The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
B=Solid Play.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
DEL MAR
Thursday, August 3, 2017
RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Pumpkin Star; Mr. Hale; 6-Summer Buddha
Forecast: A real messy six-runner opener in which no result could be considered surprising. Mr. Hale earned a career top speed figure when third in a decent race over the track a couple of weeks ago and should be primed for another good try. Summer Buddha, first off the claim for Periban, shortens up after a dull two-turn try and adds blinkers. He has a right to improve and will have clear sailing outside. Pumpkin Star broke his maiden over this track in his debut in what is his only career start sprinting over a fast track. That angle alone makes him worth using in rolling exotic play.
RACE 2: Post 2:35 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Unlucky Hillary; 6-Chocolate Coated
Forecast: Both Unlucky Hillary and Chocolate Coated are trying two-turns for the first time and both have the profile to improve considerably with the stretch out in trip. They’re hard to separate, but we’re fairly convinced the winner will be one or the other. The former has the benefit of a recent race over the track while the latter has the edge in speed figures and is training like she’s fit and ready for her first start on dirt and her first outing since April.
RACE 3: Post 3:09 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 6-West Coast Bias
Forecast: West Coast Bias is seeking some of that valuable ship-and-win money in her first start since arriving from Laurel Park, where she just missed as the favorite while earning a career top number in a good maiden affair in late June. In what appears to be a rather weak race for the level, the daughter of Unbridled’s Song seems the solid top choice and a legitimate candidate to be rolling exotic single.
RACE 4: Post: 3:40 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Braddock; 3-Special Story; 6-Informality
Forecast: Special Story didn’t get involved in a tough starter’s allowance hillside turf sprint in his comeback in late June, but we’re expecting a much better performance today due to a significant class drop and the return to the track of his maiden win just about a year ago. He continues to look sharp in the morning and has the proper style for this extended sprint trip. Informality, a route-to-sprint class dropper returning to his claim level and a first-time gelding, fits nicely with these off his race-before last and like Special Story should be a late threat. Braddock broke his maiden gamely and was claimed by Hollendorfer, but is dropping off that win for his new connections, not exactly an inspiring pattern. However, he’s a fit on figures and he gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Roman.
RACE 5: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Ministertomyheart; 3-Isee It in Hiseyes; 6-Summer’s Burst
Forecast: Summer’s Burst exits a tough, productive straight maiden race, was subsequently privately purchased by clients of O’Neill, and today shows up in a modest maiden claiming sprint for juveniles. He should be good enough to beat this field. Miyadi has two live entrants with Ministertomyheart, who was a bit green in his debut, closed well but too late, and should improve, and Isee It in Hiseyes, who was off slowly in his Los Alamitos debut but retains Roman and is likely to produce a forward move.
RACE 6: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Red Stich; 8-Winemenow
Forecast: There’s a ton of speed on paper in this five furlong turf sprint for fillies and mares, so let’s look at a couple of stalker/closers to try to pick up the leaders. Winemenow broke her maiden sprinting down the hill at Santa Anita in February with speed figure that makes her the one to beat today. However, she’s drawn outside and will need some luck to negotiate traffic when she begins to quicken entering the lane. Red Stich just beat a next-out winner in good style and projects to enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip. She may prefer dirt, but she did run well over this turf course in a two-turn affair back in November of 2015.
RACE 7: Post 5:10 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Ike Walker; 7-Kristo
Forecast: Kristo surfaces in a claimer for the first time and may have found his friends. The veteran gelding – just 2-for-21 lifetime – continues to impress in morning workouts and should enjoy an ideal pace-stalking trip outside. Ike Walker is a course specialist (4-2-1-0) and is another class dropper trying to find his proper level. He’s reunited with “win rider” Prat and has several back speed figures that are more than good enough to win.
RACE 8: Post 5:40 PT. Grade: C
Use: 2-Insubordinatiion; 7-Spiritual Warrior; 9-Themopolis; 10-Majestic Journey
Forecast: This maiden special weight two-turn turf race for California-bred horses is borderline inscrutable. Spread, spread, spread. Insubordination lands a good inside post and may employ gate-to-wire tactics. Spiritual Warrior is bred to run long on the lawn and gets his chance after being well-backed in a dirt sprint in his debut. Thermopolis is a first-time gelding and has numbers that make him competitive, while Majestic Journey is bred to move up on grass and is a first-off-the-claim for Hess. Use these four and anybody else that catches your fancy.
SARATOGA
Thursday, August 3, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: X
Pass/No Play
RACE 2: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Iwishirish; 4-Hansen’s Help; 12-Love You Dearly
RACE 3: Post 2:07 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Big Rock; 4-Hogy
RACE 4: Post: 2:41 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Becker’s Galaxy; 4-Beyond the Green; 7-John’s Island
RACE 5: Post 3:15 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Mad Dog Matters; 3-Bonnie Scot; 9-Dreams Are Pazible
RACE 6: Post 3:59 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-May Flowers; 5-First Appeal; 7-Avery Maeve
RACE 7: Post 4:25 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 7-Overnegotiate; 8-Enchanting Kitten; 12-Tamit
RACE 8: Post 5:02 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 1-Hard Study
RACE 9: Post 5:40 ET. Grade: C
Use: 3-Whiskey Seven; 5-Seize; 6-Banana Thief; 9-Curious Cal
RACE 10: Post 6:18 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Paz the Wine; 5-Scarlett Jo Hansen; 10-Wish Upon
