The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
Sunday, March 3, 2019
RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 6-Upper Room; 7-Taniko; 8-Oh Man
Forecast: We’re dealing with another wet track today, and more rain is forecast throughout the day. We’ll handicap as if all races will be taken off the turf. Check for late scratches, there will be many. We’ll go three-deep in the opener, a $16,000 claiming miler for older horses, while slightly preferring Taniko slightly on top. Away since August but with a steady work tab that should have him fit, he was a voided claim when last seen but is a perfect one-for-one over a wet surface after winning over this track and distance last year. The son of Gio Ponti seems capable of producing the last run under bug boy Figueroa. Oh Man, first off the claim for Lerner, stretches out after a career-top performance over seven furlongs and seems likely to employ gate-to-wire tactics again. Both of his career wins have been accomplished over the Santa Anita main track, though this will be his first outing in the wet stuff. Upper Room takes a nosedive in class and on numbers fits very nicely at this level. He’ll be doing his best work late.
RACE 2: Post 1:38 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-La Purissima; 5-Gamagine; 7-Miss Lady Ann
Forecast: This race originally was slated for turf. Gemagine faces infinitely tougher foes in straight maiden company in her first two outings, and although well-beaten in both earned numbers that make her a strong fit at this level. Miss Lady Ann moves up from the $20,000 level where she finished a willing second in her debut after a bit of a slow start and this raise in class can be taken as a sign of confidence. She’ll enjoy a nice stalking trip outside. La Purissina is a first-timer from the Sadler barn with okay works and Rosario. She won’t have to be a world beater to be competitive.
RACE 3: Post 2:12 PT. Grade: X
Single: 2-Lieutenant Dan
Forecast: Lieutenant Dan is back sprinting where he belongs and wins with a repeat of his runaway maiden win two races back at what should be a very short, unplayable price. The other main contender, Teacher’s Treasure, has been scratched.
RACE 4: Post 2:46 PT. Grade: B+
Forecast: This race may or may not be taken off the turf, but on either surface Twentytwentyvision is the pick. The veteran gelding got a confidence building win in a similar spot on grass on opening day and sports a solid, healthy work pattern since. Rosario should have him in an ideal stalking position and then go on when the time comes. However, at 2-1 on the morning line with the potential to go lower, there’s probably not a whole lot of value to be found.
RACE 5: Post 3:15 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-King Abner; 4-Edwards Going Left
Forecast: Edwards Going Left is perfect (1-for-1) on a wet track, loves the Santa Anita main oval and can get the mile, though he’s probably a tad more comfortable around one-turn. He was almost five lengths clear of the rest when second to Ax Man last time out and a similar effort today will be good enough. King Abner is better on the main track than he is on turf and is another that shows winning form on a wet surface. He has front-running type of speed but can stalk and pounce if the race flow dictates. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying Edwards Going Left on top.
RACE 6: Post 3:51 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Christy Jackson; 5-Sturdy One
Forecast: Sturdy One moves up a notch after crushing a $12,500 field by five lengths and not much more will be needed for a repeat score. First or second in 18 of 40 career starts, the veteran mare will have to show she can handle a wet surface but we’re going to guess that it won’t be a problem for her. Christy Jackson is worth including as a saver; she’s in excellent form for Miyadi, removes blinkers (like that angle), and gets a significant weight benefit with the switch to 10-pound bug Velez. She’s never run on a wet track, but her pedigree suggests she should love it.
RACE 7: Post 4:21 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Zatter; 5-Heck Yeah; 8-Distinctive B
Forecast: Distinctive B just won at this level and is back for more, with Rosario taking over for Prat. Since he just scored over a wet track, the Miller-trained gelding won’t be bothered by today’s surface. Heck Yeah ran like a short horse when fading in his comeback in the Cal Cup Sprint but has trained very well since and should produce a significant forward move today. Baffert’s other starter, Zatter, was eliminated at the break when stumbling badly in his first start in 15 months and probably deserves another chance, so we’ll include him as well.
RACE 8: Post 4:53 PT. Grade: B
Use: 6-Cool Bobby; 7-Kylemore
Forecast: Kylemore has rising speed figures for Baltas and a pedigree that suggests he’ll be able to cope with the wet surface. He’s likely to secure a good stalking position outside and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. Cool Bobby stretches out again and should be more comfortable with less pace pressure. He switches to Smith, and if he handles the wet track the Eurton-trained colt can at least hit the board. Let’s try to get by using just these two, and while he’s certainly capable of winning, the highly-disappointing Solomini has simply burned too much money to be trusted. If he beats us, he beats us.
RACE 9: Post 5:21 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-True Validity; 4-Out of Control; 8-Acadua Fleet
Forecast: We’ll spread the nightcap, a seven-furlong maiden claimer for 3-year-old fillies. True Validity, in the money in her last three, is overdue for a win and seems the logical top selection while dropping to her lowest level. The switch to Prat is another positive factor, so it won’t be surprising if she goes lower than her morning line of 5/2. Out of Control was claimed for $20,000 out of her troubled debut and could easily be better than the race shows for new trainer Knapp, especially with the presence of Rosario in the saddle. Acadia Fleet, drops, adds blinkers, gets a weight break with the switch to bug boy Figueroa, and makes her first start since being transferred to the Miller barn. At 6-1 on the morning line she has to be included.