The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
Saturday, June 15, 2019
Use: 3-Papa Turf; 4-Big Shanty; 6-Baby Bear’s Soup
Forecast: There’s little to choose among the three main contenders, so we’ll triple the race in rolling exotic play but otherwise pass the race. Big Shanty is a first-off-the-claim play for Sierra (from Baltas) after finishing a distant second in the same race that Baby Bear’s Soup wound up third. Statistically, this is a negative barn change, but ‘Shanty has several back numbers that would beat this field, so we’ll reluctantly put him slightly on top. ‘Soup lands the cozy outside draw and may employ stalking statics today after opening up early and then fading in that common race with ‘Shanty in mid-May. Papa Turf is another with some back form that charts well here, though his recent form vs. $10,000 foes isn’t terribly exciting. Tread lightly here.
RACE 2: Post 1:29 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 7-Kenjisstorm; 9-Push Through
Forecast: Kenjisstorm takes a significant drop in class to the optional $40,000 level and seems well-spotted for his first win in nearly 15 months. The D’Amato-trained veteran doesn’t necessarily need the lead to win but usually prefers to make the running, and in this spot the son of Stormy Atlantic projects to be on or near the front end throughout. Push Through isn’t as fast on speed figures as his main rival but the Bay Area shipper recently won a nice starter’s allowance event and should fold over from his outside draw into a comfortable second flight, stalking spot. He’s worth including as a back-up or a saver.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Bam Bams Lil River; 4-Time for Suzzie
Forecast: Bam Bams Lil River has improving numbers and earned a career top figure when a narrow second in a similar affair in mid-April. The Hollendorfer-trained filly has a healthy work pattern since that outing and seems set for another forward move. With a clean break from the rail, she should have every chance from a pace-setting or pressing position. Time for Suzzie edged ‘River when they squared off two runs back but then was unplaced when overmatched in a starter optional claimer last month. At this extended sprint trip, the Hess-trained filly should have every chance to enjoy the same type of second flight stalking trip that resulted in her most recent win. Let’s try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics with slight preference on top to Bam Bams Lil River
RACE 4: Post 2:31 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 2-Give Me the Lute
Forecast: This maiden state-bred turf sprint came up fairly soft, with Give Me the Lute hoping for much better racing luck than he encountered in a similar affair last month. In that race, the Miller-trained gelding was going nicely while 3-wide pressing the pace to the turn but then was forced extremely wide by a lugging out rival and lost all chance. That he was able to re-rally and close the gap to be beaten a bit more than four lengths was to his credit and points him out as strictly the one to beat, especially with Prat riding him back and a bullet workout at San Luis Rey Downs since raced. Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 5: Post 3:03 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-King Abner; 3-El Huerfano; 4-For the Top
Forecast: This second-level optional allowance claimer has at least three solid contenders, requiring a spread in rolling exotic play. King Abner lands the rail, switches to Prat, and projects to be on or near the lead in his first start since April. The D’Amato-trained gelding will beat this field with a repeat of his triple-digit Beyer runner-up effort in the restricted Tiznow Stakes over this track and distance two runs back. El Huerfano, a recent $62,500 claim by Cerin (a powerful 28% with this angle), seeks his third straight win and likely will keep King Abner occupied for much of the way. They’re both tough as nails, but if they engage from the get-go the race could set up for a closer. Baffert’s Argentine invader For the Top has been training like he’s fit and ready for his first outing since finishing third in Argentina’s prestigious Group-1 Pellegrini in December, but this one mile distance might be a tad short for his liking. We’ll toss him in on a ticket tor two.
RACE 6: Post 3:33 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Peter’s Kitten; 7-Querelle; 8-Point Hope
Forecast: Querelle was set to pounce on the leaders when 17-1 in a similar spot in late April but was shut off along the rail at the furlong pole and lost all chance. She switches to Victor Espinoza, shows a sharp five furlong workout since that outing, and with clear sailing today could pull off a surprise. Let’s put her on top but also include Peter’s Kitten, in good form for Sadler and retaining Prat, and Point Hope, with the two-sprints-and-stretch-out pattern that often produces a significant amount of improvement and a closing style that should work well at this one mile trip.
RACE 7: Post 4:03 PT. Grade: C
Use: 4-Kidmon; 9-Sir Eddie; 10-Senditlikechilly
Forecast: Sir Eddie surfaces for $16,000 and at this level the Blacker-trained gelding should be a major player, but is certainly not one to trust. He’s won once in 16 starts (with nine seconds and thirds), though that victory did come over this track and distance in early April. On pure numbers he’s a fit, and we’ll use him, but Senditlikechilly, a recent $12,500 Wallace claim, is the preferred top choice. The son of Kantharos should have a comfortable trip from his outside draw, and with a bullet recent workout for his new connections he should be primed for a top effort. Also worth tossing in is Kidmon, a disappointing third in the same race Senditlikechilly exits but switching to Talamo for new trained Knapp and capable of contending with his best effort.
RACE 8: Post 4:33 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Coil Me Home; 4-Smiling Angelo; 6-Desert Law
Forecast: Smiling Angelo is quite intriguing in this state-bred sprint stakes that appears to lack a lot of early speed. Although off the track since last August, the son of Smiling Tiger has worked like he’s fit and ready and shows a win his debut, so you know he can fire fresh. The D’Amato-trained colt will race without blinkers for the first time (always like that angle), and both of his career victories were accomplished under today’s rider, Talamo. Desert Law earned a giant speed figure when winning a tough allowance race last summer but then disappeared. The Gaines-trained gelding had a right to be a bit rusty when fourth in his recent comeback but should move forward today, especially with a bullet five furlong workout since raced. Bejarano knows him well and stays aboard. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with the main push going to Smiling Angelo.
RACE 9: Post 5:03 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 8-Dulverton Darling; 9-Sunriser; 11-Field Bet
Forecast: The finale is a messy maiden claimer over a mile on turf for older fillies and mares. Use as many as you can afford to. Dulverton Darling has hit the board in her only two career outings and may be ready to win. The Drysdale-trained filly does her best running late and with a little help up front could produce a winning late bid. Sunriser seems to be progressing as well; the daughter of City Zip earned a career top number when a respectable third in a tougher spot last May and should find this bunch well within her capabilities. Field Bet is drawn farther out than what we’d prefer, but the O’Neill-trained filly, fourth in the same race Sunriser exits, was on the lead under pressure in that race and may do better if patiently handled today.