listed at 5/2 on the morning line, she’s our top pick and win play at anywhere near that price.
RACE 9: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Ottawa Fire; 8-Bud Knight; 9-Cosmo
Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in the nightcap, but this race is a grass gab bag for restricted (nw-2) claimers, so best advice is to include as many as your budget allows. Ottawa Fire drops considerably in class and appears to have found his proper winning level. The P. D’Amato-trained gelding made the running and weakened late in a 10-furlong allowance affair last time out but might employ a patient style against this group. On pure numbers he’s good enough to win. Bud Knight retains F. Prat after rallying to be second in a similar restricted claimer in mid-October at Santa Anita. He’s just 1-for-19 and certainly not one to trust, but if he can turn in two alike, he’ll be in the battle. Cosmo has the first-time-in-a-claimer angle and earned a career top speed figure when a closing fourth sprinting at Golden Gate Fields in his most recent outing two months ago. He’s 6-1 on the morning line and is worth including at that price.
Cosmo (November 6, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.3h TT). Grade: B
Good maintenance drill for N. Drysdale, splits of :36.3 and 1:00.3, never really asked much in smooth drill while remaining on edge. In good shape and is worth a look with a class drop.
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