The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
Thursday, February 14, 2019
RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Molaf; 6-Aced
Forecast: Off the turf today, track sealed/sloppy/wet fast, check for late scratches. Aced is a first-time maiden claimer with the route-to-sprint angle and previous figures that are good enough to win at this level. Molaf should handle the wet track and may be a late threat while getting a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Figueroa.
RACE 2: Post 1:03 PT. Grade: C
Use: 2-Big Base; 5-Awesome Amanda; 6-Whata Flirt
Forecast: Similar to the opener, we’ll spread in rolling exotic play while otherwise passing the race. Big Base was off slowly when favored vs. similar last time out and then closed a gap without really threatening. Rosario stays aboard, so with a better break the Hollendorfer-trained filly could make amends at an extended sprint distance she should like. Awesome Amanda is back with fillies today in her second start off a layoff and should produce a forward move. Her pedigree says she’ll like the wet stuff. Whata Flirt in an 11-race maiden with three straight second place finishes by a combined half-length. The evidence suggests she lacks a winning punch, but from her outside draw she’s sure to inherit a perfect pace-stalking trip.
RACE 3: Post 1:35 PT. Grade: X
Single: 5-Platinum Equity
Forecast: Platinum Equity seeks his third straight victory after winning over a similar sloppy track two weeks ago with a number that will beat this field if repeated. He’s 8/5 on the morning line (but likely to go lower) and is capable of winning on the lead or from a stalking position, so Fuentes can play it by ear if Little Scotty is committed, as expected, to the front end. We’ll make him a no-value rolling exotic single.
RACE 4: Post 2:07 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Sharp Holiday; 4-Lea’s Reward; 8-Duranga
Forecast: Anything goes is this $8,000 claiming miler for fillies and mare. Let’s try to survive and advance going three-deep. Duranga probably is most comfortable as a late-running sprinter but we love her pedigree for an off-track and she could produce the last run if the surface moves her up. She’s a trier. Sharp Holiday is stretching out again after a series of sprints and won nicely going short over a sloppy track at Los Alamitos two runs back. She could get brave on the front end. Lea’s Reward adds blinkers for the first time and gets in relatively light. She’s won two-turning in the past with a number that is better than par for this level.
RACE 5: Post 2:39 PT. Grade: B
Forecast: With the late scratching of Goodtingscomeinpink, Meritocracy inherits the role as a single. She has rising numbers and is a strong fit despite moving up from the open maiden claiming $20,000 ranks to this state-bred maiden claiming $50,000 affair. She’ll be running on late.
RACE 6: Post 3:13 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Allaboutaction; 7-Annie’s Candy; 9-Distinctive B
Forecast: Distinctive B participated in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint in November, but today drops into a $40,000 optional claimer, a realistic level for the 8-year-old gelding. This is his league, and from his outside draw the Miller-trained gelding should be able to dictate his trip. Allaboutaction is a tough-as-nails sprinter coming off a game win at this level. This will be his 30th career start, but his first over a wet track, so we’ll see how he handles it. The rail probably does him no favors. Bay area shipper Annie’s Candy, first or second in 16 of 33 career starts, is another trying an off track for the first time. He returns to his winning level for Hollendorfer and lands Rosario, so you have to use him.
RACE 7: Post 3:45 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Rather Nosy; 7-Data Storm Kitty
Forecast: Data Storm Kitty shows up in a claimer for the first time while returning to the main track and should greatly appreciate the class relief and the surface switch. It’s hard to say how she’ll handle the wet track but the pedigree okay’s it. Rather Nosy, first-off-the-claim for Carava following a maiden claiming win here last month, retains Rosario and probably can produce a forward move, but based strictly on speed figures she’ll have to. We’ll use her on a ticket or two, but the main push goes to Data Storm Kitty.
RACE 8: Post 4:17 PT. Grade: X
Single: 6-Stretford End
Forecast: Unless there’s a good thing amongst the first-timers, Stretford End should finally earn his diploma today, though at 8/5 on the morning line he won’t be offering any value, and as an odds-on beaten choice in his last pair the Callaghan-trained colt hardly is one to trust, anyway. This is a race that is best left alone. Miller has three first-timers in the field, all of whom have been training at San Luis Rey Downs, so who knows?