The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
Saturday, October 6, 2018
RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Any Questions; 2-Cashman; 5-Marckie’s Water
Forecast: The opener is a grass grab bag requiring a spread; we’ll try to get by using three but if you find the need to go deeper, go right ahead. Any Questions lost more ground than he was beaten by two races back and then was pitched a little too high when fourth in a Bay Area stakes race last time out. He’s back where he belongs today, lands the good rail, switches to Bejarano and has won over this course in the past. The Knapp-trained colt is worth a gamble at anywhere near his morning line of 15-1. Cashman produced strong Timeform ratings in Germany earlier this year and probably is better than his California debut in the contentious Del Mar Handicap gives him credit for. The class dropper in the Drysdale barn gets Lasix today and should fit very nicely at this level. Marcki’s Water may find a mile a bit too sharp for his liking, but he has winning connections and always has liked the Santa Anita lawn. He’ll be running on late and should at least get a piece of it.
RACE 2: Post 1:01 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Just Kathy; 8-Big Base
Forecast: This bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint for older fillies and mares looks treacherous with nothing in it to trust. We’ll double the race but not with any degree of confidence. Just Kathy drops drastically into a claimer, removes blinkers, and shortens to a sprint for the first time. All of it adds up to an improved performance; she’s still unclassified yet rates top billing by default. Big Base, second off the claim for Hollendorfer, has been a beaten favorite in her last two and clearly isn’t one to trust, but the Bay Area invader did hit the board in her most recent start and earned a number that makes her a fit down here. This is another race that you should go as deep as your budget will allow.
RACE 3: Post 1:33 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Perfect Dude; 5-Easy Shot; 6-Hayden’s Doc
Forecast: Any one of three look capable of winning this six-runner maiden claiming sprint for juveniles, so we’ll make it a pass race and try to survive and advance in rolling exotic play. Easy Shot chased infinitely tougher in his first two outings and though failing to hit the board earned strong speed figures (for this level) in both starts. Against this group, he’s likely to get very brave for the Desormeaux brothers. Perfect Due was well-backed in his debut but after flashing good early speed weakened when it counted and finished off the board. Significantly, Miller doesn’t drop him off this poor run, so the son of Majesticperfection probably deserves another chance. Prat stays aboard, another indicator that this colt is better than that first race shows. Miller’s other starter, Haydens Havoc, lands the cozy outside post and adds blinkers. He, too, had speed before fading in his first outing and probably can improve.
RACE 4: Post: 2:05 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Mae Never No; 5-Hartel
Forecast: Mae Never No is another one of those fast 2-year-old sprinters from the Wesley Ward barn and arrives fit and ready for this five-furlong turf dash following as runaway win over a wet track at Monmouth Park in August. This will be her first start on grass, but she’s bred to love it and appears to hold a decided pace edge over her male rivals. Hartel is back sprinting where he’s probably most effective and will be the one that Mae Never No will have to be concerned with in the final furlong. The winner most likely will be one or the other, so we’ll use both in rolling exotic play while pressing with Mae Never No on top.
RACE 5: Post 2:38 PT. Grade: X
Use: 2-Roy H; 5-Ransom the Moon
Forecast: So, whose turn is it today? Roy H, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint last year, and Ransom the Moon, who defeated his rival in the Bing Crosby Stakes at Del Mar in July, hook up again and are very difficult to separate. It’s a good race to watch, but not a good race to gamble on. We’ll use both in rolling exotic play but otherwise pass the race.
RACE 6: Post 3:10 PT. Grade: B
Use: 5-Miss Southern Miss; 7-Painting Colors; 8-Rubilinda
Forecast: Rubilinda can really turn it on late and should love the Hillside turf course. She makes her West Coast debut for Mandella and has looked fit and ready in the morning, so we’ll put her on top while recognizing that her closing style makes her susceptible to traffic trouble in turf sprints. With good racing luck she should be hard to contain late. Miss Southern Miss has the same late-charging style as Rubilinda and should fire a big shot fresh in her first outing since February. The daughter of More Than Ready has a prior win over this course and distance and with some help up front could be heard from in a big way in the final furlong. Painting Colors looked very sharp beating a slightly lesser field at Del Mar in late August and really won’t have to improve much to score right back. She has two previous wins over this tricky course and excellent tactical speed to keep her free of trouble. However, she loses Prat, who opts for Rubilinda.
