Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Saturday, May 11, 2019

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.

A=Highest degree of confidence.  

B=Solid Play.  

C=Least preferred, or pass.  

X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.


Saturday, May 11, 2019


RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Our Romance; 4-Rosey Sky

Forecast: In her first two career starts Our Romance displayed plenty of zip but not a whole lot of stick.  Today she shortens to five furlongs, switches to grass, and may be too quick for these.  Rosey Sky shows a good series of workouts at Los Alamitos for a barn that does well with debut runners.  The daughter of Street Boss is late getting to the party (she’s a 4-year-old) but shows up protected, so we’ll assume she’s well-liked.  Laker Jet, from the hot O’Neill bred, has been training in anonymity at San Luis Rey Downs so she’s an “x” factor, but is bred for speed and also to like turf so we’ll toss her in on a ticket or two. 


​​RACE 2: Post 1:29 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-The Rule of King’s; 4-Senditlikechilly

Forecast: We’ll double the second race, a restricted (Nw-2) $30,000 claiming sprint.  The Rule of King’s drops to his lowest level ever and should have enough early zip to use the rail to his advantage.  On pure numbers he’s more than good enough to beat this field, but low profile connections make him a bit hard to trust, especially at a relatively short price. Senditlikechilly, was a recent protected winner in a maiden claimer in fast time for the level.  A repeat of that race today makes him dangerous.


​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 3-Curlin’s Journey; 4-Surface

Forecast:Surface was given a bit of an educational run in her debut when a close fifth without being knocked about and should be serious today in this nine furlong turf affair for maiden fillies and mares.  The barn has excellent stats with second-timer starters, so we’re expecting this daughter of Quality Road to step forward in a big way.  Espinoza riders her back.  Curlin’s Journey is a 10-race maiden and probably not one to count on, but she’s hit the board in each of her last four starts and figures in the fray once again.  We’ll include her in rolling exotic play as a saver. 


​​​RACE 4: Post 2:31 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 2-Time Is Now; 4-Always Forgiven

Forecast: Time Is Now flashed promise in a debut sprint two runs back but was never a factor after a rough start when stretching out on grass in his most recent outing.  Back on the main track today, the son of Tiznow retains Smith and should show his best stuff today for Mandella.  There’s value her at or near his morning line of 5/2 if you can get it.  Always Forgiven has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern for the Desormeaux brothers, and as a son of Blame is bred to improve with distance.  He’s the morning line favorite at 2-1, and we’ll use him on a ticket or two, but we much prefer Time Is Now on top.


​​RACE 5: Post 3:03 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Causeforcommotion; 4-Lynne’s Legacy

Forecast: Causeforcommotion was a bit rusty when third in a recent conditioned allowance turf miler in her first start since June but should be much fitter and tighter today stretching out to the marathon trip that she’s always preferred.  First or second in seven of 12 career starts over the Santa Anita turf course, the Kruljac-trained mare is reunited with “win rider” Franco, shows a bullet training track drill since raced, and will likely to draft into a comfortable pace-stalking trip in a race that figures to be slowly run early.  Lynne’s Legacy is winless in three starts this year but is rounding to form following a willing third in the Santa Ana S.-G3 that earned her a career top speed figure.  We’re not sure she really wants to run a 12-furlongs, though.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play, but we’ll have extra tickets keying Causeforcommotion on top.


​​RACE 6: Post 3:33 PT. Grade: X

Single: 3-Ce Ce

Forecast:Ce Ce was very impressive winning her debut with a powerful 89 Beyer speed figure and nothing more will be needed for her to score right back in this entry-level allowance affair for fillies and mares.  She has the proper style for this extended sprint trip, two easy drills since raced, and retains Espinoza.  At 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, the daughter of Elusive Quality fills the bill as a short-price rolling exotic single.


RACE 7: Post 4:03 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Acclimate; 4-North County Guy; 5-Erotic; 8-Foray

Forecast: This starter’s allowance turf miler is a challenging affair that requires a significant spread in rolling exotic play.  We’ll go four-deep but best advice is to use as many as you can afford to.  Acclimate is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from his rail draw and projects to settle into the second flight and then have every chance from the quarter pole home.  Two of his three career wins have been accomplished over this course and distance, so we’re expecting the D’Amato-trained gelding to be super live at 5-1 on the morning line.  Foray got loose on the lead and crushed a moderate mid-level claiming field recently while earning a number that makes him a fit in this league, assuming he can secure the same kind of trip.  If he can, he’ll be dangerous.  North County Guy ran well under these conditions last time out when second, beaten just a half-length, and a similar effort today puts him in the hunt once again.  We suspect he might be more effective sprinting, but he’s a contender any way you slice it.  Erotic rallied wide off slow splits to win a restricted (Nw-2) $40,000 claimer in clever style last month and could be dangerous right back with Pratt staying aboard. There should be enough pace in here to compliment in late-running style, so at 5-1 on the morning line he’s a “must use.”


​​RACE 8: Post 4:33 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 2-Desert Law; 3-Calexman

Forecast: Calexman catches a favorable pace scenario in this second-level allowance extended sprint and seems capable of taking full advantage of a field without his kind of early speed.  Third to Ax Man and Edwards Going Left in a highly-rated productive race last time out, the Cerin-trained colt could get brave against this group.  Desert Law earned a career top figure when winning a similar affair last June before being stopped on.  The work tab should have him fit enough for a big effort, so if he returns as well as he left the Gaines-trained gelding could make a serious run for it from off the pace.  Both should be used in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Calexman. 


RACE 9: Post 5:03 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Music to My Ears; 5-Rayray; 8-Gate Speed

Forecast: Rayray brought $400,000 at the 2018 OBS April sale when breezing a furlong in 10 seconds flat and finally makes it to the post more than a year later after a solid series of drills for Glatt.  He’s certainly bred for grass (City Zip) and lands Prat, so he’s probably as good as any in a fairly wide open maiden special weight affair for 3-year-olds.  Music to My Ears was a beaten choice in his only start as a 2-year-old last summer at Del Mar but returns for Koriner with a healthy if unspectacular series of workouts and could easily be a better type this time around.  Interestingly, the son of Goldencents also brought 400k at the same sale that Rayray was purchased.  Gate Speed, from the Glatt barn, blew out in 47 3/5 for a half mile (fastest of 58 for the distance) last week, so the gelded son of Brilliant Speed certainly appears to have some talent.  However, the Glatt stable is working on a zero-for-27 streak with first-timers.  Toss him in as a saver. 


Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Saturday, May 11, 2019

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