The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Sunday, August 27, 2017
RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C
Use: 2-Rockantharos; 3-Octofy; 4-Nazareth
Forecast: There was a rather significant anti-rail bias yesterday over the Del Mar main track. Might be wise to go to school early in today’s program to see if the situation remains. Rockantharos is slow on numbers but won her race before last and ran a bit better than the line will show in her most recent effort. Not much improvement will be needed. Nazareth fits on figures but is just 3-for-32 lifetime, so she’s certainly not one to trust. Octofy has been away almost a year and returns at the bottom – not really a sign of confidence – but the barn in strong with layoff runners and she might be capable of firing a big shot fresh.
RACE 2: Post 2:35 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Li’l Grazen; 6-Chay Up and Away
Forecast: Chay Up and Away ran reasonably well in her debut when pressing the pace and then saving second money while earning a pretty good figure for the level. If she can produce a forward move today she’ll be hard to beat. Li’l Grazen remains above her claim level in a sign of confidence by Carava, gets a break in the weights with the switch to Roman and is clearly the most dangerous of the closing types.
RACE 3: Post 3:09 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 5-Vallestina; 6-Angel Allie
Forecast: Loved the way Angel Allie won her debut over this course and distance with exceptional turn of foot from the head of the lane to the wire. With a similar effort against this tougher group she can score right back. Vallestina is undefeated in two starts, but visually impressive on-the-lead performances, and if she can duplicate those dirt efforts on turf (and as a daughter of Leroidesanimaux she’s certainly bred for it) she’ll be hard to catch once again.
RACE 4: Post: 3:40 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Small Town Hero; 3-City Steel; 4-Shackleford Banks
Forecast: Shackleford Banks, with two strong races this meeting over the Del Mar main track, is wheeled back quickly by new trainer Miller (31% with a flat-bet profit with the first-off-the-claim angle) and seems quite capable of acting at this level. Third with trouble in his most recent outing, the veteran gelding wants to beat you (14 career wins from 35 starts) and should be bearing down in the final furlong. City Steel is another veteran with a winning spirit (12 wins from 41 lifetime starts) and takes a significant class drop to a realistic level. Small Town Hero should be the controlling speed and if not pressured early could take this field gate-to-wire, just as he did earlier this month vs. $20,000 foes. Additionally, new trainer Brocklebank has an excellent record with first-off-claim plays.
RACE 5: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 6-Hitters Park
Forecast: Hitters Park is improving with racing and finds an ideal spot to return to winning form. The lightly-raced gelding ran better than the line will show from a difficult outside draw over this course and distance when third last time out; prior to that outing the son of Cowtown Cat earned a giant speed figure beating maiden claimers. With the switch to Stevens and two nice workouts since raced, the Gus Headley-trained gelding should be hard to handle.
RACE 6: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: X
Single: 1-Paradise Woods
Forecast: Paradise Woods has trained in superlative fashion for her first start since failing as the favorite in the Kentucky Oaks over a sloppy track she clearly did not handle. The daughter of Union Rags should outclass this field at odds of even more or less and rates as a short price rolling exotic single.
RACE 7: Post 5:10 PT. Grade: X
Forecast: Debuting Nero has been all the rage in the morning for Baffert and should be more than fit enough to win at first asking at a very short price. He’ll have to leave cleanly from the rail – and perhaps buck the anti-inside bias that existed yesterday – but if he’s as good as he’s supposed to be he’ll none of that will matter.
RACE 8: Post 5:40 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Bird is the Word; 4-Absolutely Stylishly
Forecast: Let’s try to get by using just two in this grass grab bag for entry-level allowance 3-year-olds. Bird is the Word has been falling short when facing stakes foes recently but drops to his proper level today while being re-equipped with blinkers. A repeat of his race before last probably beats this field and with the switch to Bejarano we’re expecting the son of Birdstone to have every chance from the top of the lane to the wire. Absolutely Stylish is trying turf for the first time and if the son of Uncle Mo enjoys the surface switch he’ll be a main player as well. His win two races back last sprint at Santa Anita earned a speed figure that can beat this field.
RACE 9: Post 6:10 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 7-Make It a Triple; 8-Sir Samson; 9-It’s Tiz Time
Forecast: This extended sprint is a messy affair with any number of possibilities. We’ll use three but feel free to spread deeper if you can afford to. It’s Tiz Time earned a sharp number when winning his debut last spring and then was no factor in a tough entry-level allowance sprint after a slow break. He’s in with starter’s allowance company today and should fit nicely with a clean trip. Sir Samson has speed figures that are good enough to win but seems to lack a winning punch. He should be within striking range and have every chance. Make It a Triple was visually quite pleasing winning a bottom-rung maiden claimer over this track and distance earlier this month. It was a confidence building victory and with another forward he can be right there again.
RACE 10: Post 6:40 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Waldorf; 9-Red King
Forecast: Waldorf turned in a vastly improved performance when switching to turf and employing deep closing tactics in a sharp maiden claiming win over this course earlier this month. He really won’t have to improve much to score right back in this starter’s allowance affair. Red King was off slowly, raced wide and didn’t show his best stuff vs. similar in his last start but with a better trip today he can be heard from late. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but then have extra tickets keying Waldorf on top.
Sunday, August 27, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B+
RACE 2: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Markitoff; 6-Spring On Curlin; 7-Ninety One Assault
RACE 3: Post 2:07 ET. Grade: B
Use: 5-Portfolio Manager; 6-Harlan Punch
RACE 4: Post: 2:41 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 1-Hold Me Down
RACE 5: Post 3:15 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Twofer; 3-Quick Quick Quick; 10-Everybody Loves Me
RACE 6: Post 3:49 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Impazible Creek; 6-Frost Wise; 7-She’sakittylat
RACE 7: Post 4:25 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 4-First Appeal
RACE 8: Post 5:02 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Cite; 7-Astounding
RACE 9: Post 5:40 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Miss Ella; 6-Ginger N Rye; 8-Fair Point
RACE 10: Post 6:18 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Gio Game; 3-Cool Beans; 6-Data Dependent