The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
Sunday, May 12, 2019
Use: 3-Best Two Minutes; 4-Big Shanty
Forecast: The Sunday opener is a modest $12,500 extended sprint with two main contenders. Best Two Minutes drops to his lowest level ever following a solid runner-up effort when facing $25,000 foes and a repeat of that race today should be good enough, assuming he has at least one good one left. Big Shanty was claimed for $25,000 by Baltas in January and now is running for half that amount, not a healthy pattern, but on paper he’s the best of the speed and could get brave if he can shake loose early. Both should be used in rolling exotic play.
RACE 2: Post 1:29 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Kristi’s Copilot; 6-Crown the Kitten
Forecast: Kristi’s Copilot was just re-claimed by Yakteen and seems well-spotted for a good effort. However, he’s failed as the favorite in his last three starts and therefore isn’t one to trust. We’ll use him in rolling exotic play but also toss in Crown the Kitten, an in-form Phoenix invader adding blinkers but winless in 14 prior starts over the Santa Anita turf course. We’ll try to get by using just these two, but not with a high degree of confidence. Tread lightly here.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 3-Go Big Blue Nation
Forecast: The third race is a juvenile sprint for fillies and drew just five entrants. Go Big Blue Nation, a daughter of Animal Kingdom, has impressed in the morning for Bonde and should be primed for a major effort first crack out of the box. The barn doesn’t have great stats with debut runners, but this filly seems to be made of the right stuff. We’ll make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 4: Post 2:31 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Dannie Joe; 3-Sturdy One
Forecast: Sturdy One crushed a $12,500 field recently and today is protected in this starter’s allowance mile event by new trainer Holllendorfer. The veteran mare is unproven around two turns, but in her present form she should be able to get the trip. The same might be said for Dannie Joe, a lightly-raced daughter of Old Topper filly who is fresh from a nice score over seven furlongs in a $12,500 affair. Both are similar in the speed figure department, so whichever one can handle the extra distance best probably will win.
RACE 5: Post 3:03 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 6-Moonshine Annie; 8-Shylock Eddie
Forecast: Moonshine Annie and Shylock Eddie finished heads apart when second and third, respectively, in a similar state-bred first-level allowance turf sprint just two weeks ago and they meet again over five furlongs in a race that we suspect will be won by one or the other. ‘Annie always has preferred to finish second or third rather than win but with good racing luck may be able to produce the last run. ‘Eddie has a bit more tactical speed and may be able to get the jump on ‘Annie. Rather than split hairs, we’ll double the race in our rolling exotics.
RACE 6: Post 3:33 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 6-Wicken Fen; 7-Drink; 8-Victor’s Show
Forecast: Wicken Fen was beaten at even money in a similar maiden $30,000 claiming sprint but earned a decent figure in defeat, and with just two career starts probably will continue to improve with experience. The son of Twirling Candy gets an extra furlong to work with and should be within range throughout and have every chance. Drink tries a softer group today and has numbers that fit well at this level. He’s shown enough early speed to be prominent throughout against this group. Victor’s Show picks up Prat and projects to be a pace-presser outside. He won’t have to improve much to win. Preference on top goes to Wicken Fen but we’ll include all three in our rolling exotics.
RACE 7: Post 4:03 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Cordiality; 6-Fiery Lady; 9-Gypsy Blu
Forecast: Gypsy Blu takes the worst of the draw from post position nine but in her present form the daughter of Papa Clem maybe good enough to overcome it. A winner of her last three races down the Hillside course including the Irish O’Brien Stakes, the Glatt-trained mare acts like she’ll be able to cope with the two-turn trip but until she does you just don’t know. Fiery Lady stretches out again and is reunited with “win rider” Smith. She’s a perfect three-for-three at this two-turn mile distance but must once again face Gypsy Blue, behind whom she was fourth in the Irish O’ Brien. Cordiality was overmatched in the Royal Heroine S.-G2 but is back with state-bred foes today and can improve from her comfortable inside draw. She should be forwardly placed and have every chance.
RACE 8: Post 4:33 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Crackling Bread; 6-Heloise
Forecast: Heloise might have lost her best chance at the start with a slow break in a similar restricted (Nw-2) $12,5000 sprint over seven furlongs; today she shortens to six and figures tough if she leaves her with field. We’ll give her a slight edge on top over Crackling Bread, in good form with competitive speed figures though having to break from the rail. We’ll try to survive and advance using these two.
RACE 9: Post 5:03 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Unusual Stuff; 5-Y Not Sizzle; 10-Lucky Lately
Forecast: Lucky Lately had the misfortune of drawing the extreme outside post in this turf miler for older maiden fillies and mares, but the daughter of Midnight Lute should be quick enough to get over and clear the field. She was beaten a head under similar conditions last month while earning a career top speed figure and if she can run back to that race today she could be hard to catch. Y Not Sizzle, a close third in the same race ‘Lately just finished second in, has plenty of room for improvement in what is her third career start. Gryder stays aboard for Mullins. Unusual Stuff is a first-timer by the prolific turf sire Unusual Heat, and most of the Drysdale maidens run better than their moderate workout times might lead you to believe. She gets a break in the weights with bug boy Diaz taking the mount and is nicely drawn inside. Toss her in on a ticket or two.