Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Saturday, October 27, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.


Saturday, October 27, 2018


RACE 1: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 2-Artie B Good

Forecast: Artie B Good exits an infinitely tougher race – he checked in sixth but wound up only two lengths behind third place finisher Brandothebartender, who returned to win the California Flag Stakes – so this drop into a 3-year-old only $50,000 claimer should allow the Billy Morey-trained sophomore to regain his winning form.  The son of Artie Schiller likes to settle and produce a late run, and with good racing luck should be along in time.  We’ll prefer him on top but also include on a ticket or two Raven Creek, a previous winner over the downhill turf course and likely to enjoy a soft pace-prompting trip outside.


​​RACE 2: Post 12:28 PT. Grade: B-

Use:  3-Spokane Eagle; 6-Gringo Star

Forecast: Spokane Eagle, claimed in his last pair and now in the Aguirre barn, doesn’t really have the healthiest of patterns but is good enough to beat this restricted (nw-3) $16,000 claiming field with his best effort.  He’s a two-time winner over the Santa Anita main track, a solid fit on speed figures, and switches to the barn’s go-to rider, Pereira.  Gringo Star, a $16,000 Puype claim, does his best when able to make the lead but may be reduced to a stalking position from his outside draw.  He’s another with numbers that make him dangerous and the Good Journey gelding usually gets at least a piece of it.  Preference on top goes to Spokane Eagle but we’ll include both in our rolling exotics.


​​RACE 3: Post 1:01 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Law Abidin Citizen; 5-Blackjackcat

Forecast:Law Abidin Citizen finished a respectable fourth in the Eddie D Stakes last month and returns to the three-other-than allowance ranks today while trying to regain his winning form.  Two of his three career victories have been accomplished over this course and distance, so we’re expecting the Glatt-trained gelding to fire his best shot.  Blackjackcat, Glatt’s other entrant, is the so-called “class” of the field, but he’s been away since May and might be prepping for longer.  The work tab appears light; perhaps he was entered just to make the race go for ‘Citizen.  We’ll include both in our rolling exotics and then press with Law Abidin Citizen on top.


​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:34 PT. Grade: B-

Single: 8-Mad Mike

Forecast:  Mad Mike rates top billing by default in this maiden $50,000 claiming sprint for state-bred juveniles.  The Machowsky-trained gelding flashed speed in straight maiden company in his only prior outing last summer before weakening; the winner of that race came back to capture a stakes event up north and the third-place finisher placed in two stakes at Del Mar.  There is little to embrace among the others; those that have raced don’t inspire and the first-timers appear lackluster.  Let’s go with ‘Mike as a straight play and rolling exotic single; it’s either him, or anybody.


​RACE 5: Post 2:07 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 1-Red Envelope

Forecast: Red Envelope is stretching out for the first time in this one-mile maiden turf affair and can be the controlling speed if his connections allow him to utilize his best weapon.  The Tribal Rule gelding isn’t bred to run much further than this, but if a sprinter is ever going to stay two-turns, it’ll be in his first attempt.  He’s reunited with Van Dyke, who got good run out of the Hendricks-trained juvenile in his first two starts, so we’ll make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.


​​​​RACE 6: Post 2:39 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 5-Sheer Flattery; 6-Giant Influence; 7-Jimmy Chila

Forecast: Jimmy Chila turns back to an extended sprint and returns to the main track in this starter’s allowance affair and should fire his best shot with Bejarano staying aboard.  His main track numbers indicate the switch in surface won’t be an issue, and at this shortened trip the Ellis-trained colt likely will be allowed to display his natural speed.  He’s no single, but we like him on top.  Giant Influence is another that has been routing of late and could improve shortening up.  Both of his career wins were accomplished over the Santa Anita main track and the Eurton-trained gelding is a solid in the speed figure department.  Look for this son of Giant’s Causeway to be running on late.  Sheer Flattery is another that will be doing his best work from off the pace.  He gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Figueroa and goes for a barn (O’Neill) that has superb stats with the first-off-the-claim angle.


