Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Thursday, Jan. 17, 2019

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.


Thursday, January 17, 2019


RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Chill; 3-Captivate

Forecast: Overnight rains likely will leave the main track wet fast or sealed/sloppy.  Proceed with caution.  Chill is a Woodbine invader making his first start for the Morey barn and sports a bullet workout over this main track last week.  His Canadian form is decent (first or second in 12 of 23 career starts) and with Rosario taking the call this son of Artie Schiller looks extremely well-meant.  Captivate finished first in a starter’s allowance affair here last September but was disqualified back to second for drifting in.  Away since then but with a healthy work tab for the Puype stable (excellent record with comebackers), the lightly-raced gelding clearly is the one to fear most.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play.


​​RACE 2: Post 1:32 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Scattering Mink; 2-Gold Arrow

Forecast: Scattering Mink has trained like a nice type for Mandella, and if she can avoid trouble from the rail the first-timer by Scat Daddy could easily win at first asking in this five-runner field.  Gold Arrow is another newcomer with credentials.  The daughter of Medaglia d’Oro lands Rosario, and the Hollendorfer-trained four-year-old shows a series of solid drills both at Los Alamitos and at Santa Anita.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Scattering Mink on top.


​​RACE 3: Post 2:03 PT. Grade: C

Use: 1-Silent Alarm; 5-Contagion; 8-Shake N Fries

Forecast: ​ There’s not much to work with in this maiden claiming $20,000 sprint for 3-year-olds; we’ll use three in our rolling exotics in a race we’ll otherwise pass.  Contagion makes his debut at the bottom after bringing $90,000 in the OBS sales in March.  Obviously his connections don’t hold him in high regard, but how good does he have to be?  Silent Alarm has some speed and against this group might get brave if he leaves cleanly from the rail.  Shake N Fries should be part of the pace, and on his best day could at least get a piece of it.  Feel free to spread this race if you can afford to go deeper.


​​​RACE 4: Post 2:32 PT. Grade: C

Use: All

Forecast: Each of the six runners in this $25,000 claiming sprint restricted to 4-year-old fillies exit the same race, an opening day affair won by Amers, who rallied from last to first in the final strides thanks to a pace meltdown.  They all finished in a heap, so who knows what will happen today, especially over a wet surface?  If there ever was a pass race, this is it.  Rolling exotic players might be best to use them all.


​​RACE 5: Post 3:02 PT. Grade: B

Single: 7-London Hotel

Forecast: London Hotel seems well-spotted in the fifth race, a restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claiming sprint for older fillies and mares.  The lightly-raced Tizbud filly graduated in mid- November at Del Mar while racing for a $20,000 tag and this is the logical spot to bring her back.  She’s solid on numbers and seems capable of tagging the speed with her late kick, assuming the wet track is kind to that style.  We’ll make her a straight play and rolling exotic single at or near her morning line of 5/2.


​​RACE 6: Post 3:32 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Rather Nosy; 7-Goodingscominpink

Forecast: ​Rather Nosy shows up in a claimer for the first time and certainly will appreciate this much softer assignment.  All three of her career outings have been on grass; today she tries a wet fast track but on pedigree the surface switch should agree with her.  But at 8/5 on the morning line she’s not going to offer much value.  Gootingscominpink is much slower on speed figures than Rather Nosy but she’s only had the one race (a second-place finish at Los Alamitos) so the daughter of Clubhouse Ride has plenty of room to improve.  We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two and both should be included in your rolling exotics.


RACE 7: Post 4:02 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Mucho Unusual; 3-Tiz a Master

Forecast: Mucho Unusual finished an excellent second in the Golden State Juvenile Fillies Stakes in early November and drops into a first-level allowance sprint for her sophomore debut while switching to Rosario.  She’s 6/5 on the morning line and on form looks it.  Tiz a Master is worth protecting with, at least a ticket or two.  She’s won her last pair in pleasing style with rising speed figures, and if she can produce another forward move she might make a race of it.


​​RACE 8: Post 4:32 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Spanish Bay; 9-Victor’s Show; 10-Pig Iron

Forecast: Spanish Bay was cut out to be top stakes horse (Tapit from Dubai Escapade) but has had his issues and clearly is being culled from the stable today while dropping into a maiden $20,000 claimer.  He’s a first-time Lasix user, so that, combined with big class drop, might be enough produce a win.  He’ll have to break cleanly from the rail, though.  Victor’s Show has a race at Los Alamitos two runs back that puts him in the hunt, while Pig Iron makes his first start since June in his first in a claimer and adds blinkers.  He could easily be better than shown, so at 12-1 on the morning we’ll include him on a ticket or two.



Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Thursday, Jan. 17, 2019

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