Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Friday, September 28, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.


Friday, September 28, 2018

​RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 5-Point Guard; 9-Original Intent; 10-Glorious Crown

Forecast: There are three main contenders in the seasonal opener, a restricted (nw-3) turf miler for 3-year-olds.  Glorious Crown is drawn poorly outside but is a first-off-the-claim for Morey (25%) and is eligible to produce a forward move.   The removal of blinkers indicates the likelihood that patient handling will be employed.  With switch to bug boy Espinoza and with two easy local workouts on his resume, the son of Crown of Thorns looks very well-meant.  Point Guard, second off a layoff for Baltas (solid stats with this angle), broke is maiden over this course and distance in April, switches to Van Dyke, and may be the most dangerous of the closers.  Original Intent drops to his lowest level ever, attracts Prat, and show steadily rising speed figures.  The Hollendorfer-trained gelding is another that does his best running from off the pace.  We’ll include all three in our rolling exotics with a very slight preference on top to Glorious Crown.


​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use:  3-Fast Cotton; 4-Getaloadofthis; 6-I Am the Danger

Forecast: Maiden ($40,000) claimers sprint five and one-half furlongs in the second half of the early daily double.  Fast Cotton is the quickest of the quick and showed improved stick in his most recent outing when finishing second while more than six clear of the rest, including a next-out winner.  Nothing more should be needed to beat this field.  Getaloadofthis had the misfortune of drawing the dreaded rail at Del Mar in his debut vs. straight maidens last month and was never a factor while clearly in too tough.  He drops into a seller – a logical spot – and seems likely to improve for a barn that hits with a very respectable 18% with this maneuver.  A series of four strong workouts since his debut is a positive sign and so is the switch to Prat.  I Am the Danger, first-off-the-claim for O’Neill (very strong 25% with this angle), finished a willing second in a slightly softer spot at Del Mar last month in his first start in a claimer.  We’ll toss him in as a saver while using extra tickets keying Fast Cotton.

​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Bobbie Lincoln; 5-Discatsonthesquare

Forecast: ​Discatsonthesquare is listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite in this restricted (nw-3) $16,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares.  Drawn comfortably outside while dropping to her lowest level ever, the Chew-trained mare fits on figures but is just 2-for-25 lifetime and has no tactical speed, so she’s hardly one to trust.  We’ll use her, but we’ll strongly prefer Bobbie Lincoln on top.  The Ellis-trained mare has the route-to-sprint angle that we like and switches from grass to dirt while dropping sharply in class.  At five years of age, the daughter of Tribal Rule will be making just her sixth career start, so she’s obviously had some issues, but her return to doing what she does best (sprinting on dirt) combined with two easy workouts since raced should have her primed for a major effort.


​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Movie Moment; 9-Tinabud

Forecast:  A typical grass grab bag for entry-level allowance 3-year-old fillies offers several possibilities in a race that requires either a spread, or a stand.  We’ll take a stand and try Movie Moment as a single.  A prior winner over the Santa Anita turf course, she had a difficult run when a closing but too-late sixth (beaten less than three lengths) in a similar affair at Del Mar two runs back, and then was a respectable though non-threatening seventh (beaten just over five lengths) in Del Mar Oaks-G1 while facing infinitely tougher competition.  Back where she belongs today, drawing the favorable rail, and switching to Stevens, the Sheriffs-trained daughter of Paynter has an excellent chance to spring a mild surprise with any kind of decent trip.  As a back-up, we’ll include Tinabud, a first-off-the-claim for Mullins and one of two in the race from this barn (the other is recent maiden winner K P Pergoliscious).  Tinabud closed willingly against the grain when third in a $50,000 seller at Del Mar and could create some noise with a forward move for a clever outfit.


