Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Sunday, Jan. 13, 2019

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.


Sunday, January 13, 2019

​RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Frozen Money; 3-Carbon Zero; 7-Sea of Liberty

Forecast: Sea of Liberty is a first-off-the-claim for Sadler, and after missing by a neck in his debut at Del Mar in November he seems likely to produce a forward move with the addition of Lasix and the switch to Rosario.  His pedigree suggests he’ll enjoy the extra ground, so we’ll put him on top while also using Frozen Money and Carbon Zero in our rolling exotics.  ‘Money, in the frame in both of his career starts, should be close up throughout from the rail and gets a good chance to make amends for his recent failure at 80 cents on the dollar.  ‘Zero will be a late factor if he can get some help up front.


​​RACE 2: Post 1:03 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Easter Dream; 5-Duranga; 8-Princess Kendra

Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in the second race, a $12,500 extended claiming sprint for fillies and mares.  Duranga makes her first start since being transferred to the Miller barn, so improvement is likely.  Freshened since November, the daughter of Bellamy Road might be most effective when held up early and allowed to run late.  Easter Dream returns to her claim level for Hess, retains Bejarano, and is a perfect one-for-one at this seven-furlong distance.  She’ll be running on late.  Princess Kendra lands the cozy outside post in her first start since being claimed for $8,000 by Knapp and benefits from a major jockey switch to Prat.  Never worse than second in three starts at this distance, the veteran Benchmark mare always has preferred the Santa Anita main track, as six of her nine career victories have been accomplished in Arcadia.  Let’s put Duranga slightly on top but include all three in our rolling exotics.


​​RACE 3: Post 1:32 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Law Abidin Citizen; 3-Big Score; 5-Calculator

Forecast: ​ This three-other-than allowance turf miler drew seven starters and each has a right to run well.  We’ll use three in our rolling exotics while preferring Law Abidin Citizen on top.  The son of Twirling Candy stretches out after a series of strong sprints, plus he’s run well two turning in the past and projects to be the controlling speed.  Big Score can be dangerous if there’s enough pace up front to compliment his late-running style.  He hasn’t won since April of 2017, but he’s been in some very tough spots lately and should improve against this group.  Calculator switches to Van Dyke and has plenty of back class, though at age seven his best days may be behind him.


​​​RACE 4: Post 2:02 PT. Grade: X

Single: 4-Selcourt

Forecast: Selcourt was scratched yesterday for this easier spot, the Kalookan Queen Stakes for fillies and mares over six and one-half furlongs on the main track and will completely outclass this group with anything close to her best.  She wasn’t quite up to showing her best stuff off a long layoff in the BC Filly & Mare Sprint last November in Kentucky but won’t have that issue today.  She’s a no-value rolling exotic single.


​​RACE 5: Post 2:32 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-My Man Chuckles; 5-Cimple Man

Forecast: Cimple Man returns to sprinting and should be capable of regaining his winning form in this Hillside sprint for older $40,000 claimers.  A recent bullet workout at Los Alamitos indicates he’s right on edge for his first outing since November, and with patient handling from Desormeaux the son of More Than Ready seems capable of producing the last run.  My Man Chuckles hits hard at this level, runs his best for Prat, and is another that should be storming home in the final furlong.  We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Cimple Man on top.


​​RACE 6: Post 3:04 PT. Grade: B

Single: 5-Fortnite Dance

Forecast:Fortnite Dance drops to his lowest level ever in his first start as a gelding and catches an assignment that should be well within his capabilities.  He retains Van Dyke, is re-equipped with blinkers, and returns to dirt, arguably his preferred surface.  Clearly he has been a disappointment since being claimed for $80,000 last summer at Del Mar but in this league he should be hard to deny.  We wouldn’t take much less than his morning line of 9/5, but we can use him a short price rolling exotic single.


RACE 7: Post 3:34 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 6-Doc Curlin; 10-Trapalanda

Forecast: We’ll double the seventh race, a $6,250 sprint for older horses.  Trapalanda drops to the bottom and has the route-to-sprint angle for Mullins, one of our favorite maneuvers.  Drawn comfortably outside and with two prior wins over the Santa Anita main track, the son of Slew’s Tiznow gets a slight edge on top.  Doc Curlin won at this level two races back at Los Alamitos and a similar effort today puts him in the thick of it again.  The Hess-trained gelding knows how to win races and is reunited with “win rider” bug boy Espinoza.


​​RACE 8: Post 4:04 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Palladium; 4-Mayan Warrior

Forecast: Mayan Warrior stretches out again and ran very well at this trip (on grass) two runs back at Del Mar when a close runner-up.  He makes a major jockey switch to Rosario and could easily be the controlling speed if his connections so choose.  Palladium, freshened since November and exiting a productive race, returns to dirt and looks like the most dangerous of the closing types, especially with the switch to Prat.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying Mayan Warrior on top.


​​RACE 9: Post 4:34 PT. Grade: B

Use: 4-Posterize; 5-Grandpa Louie

Forecast:Posterize was a willing runner-up in his debut in a live race at Del Mar and seems likely to step forward.  Baze should have him within striking range throughout in this maiden state-bred sprint for juveniles.  Grandpa Louie adds blinkers after finishing second in his debut at Los Alamitos.  He was purchased privately after that race by clients of Peter Miller and is another that is very likely to improve.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play.


Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Sunday, Jan. 13, 2019

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