​​​RACE 7: Post 3:10 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 2-Sheza Chattykat; 4-Zusha; 6-Conquest Flatterme; 8-Cute Knows Cute

Forecast: This wide-open entry-level allowance sprint for fillies and mares has several contenders and requires a spread in rolling exotic play.  Sheza Chattykat was recently transferred to the Powell barn (from Baltas) and has continued to impress in the morning.  She returns to the main track, is reunited with “win rider” Bejarano and should be prominent throughout and have every chance.  Her only lifetime win came over this main track.  Cute Knows Cute lands the good outside post and projects to enjoy a soft, pace-stalking trip outside.  Fresh from a sharp win vs. $25,000 claimers, the Miller-trained filly earned a number that makes her competitive at this level and it’s encouraging that her connections have decided to protect her today.  Conquest Flatterme should be part of the pace throughout and has back numbers that put her right there.  The Cerin-trained mare gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Espinoza and should stick better today.  Zusha broke her maiden over this track during the spring meeting and has the proper style for this seven-furlong distance.


​​​​​RACE 8: Post 3:40 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 5-Impression; 8-Cats Blame; 9-Acker

Forecast:  This is another spread race; we’ll go three-deep and hope that’s enough.  Impression is intriguing in his current form and most likely will employ gate-to-wire tactics.  The Morey-trained gelding continues to impress in the morning and is being raised to the $35,000 restricted (nw-3) level in a sign of confidence.  The son of Smart Strike has ye to win on grass, but he’s run well over this course in the past and could easily be a better type now.  Cats Blame, a $35,000 Knapp claim, ran well to be second in a similar spot down the hill a couple of weeks ago but is unproven around two-turns (though he’s bred for it).  He should be effective from off the pace.  Acker exits an open $50,000 event and clearly is tackling easier foes today. The Miller-trained son of Include has a pair of wins over the local lawn on his resume and is a strong fit on numbers off his best effort.


RACE 9: Post 4:10 PT.  Grade: X

Use: 5-Honeyfromthesouth; 11-Slewgoodtobetrue

Forecast: Two very promising maiden fillies square off at this abbreviated sprint distance, with the experienced Honeyfromthesouth getting the edge on top over the debuting Slewgoodtobetrue. Both have trained extremely well, but ‘South, with better-than-par speed figures in a pair of prior outings, appears to be the quicker of the two and the likely short priced favorite.  Slewgoodtobetrue draws the extreme outside post but should have enough speed to be within striking range and have her chance.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play; you may want to have extra tickets keying Honeyfromthesouth on top.


RACE 10: Post 4:40 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 4-Ms. Bad Behavior; 5-Toinette; 6-Tesora

Forecast: Toinette disappointed in the Belmont Park Oaks in early July but has been freshened since then and should return to top form for Drysdale.  Her recent workouts indicate the daughter of Scat Daddy is back on the beam and this turn back to a flat mile should be to her benefit.  Ms. Bad Behavior always gives her best, has never been worse than second in five starts over the local lawn, and should draft into a comfortable pace-stalking position.  Tesora, a stakes winner sprinting on turf at Belmont Park in early September, has won at this one-mile trip in the past and seems to be improving with each outing.  Firm ground should be to her liking.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics and then have a few extra tickets keying Toinette on top.


RACE 11: Post 5:10 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 4-Ketos; 8-St. Reno; 11-Lambo Luxx

Forecast: Modest claimers sprint six furlongs in the finale.  Lambo Luxx returns to his claim and win level and lands the good outside post, where he’ll enjoy clear sailing and likely settle into a comfortable stalking spot.  He’s an old pro and always gives his best.  Ketos was cut out to be better than an $8,000 claimer and clearly has his issues, dropping from $20,000 off the Aguirre claim to this low level.  He’ll be tough if he has one good one left.  St. Reno tackles tougher and will be required to travel an extra half furlong today following an all-out win vs. bottom-rung foes earlier this month.  You can toss him in on a ticket or two.





Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Saturday, October 27, 2018

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