Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Friday, Feb. 15, 2019

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.


Friday, February 15, 2019


RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: X

Use: 4-Gold Arrow; 5-Scattering Mink

Forecast: Gold Arrow and Scattering Mink caught the eye when finishing two-three behind Lady Mamba in their debuts in a strong maiden special weight sprint last month and both are stretching out today to a distance they should enjoy.  They’re hard to separate – both are beautifully bred and should get nothing but better with experience – but in a perfect world both would have another sprint under their belt before stretching out.  Against this group it might not matter.  We’ll double the race in rolling exotic play while otherwise sitting it out.


​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: X

Single: 1-Contagion

Forecast: With the off-the-program scratching of Friday’s At Shady, the second race should belong to Contagion, a reasonable third in his debut vs similar last month and likely to produce a forward move for new trainer Knapp (good stats with the first-off-the-claim angle).  In a four-runner field, there’s not much we can do here.


​​RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Madaket Sunset; 3-Foxtail; 7-Trust Fund Kitty

Forecast: ​This race has been taken off the turf.  Madaket Sunset and Foxtail would be the ones to beat if this race remained on grass, but they’re question marks on the main track.  Trust Fund Kitty isn’t as fast on numbers as those two, but she exits the best race and has shown the ability to handle dirt, so you have to use her.  Tread lightly here.


​​​RACE 4: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Sweetener; 5-Factorize

Forecast: Sweetener is improving with each outing for Mullins and if she can avoid trouble from the rail the Cal-bred daughter of Elusive Warning could earn her diploma from this modest band of bottom-rung older maiden claiming fillies and mares.  Factorize represents stranger danger. The Miller-trained filly has been away since August of 2017 but returns in a very soft spot, will race without blinkers, gets a significant weight break from bug boy Diaz, and goes for a barn that has superb stats with comebackers.


​​RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Lil Respect; 4-Enlisting

Forecast: This race has been switched to the main track.  Enlisting shows up in a claimer for the first time after a couple of runs facing much stronger straight maiden foes.  The switch to Prat is positive factor and there’s no reason she shouldn’t handle the main track after trying turf in her first two outings.  Lil Respect was a non-factor in a maiden special weight sprint down the hill in her only outing but could easily find this group within her abilities.  This mile trip should be to her liking, as well.


​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-R Cha Cha; 5-Conqueror

Forecast:Beantown Boys, a major contender, has been scratched off the program, so that brings us to Conqueror, a winner for fun of a $20,000 miler last month and moving up a notch today.  He’s just as effective sprinting as routing when he’s on his game.  R Cha Cha crushed a similar $25,000 field over a wet fast track that probably moved him up last time out and projects to be the controlling speed once again.  These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play.


RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 4-Judicial; 6-Donut Girl

 Forecast: This race originally was scheduled for the Hillside course.  Donut Girl has been away since last August, but she can run well fresh (she won her debut) and the Palma barn has excellent stats with layoff runners.  Effective on any surface, the daughter of Smiling Tiger shows a relatively brief work tab, but she lands Prat, so we’ll assume she’s ready.  Judicial broke her maiden on this main track last year so the change to dirt won’t be a bother.  The daughter of Tribal Rule should be prominent throughout and have every chance.


​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 7-Banze No Oeste

Forecast: Banze No Oeste ran a winning race when second in a fast, highly-rated affair over this track and distance last month and nothing more will be needed to beat this $8,000 group of older horses.  Fuentes won on him in December and fits him nicely.  The concern is that the veteran gelding has failed to hit the board in three prior off-track outings, but to be truthful at this writing we’re not really sure what the track condition will be.  For now, we’ll use him as a rolling exotic single.



Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Friday, Feb. 15, 2019

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