The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
Sunday, April 21, 2019
Use: 1-Sure Angel; 2-Incredibly Lucky
Forecast: Incredibly Lucky missed at even money in her debut but actually ran a winning race and seems certain to improve with that effort under her belt. She should be the controlling speed, but at 6/5 on the morning line she’s won’t be offering much in the way of wagering value. Sure Angel vans down from Golden Gate Fields and we suspect she has a bit of run despite a moderate series of workouts. We’ll toss her in as a saver.
RACE 2: Post 1:29 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Owning; 5-Toothless Wonder
Forecast: Owning failed to reproduce best form with fading as the favorite vs. starter’s allowance foes in late March so this drop in class is warranted. The Carava-trained gelding should stick much better in this $25,000 claiming sprint for 3-year-olds, assuming he leaves cleanly from the rail. Toothless Wonder, exiting the same race as Owning, is comfortably drawn outside in this five-runner affair and should have every chance from a stalking position. The winner likely will be one or the other, but neither will offer much value, so we’ll pass the race but use both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-
Forecast: Suprema surfaces in a claimer for the first time and this class drop could make the winning difference for the Desormeaux brothers. She also has the route-to-sprint angle that we always like, so in a modest field for $30,000 fillies and mares the daughter of Strong Mandate should be forwardly placed and then have every chance when it matters. At 5/2 on the morning line she’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 4: Post 2:31 PT. Grade: X
Single: 3-Surfside Sunset
Forecast: Surfside Sunset certainly has his issues. He was a voided claim last summer at Del Mar and his two runs this year have been disappointing, but at this much lower level in his third start off a layoff the Hess-trained gelding seems capable of getting back on the beam. However, at 7/5 on the morning line there’s really no value to be found, so we’ll use him as a rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.
RACE 5: Post 3:02 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Runnin’withdadevil; 3-Appreciated; 4-General Mo
Forecast: Runnin’withdadevil flashed ability in his debut when a decent third in a similar state-bred maiden affair and with the addition of blinkers seems likely to produce a forward move off that race. If he secures a good trip from the rail, the son of Lucky Pulpit should be tough to beat. Appreciated has been second in both of his career starts, but his last speed figure was lower than his first, a pattern we’re not thrilled with. Still, he’s a contender in a soft field. General Mo was off slowly and then closed a gap to split the field in his debut in the same race Appreciated exits. The son of Uncle Mo has a right to improve and is worth tossing in on a ticket or two.
RACE 6: Post 3:32 PT. Grade: X
Single: 2-Super Patriot
Forecast: Super Patriot has been chasing tougher but today the Baffert-trained filly lands a nice inside draw in a below average $25,000 claiming turf miler for fillies and mares while retaining excellent grass jockey Van Dyke. In what projects to be a slowly run race early on, the daughter of Unusual Heat should find herself on or near the lead throughout. We’ll demand more that her 9/5 morning line in the straight pool, but if nothing else we can use her a rolling exotic single.
RACE 7: Post 4:04 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Baby Ice; 4-Miss Lady Ann
Forecast: Miss Lady Ann looked very good breaking her maiden in convincing fashion in early March, has trained steadily since, and is protected in this starter’s allowance sprint for fillies and mares. Baze stays aboard and should have this daughter of Munnings in an ideal stalking position throughout. Baby Ice likes this track – all three of her career victories have been accomplished here – and has enough early speed to worry this field. She’s a strong fit on speed figure so at 7/2 on the morning line she’s worth including in your rolling exotics.
RACE 8: Post 4:36 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 1-Holly Hundy
Forecast: Holly Hundy has improved with each outing and appears ready to graduate in this five-furlong turf sprint maiden sophomore fillies. The Cerin-trained daughter of Yes It’s True should be quick enough from the rail to make or press the pace and exert her superiority when it matters. She’s 3-1 on the morning line and at that price we’ll make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.