The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
B=Solid Play.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
DEL MAR
Sunday, August 6, 2017
RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: X
Single: 2-Freddies Dream
Forecast: Freddies Dream has little to beat and looks around even money on paper. Fresh from a highly-rated win sprinting at Santa Anita, the Miller-trained Good Journey gelding catches a weak field for the level and won’t have to improve much at all to score right back. However, considering how cold the barn has been so far at this meeting, and considering the short price of the logical winner, this race might be best left alone.
RACE 2: Post 2:35 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 3-Simmy’s Temple
Forecast: Simmy’s Temple has run well over this course in the past and arrives in good form and ready to resume her winning ways. First or second in six of 13 career starts, the O’Neill-trained import likes to lay back and then produce a late kick, and that style works much better over the Del Mar turf course than it does at Golden Gate Fields. She’s the solid choice at or around her morning line of 5/2.
RACE 3: Post 3:09 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Wish You Were Mine; 6-Unchanged; 10-Gas Station Suchi
Forecast: Three first-timers appear to have plenty of ability and should make their presence felt in this juvenile maiden filly sprint. Gas Station Suchi has the benefit of the cozy outside post and has done excellent work in the morning for Baltas. This barn doesn’t win with many first timers but this daughter of Into Mischief looks cranked up. Wish You Were Mine has some quality but doesn’t strike us as a quick type. From the rail, her task won’t be easy but at this extended sprint trip she should come running late. Unchanged impressed in a gate work the other day and is pretty quick. She looks very well-meant under Bejarano.
RACE 4: Post: 3:40 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Buymeabond; 4-Atomic Rule; 6-Pepper Crown
Forecast: Atomic Rule doesn’t have the healthiest of patterns – he was claimed for $32,000 in May and finally makes it back to the races on a one-level drop – but he lands Prat, has a prior win over the course, and is good enough off his best effort. Buymeabond always has liked this course – he’s been first or second in six of nine career starts – but he’s winless this year and age might be catching up to him. The most attractive contender based on price is Pepper Crown, an ex-classer with the kind of closing kick that should be more effective at Del Mar than at Golden Gate Fields, where it’s usually difficult to make up a lot of ground. He’s a real pro and is certain to give it his best.
RACE 5: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Smokem; 3-Bookies Luck; 11-Continental Divide
Forecast: Anything goes in this state-bred juvenile stakes that has questions marks surrounding a group of lightly-raced colts that are at various (and unpredictable) stages of developments. Smokem and Continental Divide finished one-two in a decent maiden sprint earlier this meeting and both give indication they’ll improve with distance and experience. Bookies Luck has worked well over the track since graduating and is another that seems progressive. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics but you should spread as deeply as you can afford to.
RACE 6: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 3-Microrithms
Forecast: Microrithms has the potential to be an excellent five furlong turf sprinter and gets his chance to prove it today while getting in with a feather. The Baffert-trained colt continues to impress in the morning (he looked better than Mor Spirit in a recent team drill) and is strong in the speed figure department. There’s plenty of value here at 4-1 on the morning line if you can get it.
RACE 7: Post 5:10 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Shackalov; 9-Take the One O One
Forecast: This state-bred maiden sprint boils down to two nice prospects who should separate themselves from the rest when it matters in the final furlong. Shackalov had a brutal trip early on in his debut, but after trailing to the top of the lane he took hold and flew home to finish fourth before galloping out past everybody on the clubhouse turn. Today he gets an extra furlong to work with, but had the misfortune of drawing the rail again. Take the One O One was worn down late at Los Alamitos to be second as the favorite in his debut, but has come back to train quite well over the Del Mar main track and seems certain to produce a forward move.
RACE 8: Post 5:40 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Colonist; 7-Sharp Samurai; 8-Double Touch
Forecast: Sharp Samurai and Double Touch are proven in good company on turf and no doubt have additional forward moves in them; but Colonist may have a higher ceiling. He’ll be making his first start on grass but trained very well around dogs in a solo spin the other so we’re going to assume he’ll handle the lawn just fine. We’re also expecting the addition of blinkers to have a positive effective. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics but then press with Colonist on top.
RACE 9: Post 6:10 PT. Grade: B
Use: 6-Orejas; 10-Whata Guess
Forecast: Not much will be needed to win this bottom-rung maiden claiming extended sprint. Orejas has improved with every outing and has the proper style for seven furlongs. Based on a good recent runner-up effort over the track, the Mike McCarthy-trained gelding is strictly the one to beat. Whata Guess flashed speed vs. tougher before fading in his debut; the Hofmans-trained gelding should be fitter and tougher today following a strong six furlong drill at Los Alamitos last week. If he can shake loose early without pressure, he could be long gone.
SARATOGA
Sunday, August 6, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B
Use: 5-Lucky Lotto; 6-Are We Not Men
RACE 2: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: C
Use: 2-Escapade; 4-Wild and Funny; 5-Golden Orb; 6-Emmport
RACE 3: Post 2:07 ET. Grade: X
Single: 6-Rally Cry
RACE 4: Post: 2:41 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Surface Strike; 2-Summer Mischief; 5-Appealing Briefs
RACE 5: Post 3:15 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Starwithsilver; 2-Cozzy Spring;
RACE 6: Post 3:59 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Dessert Honeys; 7-Smarty Smart; 10-History Supreme
RACE 7: Post 4:25 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Diamond Jim; 7-Holding Aces; 11-Mutaraamy
RACE 8: Post 5:02 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Storm Prophet; 4-Shiraz; 9-E J’s Legacy
RACE 9: Post 5:40 ET. Grade: B
Use: 4-Royal Inheritance; 5-Stormy’s Song; 8-Luz Mimi
RACE 10: Post 6:18 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Pure Sensation; 4-Green Mask
RACE 11: Post 6:54 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Otto; 7-Steamboat Bill; 8-Jo’s Bold Cat
