The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
Sunday, February 24, 2019
RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B+
Forecast: Baltas has the 6/5 morning line favorite in here with Justin’s Quest, but we’re going to gamble on the “other” Baltas, Paladar. He’s a first-off-the-claim for a stable that hits with 32% with this angle, and there are two other positive factors to consider, the switch to Rosario and an improved tab that earned him a spot on our “Primed and Ready” list a couple of weeks back. It seems likely that gate-to-wire tactics will be employed, so if the son of Street Cry improves as much as we think he can, he could pull off the upset. At 6-1 on the morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 2: Post 1:40 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Nations Hope; 3-Mulzoff
Forecast: Mulzoff drops to his lowest level ever, adds blinkers, and catches a below par field of maiden $30,000 claimers in this main track miler for 3-year-olds. Stretching out for the first time, the Aguirre-trained gelding could make the lead, get brave, and keep on going, so at 7/2 on the morning line we’ll play him in the straight pool as well as in the rolling exotics. We’ll also toss in on a ticket or two Nations Hope, who flashed some signs of life when second over a wet track vs. softer last time out. Baze stays aboard for Carava, and from the rail the son of Alternation should enjoy a good pace-stalking, ground-saving trip.
RACE 3: Post 2:15 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Madaket Sunset; 3-Sheza Chattykat; 4-Gypsy Blu
Forecast: We’ll spread the third race, a starter’s allowance Hillside turf sprint for fillies and mares. Sheza Chattykat rates a slight edge on top in her first start since winning a restricted $40,000 claimer over this course and distance last month. She’s a first-off-the-claim for Puype and looks like the quickest of the quick. With just a bit of improvement for her new connections the daughter of Trappe Shot is a threat to win right back. Madaket Sunset returns to grass where she belongs and earned her diploma with a sharp win in a downhill dash in December. She’ll be a pace factor every step of the way. Gypsy Blu, a $20,000 Glatt claim out of a winning effort last month, is a bit shy in the speed figure department but really won’t have to improve too much to a fit in this league. With the switch to Rosario, she has to be included somewhere.
RACE 4: Post 2:50 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-No Wine Untasted; 6-Uno Trouble Maker
Forecast: No Wine Untasted was a sharp recent winner over a sloppy track but has performed well enough on fast ground to indicate she can be effective on any surface. She’s plenty quick and will certainly try to establish the lead from her rail post. So far in her 10-race career the Eric Kruljac-trained daughter of The Factor either wins or you can’t find her, so just in case she doesn’t fire we’ll also include Uno Trouble Maker in our rolling exotics. Drawn comfortably outside and fresh from a nice score for $25,000 last month, the Spawr-trained will need some improvement in the speed figure department, but with any kind of forward move she’ll be a major player.
RACE 5: Post 3:24 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Stylin Ocean; 6-Kitty Boom Boom; 7-Goodtingscominpink
Forecast: This maiden special weight turf miler for state-bred sophomore fillies looks fairly wide open and requires a spread in rolling exotic play. We’ll go three-deep and hope that’s enough. Kitty Boom Boom, a fair third sprinting on dirt in her debut, tries grass and two-turns today for Baltas, retains Smith, and may have more upside than the others, who are pretty much exposed. At 5-1 on the morning line, she’s worth a gamble in the straight pool. Stylin Ocean finished second earlier this month in a Hillside turf sprint at this level, and not much more will be needed to earn a diploma. Bug boy Espinoza should give her the patient ride she needs. Goodtingscominpink, first off the claim for Cerin, switches to Prat and is very likely to produce a forward move. In the money in both of her starts, the daughter of Clubhouse Ride is bred to run long and handle grass, so at 4-1 on the morning line she’s a “must use.”
RACE 6: Post 3:54 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-He Will; 4-Very Very Stella; 5-Avanti Bello
Forecast: He Will switches to Prat, drops into a realistic spot and gets top billing in this $40,000 claiming main track mile affair. He has plenty of back class and is a two-time winner over the Santa Anita main track, so we’ll put him on top. Very Very Stella, a recent $40,000 Bonde claim, is a veteran gelding with a winning punch and should be heard from in the final quarter mile. At 6-1 on the morning line he’s worth including in your rolling exotics. Avanti Bello, a $25,000 Cerin claim, is another with back class and should draft into a comfortable pace-stalking position under Prat. This barn has superb numbers with the first-off-the-claim angle, so you have toss him in.
RACE 7: Post 4:24 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Magic Musketier; 6-Kazan; 6-Cimple Man
Forecast: Here’s another spread race, this one on grass for $40,000 older claimers over a mile. Kazan shows up in a claimer for the first time and switches to Prat, so the Callaghan-trained gelding appears very well meant at this level. He has several recent speed figures that are good enough to win, so we’ll put him on top. Cimple Man has been through several barns of late and now resides in the Hendricks stable. The More Than Ready gelding has hit the board in 12 of 16 lifetime outings over the local turf course and always is dangerous when given the patient ride he prefers. Magic Musketier switches to Rosario, has several numbers that make him a fit at this level and should be a strong late threat. There’s a bit of value here at 6-1 on the morning line if you can get it.
RACE 8: Post 4:54 PT. Grade: X
Use: 1-Show It N Moe It; 3-S Y Sky
Forecast: S Y Sky and Show It N Moe It meet again after the former handled her rival quite convincingly when they last met in a state-bred allowance race here last month. The Sherlock-trained filly has been freshened since then and should fire her best shot. S Y Sky regained her winning form since that aforementioned race when she won the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Sprint down the hill in in late January. They’re tough to separate, so we’ll include both in our rolling exotics while otherwise sitting the race out.
RACE 9: Post 5:24 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Combat Zone; 2-Aussie Fox; 5-Holy Ghost
Forecast: Holy Ghost, away since May but training very well for his comeback for new trainer Cerin, makes his first start since being gelded and seems set to fire a huge shot. We’re expecting the son of Ghostzapper to flash improved tactical speed and have every chance from the top of the lane to wire. At 5-1 on the morning line, he’s worth playing in the straight pool in addition to the rolling exotics. We’ll also have space on our ticket for both Combat Zone and Aussie Fox. ‘Zone finished a close second under these conditions last month, retains Pedroza, lands the good rail, and won’t have to improve much to win. ‘Fox, first off a $50,000 claim by Mullins, removes blinkers (love that angle), switches to Rosario, and should produce a significant forward move that could very well land him in the winner’s circle.