The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
Sunday, May 26, 2019
Use: 4-Diamond Blitz; 5-Little No Way
Forecast: Little No Way drops to his lowest level ever and adds blinkers for the first time in this restricted (Nw-2) $25,000 claimer over a mile on turf. The son of Discreet Cat also picks up Prat and has recent numbers that are better than par for this level. The Miller-trained gelding seems the solid choice. Diamond Blitz has a prior win over this course and distance and should improve in this return to the sod. He likes the front end, so we’re expecting gate-to-wire tactics to be employed. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press with Little No Way on top.
RACE 2: Post 1:29 PT. Grade: X
Use: 3-Cat’s Desire; 5-Beyond Pleasure
Forecast: Beyond Pleasure is listed as the logical 6/5 morning line favorite and won’t offer any real wagering value at that price. The Richard Baltas-trained filly will run with blinkers for the first time while returning to the main track, and if she can duplicate her turf numbers against this much softer group, she should be home free. Cat’s Desire might be worth using as a back-up; she gets a break in the weights, stretches out and should be close up throughout and have every chance to at least hit the board.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C
Use: 4-Outlaw; 7-Conquest Smartee; 10-Pointed
Forecast: This inscrutable maiden claiming turf miler requires a considerable spread in rolling exotic play; best advice is to go as deep as your budget allows. Pointed may be as good as any despite the fact that he’s a 17-race maiden, has low profile connections, and certainly is not one to trust. However, he does drop into the maiden $50,000 ranks for the first time so at this level he may have finally found his friends. His recent speed figure, actually, aren’t too bad. Conquest Smartee exits a series of sprints and should find himself within range throughout and have every chance. Though he’s had 11 chances without winning, the son of Smart Strike has hit the board in seven of eight career starts over the Santa Anita turf course. Outlaw has the distinction of crossing the wire first in his last start, only to be disqualified for drifting out in the stretch. Today, he moves up in class from the maiden $25,000 ranks in a sign of confidence by Miyadi, returns to turf, and picks up Bejarano, so at 8-1 on the morning line he probably should be included somewhere in your exotics.
RACE 4: Post 2:31 PT. Grade: B
Use: 6-Go Big Blue Nation; 7-Golden Star Lady
Forecast: Golden Star Lady doesn’t really have a whole lot to beat in this maiden sprint for juvenile fillies and the daughter of Candy Ride, a $300,000 Ocala Sale purchase two months ago, gets Prat and a comfortable outside draw. She’s worked well enough to win at first asking. Go Big Blue Nation showed some ability when second in her debut earlier this month, but the race was quite slow and the number weak. She certainly has a right to improve with the addition of blinkers, we’ll include her on a ticket or two as a saver.
RACE 5: Post 3:03 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Tapwater; 5-Out of Balance; 6-Flower Point
Forecast: Tapwater won her only previous start on grass last fall at December and should greatly appreciate the return to the lawn. Two recent bullet six furlong workouts has the Mandella-trained daughter of Tapit right on edge, so we’ll give her the edge on top in a race that has several possibilities. Flower Point scored nicely at first asking from off the pace in a five-furlong turf sprint, and although this first-level allowance affair poses a more difficult task today’s two-turn mile trip should be well within her range. The daughter of Point of Entry loses Prat (who opts for Tapwater) but picks up Espinoza, one of Sadler’s go-to riders. Out of Balance shortens up a furlong, switches to Talamo, and with only slight improvement can be a major player.
RACE 6: Post 3:33 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 3-Sneaking Out
Forecast: Sneaking Out had her number taken down for causing interference in the stretch in the Angel Flight Stakes but if she can maintain a straight course today in her first start around two-turns the Hollendorfer-trained filly will be very difficult to deny. She’s back with “win rider” Van Dyke and projects to be the controlling speed, so at 2-1 on the morning line (and likely to go lower) she’s a strong rolling exotic single.
RACE 7: Post 4:03 PT. Grade: X
Use: 2-S Y Sky; 8-Belvoir Bay
Forecast: Belvoir Bay ran huge in Dubai when finishing second just ahead of two-time Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint winner Stormy Liberal in the Al Quoz Sprint-G1, and anything close to that type of effort today makes her almost impossible to defeat. Her previous outing, a romping win over this course and distance in the Wishing Well Stakes, was outstanding as well. The Miller-trained mare is 9/5 on the morning line but you’d have to think she’ll go considerably lower than that. S Y Sky responded to rating tactics in her impressive stakes win up north and if similar strategy is employed here she can complete the exacta.
RACE 8: Post 4:33 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 4-Tough But Nice
Forecast: Tough But Nice looks like the quickest of the quick and seems capable of taking this field gate to wire despite the class hike from starters $16,000 to starter’s $50,000. The veteran Good Journey gelding has his issues but remains protected by Palma, so he must be holding his edge. At 5/2 on the morning line in a six-runner field he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 9: Post 5:03 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Loaded Joe; 8-Delta Form
Forecast: We’ll double the finale, a state-bred maiden turf miler. Delta Form finished a close fourth in a productive race in his debut sprint earlier this month, adds blinkers and Lasix, switches to Prat, and seems likely to improve with experience and distance. The son of Exchange Rate has upside most of the others don’t, so we’ll put him on top. Loaded Joe, also a second-time starter with some promise, flashed speed before staying on well to finish third in a dirt sprint last month and is another that should be more comfortable under these conditions. Van Dyke stays aboard for Gaines and likely will be on or near the lead throughout from the rail.