Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Friday, October 5, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.


Friday, October 5, 2018

​RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Forthenineteen; 7-Miz Tianjin

Forecast: Bottom-rung sprinting fillies and mares kick off the Friday program with Miz Tianjin plummeting from $20,000 to $6,250 after being a voided claim in her last start at Del Mar in mid-August.  If she has one good one left she’ll probably win, but at 9/5 on the morning line there’s very little value to be found.  Forthenineteen returns to her winning level for Vallejo and has won three races over the Santa Anita main track.  She’s also 4-for-5 at this abbreviated sprint distance and while quick enough to make the lead she’s capable of stalking and pouncing if the race flow dictates.  We’ll use both in or rolling exotics and then press a bit keying Forthenineteen on top.


​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B

Use:  1-She Be Striking; 2-Stradella Road

Forecast: This Hillside turf sprint for older maiden fillies and mares should boil down to She Be Striking and Stradella Road, with the Richard Mandella-trained ‘Striking rating a slight edge on top.  A fast-finishing second over five furlongs in her debut at Del Mar, she should produce a significant forward move with that effort under her belt and has the closing style that usually works well over this downhill trip.  Stradella Road, in the money in her last three with rising speed figures, is considerably faster on pure numbers than her main rival but may have a bit less upside.  In her second start off a layoff for Gary Stute, she should be prominent throughout and have every chance.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play.


​​RACE 3: Post 2:01 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Imperial Creed; 5-Spicy Curry

Forecast:Imperial Creed shows up in a maiden claimer for the first time and switches to dirt, and she’s certainly bred to prefer the main track more than grass, so we’re expecting the daughter of Jimmy Creed to make the most of what looks like an ideal opportunity.  The Mike McCarthy-trained filly may have a bit more tactical speed than she was allowed to show in her first two starts and projects to draft into a comfortable second flight position.  Spicy Curry stretches out for the first time and has the pedigree to handle the extra ground.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see her employ gate-to-wire tactics, so at 8-1 on the morning line we’ll toss her in as well.


​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:33 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-London Hotel; 3-Desired Edge; 4-Z Z Tiger

Forecast:  Desired Edge flashed good speed before fading when facing much tougher straight maiden state-bred rivals in her first two career starts at Del Mar but projects to stick much better against this group, so let’s put her on top and hope to get close to her morning line of 7/2.  The Mullins-trained filly retains Baze, sports a recent healthy work tab, and should show her best stuff today.  London Hotel hasn’t shown any early speed in two career outings, but she can finish a bit and seems the most dangerous off the off-the-pace types, especially in a race in which the committed speed might be suspect.  She’s certainly a fit on numbers.  Z Z Tiger looks on paper to be the quickest of the quick but has yet to show any desire to finish under pressure.  The eight-race maiden has hit the board in three of her last four starts and probably will get at least a piece of it again today.


​RACE 5: Post 3:05 PT. Grade: B

Use:  3-Cimple Man; 4-Secreto Primero; 8-Rapid Red

Forecast: All three of his wins have been accomplished over the Santa Anita turf course, so Cimple Man should fire his best shot in this $32,000 claiming turf miler.  He’s most effective when held up early and allowed to run late and should get that type of ride with the switch to Van Dyke.  Secreto Primero, a winner of two of his last three and now in the Hess barn following a claim for $25,000 last month at Del Mar, looms the one to fear most.  There’s very little between the top two in a race that might be decided by the best trip.  For price players, you may want to consider Rapid Red on a saver ticket.  He’s a first-off-the-claim for O’Neill, adds blinkers, switches to Bejarano, and has won three of nine career starts on grass.  This will be his first try over the local lawn.


​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:38 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Haylord; 5-Platinum Equity

Forecast: This restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claiming miler doesn’t have a whole lot in it, so let’s put the class-dropping Platinum Equity on top, though at 7/5 on the morning line there’s little to be gained.  The Baltas-trained gelding finished a decent second sprinting in his only prior start over the Arcadia main track and his recent form based on numbers may be a bit better that it looks on paper.  The switch to Delgadillo is a positive factor; he rides a lot of live runners for this stable.  Haylord has a prior win over this track and could be the controlling speed.  It’s possible he wasn’t crazy about the deep Del Mar main track and could stick better here.


​​​RACE 7: Post 4:08 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 6-Shadow Sphinx; 8-Epical

Forecast: Epical was overmatched in the Del Mar Derby but isn’t today.  A repeat of his strong runner-up effort at this level two runs back puts him right there, and he did register a win in his debut over this course and distance earlier this year.  Shadow Sphinx earned a career top number when an excellent second in a similar spot at Del Mar last month.  The Baltas-trained gelding has been kept on edge with a series of smooth workouts at San Luis Rey Downs and should fire another big shot today.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play; based strictly on speed figures Shadow Sphinx deserves the edge on top so we’ll press with a few extra tickets keying him on top.


​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:38 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 5-Elevate; 6-Law Breaker

Forecast:  Elevate may be figuring things out and is a soft bottom-rung maiden claimer seems as good as any.  A closing second vs. similar at Del Mar in late August, the son of Artie Schiller could be especially tough if he finally leaves with his field, something he has yet to do in three career starts.  Law Breaker, a distant fifth sprinting in his debut at Del Mar, should benefit greatly from the outing and has the pedigree to improve considerably around two turns.  Conner stays aboard for Mullins, and while most of the others in this field have been thoroughly exposed, this gelding, with just one career outing, at least has a right to improve.




Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Friday, October 5, 2018

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