Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Sunday, June 16, 2019

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.

A=Highest degree of confidence.  

B=Solid Play.  

C=Least preferred, or pass.  

X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

SANTA ANITA

Sunday, June 16, 2019

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Smiling Annie; 6-Moonshine Annie; 8-Sunrise Royale

Forecast: Sunrise Royale ran quite well in her turf debut over this course and distance when a sharp runner-up at 33-1 in a similar state-bred first-level allowance affair.  Not much more will be needed to handle this task.  She gets a major jockey switch to Prat and projects to enjoy an ideal pace-prompting trip outside.  We’ll put her on top but use both of the Glatt-trained entrants, Smiling Annie and Moonshine Annie.  Smiling Annie broke her maiden in a Hillside affair in January has makes her first start since following a steady, healthy series of workouts.  She’s light in the speed figure department but has room to improve.  Her older half-sister, Moonshine Annie is just 1-for-17 in her career and was fourth in the same race Sunrise Royale exits, but she does have a pretty good late kick and could be dangerous if the pace is fast enough.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics, but the main punch goes to Sunrise Royale.

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​​RACE 2: Post 1:29 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Cal’s Gem; 8-Palace Prince

Forecast: Cal’s Gem finished more than five lengths clear of the rest when a strong runner-up to the very promising Fast Enough in a highly-rated maiden juvenile dash last month and with that race behind him the son of Calimonco – purchased for $1,700 as a yearling - seems ready to graduate.  Stranger danger comes in the form of Palace Prince, a first-timer from the first crop of Palace Malice in the Hollendorfer barn.  After breezing a quarter mile in :21 3/5, the promising colt brought $200,000 at the OBS March sale and looks very much like the one to fear most.  Interestingly, Smith taking the call.  We’ll put the proven element – Cal’s Gem – on top but use both in our rolling exotics.

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​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 3-Rayana; 5-Kiana’s Love

Forecast:Kiana’s Love graduated at first asking over this course and distance last month and did so in smart fashion with a better-than-par speed figure.  This clearly is a tougher group, but the D’Amato-trained filly had her form franked when runner-up Miss Hot Legs returned to win easily last weekend.  Rayana broke her maiden at first asking over a mile on grass at Del Mar last summer like a very good prospect, but then quickly disappeared.  She returns for Baffert (20% with layoffs) following a series of impressive main track workouts, so we’re expecting the daughter of Scat Daddy to be primed and ready.  We’ll include her in our rolling exotics while still preferring Kiana’s Love on top.

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​​​RACE 4: Post 2:31 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Tough But Nice; 5-Best Two Minutes

Forecast: The fourth race is a starter’s allowance sprint for $12,500 older horses.  Tough But Nice likely will produce strong effort while trying to make amends for missing at 50 cents on the dollar in his most recent outing last month.  On pure numbers he rates top billing; in fact, any one of his last three races would be good enough to get him back in the winner’s circle.  Best Two Minutes, a runaway winner for $12,500 last time out, is protected today in his first start since being claimed by Saldana and will be doing his best work late.  He should at least get a piece of it.  We’ll try to survive and advance using just these two. 

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​​RACE 5: Post 3:03 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Out of Balance; 3-Mucho Unusual

Forecast: Mucho Unusual won the Cal Cup Oaks in her turf debut in mid-February, doing so in gate-to-wire fashion in powerful fashion with a strong speed figure.  She drops to a first-level allowance affair, retains Prat, and will be hard to beat with anything close to her last effort.  Out of Balance has had trouble leaving the gate lately but if she can secure a second flight, ground-saving trip from her favorable rail post position the daughter of Kitten’s Joy can at least out finish the others.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play with strong preference on top to Mucho Unusual.

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​​RACE 6: Post 3:33 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 3-Rather Nosy; 5-Tapitha Bonita

Forecast: ​This starter’s allowance extended sprint for fillies and mares has two main contenders.  Tapitha Bonita looked sharp winning a state-bred first-level allowance sprint two races back and then earned a career-top speed figure when a distant third in a highly-rated affair behind Lady Ninja.  Either one of her last two efforts, in repeated today, makes her the one to beat.  Rather Nosy isn’t quite fast enough to win on pure numbers just yet. However, the 3-year-old daughter of Majesticperfection has an improving pattern, switches to Prat, and has the proper stalking/closing style for this six and one-half furlong trip. 

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RACE 7: Post 4:03 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Zaffinah; 2-Pantsonfire

Forecast: Pantsonfire won the recent 12-furlong Astra Stakes over this turf course for fun and should be just as effective in today’s Possibly Perfect Stakes despite shortening up to a mile and one-quarter.  All four of her career wins have been accomplished over the Santa Anita lawn, and with Prat staying aboard, the Irish-bred mare looks formidable right back.  Zaffinah, a smart runner-up at this distance in the Santa Ana Stakes in late March but second at odds-on in the subsequent Golden Poppy Stakes at Golden Gate Fields, lands the good rail and projects to enjoy an ideal ground-saving, second flight trip.  We’ll prefer Pantsonfire on top but use both in our rolling exotics. 

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​​RACE 8: Post 4:33 PT. Grade: B

Use: 5-Roadster; 6-Mucho Gusto

Forecast: Baffert has three of the six starters in this year’s Affirmed Stakes, including Santa Anita Derby winner Roadster, who subsequently finished 16th in the Kentucky Derby and will be making his first start since.  If he runs back to his local Derby victory, the son of Quality Road will beat this field.  However, stable mate Mucho Gusto, a convincing winner of the Laz Barrera Stakes over seven furlongs here last month, stretches out again and projects as the controlling speed.  If not policed early the son of Mucho Macho Man could be long gone.  Both should be included in your rolling exotics; we’ll go with Roadster as our top selection. 

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RACE 9: Post 5:03 PT. Grade: C+

Use: Ohtani; 7-Forecheck; 8-Boru

Forecast: We’ll use three in the finale, a difficult maiden claiming turf miler, but if you can afford to go deeper, go right ahead.  Forecheck produced a forward move in his most recent outing last November when third in his second career start after also hitting the board in his debut.  The gelded son of Lemon Drop Kid makes his comeback in this moderate spot for a barn that has good stats with layoff runners, so in a typical grass grab bag we’ll put him slightly on top.  Boru is strictly the one to beat after finishing third and then second in two outings since arriving for the Midwest.  The Cerin-trained son of Curlin looks on paper to be the most dangerous of the pace types.  Ohtani tries grass and stretches out for the first time, lands the rail, adds blinkers, and appears to be improving, having earned a career-top number when fourth in a recent extended dirt sprint at this level last month.  He’s intriguing at a decent price, but preference on top goes to Forecheck, but not with a great deal of conviction. 

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Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Sunday, June 16, 2019

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