Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Del Mar Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Wednesday, July 18, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer sound wagering value.

DEL MAR

Wednesday, July 18, 2018

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RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use:  6-Popular Kid; 9-Preacher Roe

Forecast: The opener appears loaded with front-running types, so closers should have every chance.  Popular Kid has the proper style and is a first-off-the-claim for O’Neill (27% with a flat-bet profit), so he may be as good as any.  The “other” O’Neill – Preacher Roe – sports the same angle.  These are the two that we’ll prefer for small ticket players, but nothing would surprise us.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 2:33 PT. Grade: C+

Use:  3-Kylemore; 7-Upo; 8-Samdar

Forecast: Lots of class droppers in this $40,000 claimer restricted to 3-year-olds in a race that projects to have a faster-than-par early pace.  Kylmore needs patient handling; we’ll assume that’s the thought process Harty is using for switching to Blanc.  Upo stretches out for the first time, retains “win” rider Prat, and has the pedigree to handle two-turns.  Samdar has steadily rising speed figures and broke his maiden at this trip.  He’s been entered twice in races that didn’t fill since his most recent outing.  In a wide open grass grab bag, you may find the need to spread deeper.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 3:03 PT. Grade: B-

Use:  2-Ketos; 3-Gonna Fly Now; 6-Junior Gilliam

Forecast:Ketos is fast on figures, is a first-off-the-claim for Jacobson, and gets a huge break in the weights.  He’s been away since mid-May but his recent work tab should have him plenty fit.  Jacobson’s other entrant – Junior Gilliam - is in good form and may be the most dependable of the closers.  Gonna Fly Now has the route-to-sprint angle in his second-off-a-layoff for Baltas (good stats) and a prior win over this track.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 3:33 PT. Grade: B

Use:  2-Square Peggy; 5-Flying to the Line; 10-Dichotomy; 11-Opus Won

Forecast:  In what appears to be a below par race for state-bred maiden special weight juvenile fillies, Flying to the Line has the benefit of a prior outing - a solid runner-up effort at Los Alamitos last month - and not much more should be needed to graduate.  Dichotomy was a no-excuse third in that same race but has a right to produce a forward move and therefore deserves some consideration.  Among the newcomers, Square Peggy has flashed some zip in the morning but has shown a tendency to lug out in recent drills while Opun Won sports a bullet drill at San Luis Rey Downs and may be able to run some for Baltas and Prat.

​RACE 5: Post 4:03 PT. Grade: B+

Single:  2-Arms Runner

Forecast:  Arms Runner exits two infinitely tougher races and should greatly appreciate this class relief.  He’s had a habit of not breaking well – and has been losing his tactical position because of it – but if he can secure a decent early position the Miller-trained colt should be along in time as a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

 ​​​​RACE 6: Post 4:33 PT. Grade: B-

Use:  1-Shivermetimbers; 4-Divisor; 8-Regulate

Forecast: Regulate always has been well-regarded but made hard work of it when graduating at Los Alamitos earlier this month in what was his first start as a gelding.   However, the number was solid and we suspect the son of Quality Road has further improvement in him.  If he’s going to develop into a good sort – and he certainly looks the part – the Baffert-trained 3-year-old will win right back.  Divisor appeared a bit rusty in his recent comeback but should be fitter and tougher today.  The D’Amato barn has superior stats with second-off-layoff runners) and this Harlan’s Holiday gelding won over this track last November.  Like Divisor, Shivermetimbers is perfect in one prior start at Del Mar and is a fit on numbers while being reunited with “win” rider Smith.  He’s a one-paced grinder without a definitive style but should enjoy a ground-saving trip from the rail.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 5:03 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 2-True Validity; 7-Brill; 9-Bizwhacks

Forecast:  Bizwhacks and True Validity finished second and third, respectively, in a decent race for this level last month at Santa Anita and both should benefit from the experience.  But Brill might be cut from a different cloth.  A $1 million yearling by Medaglia d’Oro, the Hollendorfer-trained filly has done everything like a quality filly in morning trials and should be a short price to graduate at first asking.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 5:33 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Texas Wedge; 4-Artie B Good; 5-Desert Stone

Forecast:  Texas Edge and Artie B Good exit the same race – a strong conditioned allowance Hillside sprint for older horses – and both should improve considerably while stretching out and facing 3-year-olds only.  In a race that on paper is loaded with speed, both should be strong factors from off the pace, especially Artie B Good, a son of Artie Schiller who may have found a home on grass.  We’ll also toss in the progressing Desert Stone, who parlayed a perfect trip to beat first-level allowance foes with a career top figure at this distance last month at Santa Anita.

 

​RACE 9: Post 6:03 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 3-Fawree; 6-Super Duper Cooper; 9-Blame Joe

Forecast:  Blame Joe returned from a 13-month layoff and appeared vastly improved, though his weak maiden $20,000 rivals may have made him look better than his 10-length romp last month does on paper.  We still like him right back; the gelded son of Blame was sharp and relaxed in a pair of subsequent easy workouts and the stretch out to a mile should suit him well.  If it’s not him, there are several others that appear capable of winning, including Super Duper Cooper, an in-form gelding with a win over this main track last year, and Fawree, a first-time gelding making his first start following a $40,000 Mathis claim and switching to Pratt.

 

​ RACE 10: Post 6:33 PT.  Grade: B+

Single: 6-Henry County

Forecast: Henry County ran quite well in a fast, productive maiden sprint at Santa Anita in his debut, keeping on nicely when fourth while appearing to need the experience and more distance.  Based on an impressive series of workouts since that race including a bullet six furlong move late last month, the son of Alternation should step forward considerably.  There’s no reason he won’t handle two-turns and turf so let’s make the Mandella-trained gelding a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Del Mar Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Wednesday, July 18, 2018

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