RACE 7: Post 3:42 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Papa Turf; 4-EightyThree; 7-Monterey Shale; 8-Ketos
Forecast: This messy $10,000 claiming sprint has several possibilities. Monterey Shale returns to his winning level and reunited with “win” rider Baze. The Hard Spun gelding always has liked this track and should draft into a good pace-stalking position. He’s perfect in two career starts over this extended sprint trip. Ketos is dropping drastically in class after being claimed for $20,000 in his last start but he hails from a clever outfit and is more than good enough to win on his best day. Papa Turf is just 4-for-45 lifetime, but at least all four of his wins have been accomplished over the Santa Anita main track. He’s a fit on numbers and should be prominent throughout. Eighty Three certainly has credentials to win; the veteran gelding drops to his lowest level ever, is strong in the speed figure department and has a prior win over the Santa Anita main track. However, he’s been a beaten favorite in two of his last three starts and it appears he has lost his best form since departing the Hollendorfer barn. We’ll toss him in on a ticket or two as a saver.
RACE 8: Post 4:14 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Solid Wager; 8-Awesome Anywhere; 10-Microrithms
Forecast: This is another difficult affair offering several contenders at good prices. Awesome Anywhere, a sharp winner up north with a career top speed figure and with two prior scores and a second in three career starts over the Santa Anita main track, has a legitimate chance at 10-1 on the morning line. Now in the Hollendorfer barn, he has good tactical speed, gets a significant break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Espinoza, and should have every chance from a pace-stalking position. Is he good enough? We’ll find out. Microrithms won his debut like top prospect in June of last year but then failed at even money and disappeared. He returns off a 15-month layoff as a first-time gelding for Baffert and appears to be training well enough to be fit and ready, so you must include him. Solid Wager is a tough-as-nails veteran gelding with six previous wins over the local main track. He remains in sharp form for Miller and should be heard from in the final furlong.
RACE 9: Post 4:44 PT. Grade: B
Use: 8-Sharp Samurai; 9-Fly to Mars
Forecast: Sharp Samurai may have been a tad unlucky when third in the Del Mar Mile in his most recent outing in August but with a good trip today seems more than capable of getting back on the beam. A winner of four of five career starts over the Santa Anita turf course, the Glatt-trained gelding retains Stevens and is strictly the one to beat. Fly to Mars has really gotten good for Miller and is back with Prat, who was aboard when the California-bred gelding won a state-bred stakes with a triple-digit Beyer speed figure two runs back. He was most recently second in the same race Sharp Samurai exits but was disqualified and placed third for drifting in. This looks very much like a two-horse race, so we’ll use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Sharp Samurai slightly on top.
RACE 10: Post 5:14 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 9-Psychedelicat; 11-Zapana’s Game
Forecast: Psychedelicat is a first-time gelding for Hollendorfer in a weak, restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claimer and seems the logical top pick. A sharp winner over this track two runs back when breaking his maiden with a good number, the son of Tale of the Cat was a tad disappointing when unplaced vs. $25,000 foes in his most recent start, but these should be his friends. Zapana’s Game has some back numbers that make him dangerous; he’s dropping to his lowest level ever after a solid runner-up try at Los Alamitos last month and similar effort today makes him a major player. Let’s see if we can get past this race using just these two, with preference on top to Psychedelicat.
RACE 11: Post 5:44 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Colonial Creed; 3-Encanta
Forecast: Colonial Creed exits two very strong races and today shortens to a distance that she’s bred to improve at. The daughter of Jimmy Creed is fast on numbers and looks every bit the 8/5 that she’s listed on the morning line. Encanta flashed ability when third in her debut on the main track and has the pedigree to enjoy the switch to grass. If she produces a forward move – and Sadler has solid stats with second-timers – she could be the one to fear most. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with clear preference on top to Colonial Creed.