​​RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B

Use:  3-After You; 5-Mr. Class; 7-Mo Dinero

Forecast: Maiden 2-year-olds entered to be claimed for $40,000 occupy the fifth race, a six- furlong sprint that looks wide open. Let’s try the intriguing class dropper After You at 6-1 on the morning line. The Drysdale-trained gelding was never in the hunt in his debut routing on grass but has since trained quite well with blinkers on and seems sure to improve big time under these conditions while facing much softer competition.   Mr. Class finished first in his debut when facing $30,000 claiming foes but was disqualified for interference at the head of the lane and placed second.  He’s up a notch today and isn’t particularly fast on numbers, but certainly has a right to produce a forward move for Desormeaux.  Mo Dinero finished far back in his debut behind stakes-quality Tale of the Union; obviously this is a different level of competition, so the Hollendorfer-trained son of Munnings deserves another chance, though we’d certainly want more than his morning line of 2-1.  We’ll go three-deep in our rolling exotics, and then press with extra tickets keying After You on top.


​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 3-Stormy Liberal; 8-Conquest Tsunami

Forecast: Miller holds the aces in the Eddie D. Stakes; either one of his two powerful entrants can win so we’ll double the race in rolling exotic play.  Conquest Tsunami, unbeaten in two starts over this tricky downhill course, picks up Prat after flunking a two-turn test last time out at Del Mar.  This is what he wants to do – sprint on turf – and we’re expecting the Stormy Atlantic gelding to return to his best form.  Stormy Liberal is a seven-time winner down the hill and remains in top form, having won his last two outings (both at Del Mar) while in both races earning triple-digit Beyer figures.    They’re tough separate, so we’ll use both in rolling exotic play while otherwise passing the race.


​​​RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Magnificent McCool; 5-Dueling

Forecast: Dueling has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern and a pedigree that suggests he’ll improve as the distances increase.  The son of Violence finished second to Game Winner last time out and before that chased home Rowayton; those two colts returned to finish one-two in the Del Mar Futurity so this clearly projects to be an infinitely softer spot.  Hollendorfer has healthy stats with stretch-out plays (19%) so at 9/5 on the morning line (and likely to go lower) the son of Violence is strictly the one to beat.  Magnificent McCool finished second while nine lengths clear of the others in a highly-rated maiden race at Los Alamitos earlier this month.  A repeat of that race today makes him the one to fear most.  Small ticket rolling exotic players can single Dueling; however, if you can afford to use Magnificent McCool on a back-up ticket you probably should consider it.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 3-Captivate; 7-Blame Joe; 9-Kershaw

Forecast:  Kershaw missed by a head at even money in a similar starter’s allowance sprint at Del Mar last month but probably cost himself the race with a sluggish start.  He’s fast on figures, shows a strong work tab since raced, and should fire his best shot.  Blame Joe, third behind Kershaw in that August 24 race when stuck on the deep rail, broke his maiden by more than 10 lengths over this track in June, retains Elliott, and looks to have the perfect stalking style for this extended sprint distance.  He’s a “must use” in the exotics at 4-1 on the morning line.  Captivate defeated Kershaw over this track in June and then finished a close fourth in the same race Kershaw and Blame Joe exit.  The Puype-trained gelding should get at least a piece of it again today and deserves some consideration in rolling exotic play as a back-up, at least.


 ​RACE 9: Post 5:00 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 2-Sweet Congrats; 4-Turing Machine; 6-Tandalicisou; 9-Super Good

Forecast: This downhill turf sprint for older maiden claiming fillies and mare is a messy affair requiring a spread in rolling exotic play.  We’ll go four deep and hope that’s enough to get us out of the race.  Turing Machine turns back to a sprint after finishing a solid runner-up when facing similar rivals over a mile at Del Mar last month.  She’s a 10-race maiden and perhaps not one to be counted on, but she adds blinkers for the first time, retains Prat, and has hit the board in two of three career sprints.  Super Good, away since February, tries sprinting for the first time in her four-race career while also for the first time dropping into a seller.  She can fire fresh (her best race came in her debut) and could be serious late factor off her best race.  Tandalicious ran well to be third in only prior start over this course and distance and she, too, will be trying maiden claimers for the first time.  Sweet Congrats shows a career top performance over the hillside course when beaten a neck against this level of competition in June.  At 12-1 on the morning line she’s worth including somewhere.



Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Friday, September 28, 2018

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