Jeff Siegel’s Blog:  Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Sunday, October 21, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

SANTA ANITA

Sunday, October 21, 2018

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RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade:

Use: 4-Don’t Blame Judy; 5-Luminoso

Forecast: This five-runner entry-level allowance turf miler for fillies and mares doesn’t offer much to work with.  Luminoso was overmatched in the Remington Park Oaks last month, but she can act with this group and her best form has been accomplished over this turf course.  On pure numbers she’s close to a standout, though we’ll also include in rolling exotic play Don’t Blame Judy, a lightly-raced filly with a decent maiden win at Del Mar two runs back.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 1:01 PT. Grade: B-

Use:  2-Just Hit Play; 7-Mr. Class

Forecast: Just Hit Play, in the money in his last three and a distant second in a fast, highly-rated race for this level at Los Alamitos last month, looks the best of this modest group of maiden claiming juveniles.  He should be the controlling speed in a field lacking zip.  Mr. Class finished first in his debut but was disqualified and then went backwards when unplaced in a similar maiden claimer just eight days ago.  Drawn comfortably outside, the Desormeaux-trained colt should have every chance to repeat his promising first outing, so we’ll toss him as a saver or a back-up.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 1:33 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Sensible Thoughts; 5-Tequila Sunset

Forecast: ​ The third race offers another five-runner field, though this one has some depth to it.  Sensible Thoughts is a first-off-the-clam for Knapp, who’s had a pretty decent year, and this daughter of Street Sense returns to conventional dirt, her preferred surface.  She’s most effective when held up early and allowed to run late and if given that kind of ride from Bejarano she should be capable of producing the last run.  Tequila Sunset is a 10-race maiden without a particularly favorable running style – she’s a one-paced grinder – but she’s dropping from straight maiden to maiden claiming for the first time and has back numbers that put her right there.  We’ll try to get by using just these two - preference goes to Sensible Thoughts – but if you can afford to deeper or even buy the race, feel free to do so.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:05 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 3-Batiquitos; 9-Chasin Lucas

Forecast:  Batiquitos clearly is most effective sprinting on turf; all three of her career outings under these conditions have been excellent and her only start down the Hillside course resulted in a third-place finish when beaten a neck at this level earlier this year.  Pedroza stays aboard, knows her well, and should have her in an ideal pace-stalking position, ready to pounce when called up.  Chasin Lucas tries turf for the first time, and if she can duplicate her best dirt form over this tricky course she’ll be as strong factor throughout.  We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two; preference on top goes to Batiquitos.

 

​RACE 5: Post 2:37 PT. Grade: X

Use:  1-Street Class; 3-Magnificent McCool

Forecast: Street Class and Magnificent McCool both exit the same race won by Breeders’ Cup Juvenile-bound Dueling and they meet again in this five-runner maiden special weight middle distance main track event.  Street Class appears to have a bit more upside; he’s adding blinkers for the first time in his third career start, retains Prat, and should have every chance with a ground-saving, pace-forcing trip.  However, at 4/5 on the morning line he won’t be offering any value.  Magnificent McCool is re-equipped with blinkers, retains Bejarano and may try gate-to-wire tactics.  He’s the top figure horse based on his sharp runner-up effort at Los Alamitos two races back, but then finished more than three behind ‘Class when they met here last month.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:09 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Exultation; 5-Offshore; 7-Worthy Turk; 9-Spa Shackalacka

Forecast: This wide-open grass grab bag has several possibilities, so a spread strategy in rolling exotic play is neccesary.  Worthy Turk is fast on speed figures and improving with racing.  He has the route-to-sprint angle that always seems effective down the hill and with the switch to Van Dyke the son of Lemon Drop Kid looks capable of wearing down the leaders close home.  Spa Shakalacka is a first-time gelding for D’Amato and won his only career turf sprint in sharp fashion in New York.  He’s another shortening in trip and projects to be a strong pace factor throughout.  Exultation broke his maiden at Los Alamitos in game style with a nice number, and with another forward move today this lightly-raced son of Paynter could be dangerous on the raise.  Offshore is a first-off-the-claim for Baltas and switches to Prat, and just on those two angles probably is worth considering somewhere.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 3:41 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Seven Scents; 5-Savagery

Forecast: The Sunny Slope Stakes for 2-year-olds has two main contenders.  Seven Scents is strong on numbers, is dangerous at any distance, and should be within range throughout.  The rail post is a bit of a concern but if the Lewis-trained son of Goldencents can secure a good trip he’ll be tough to deny.  Savagery destroyed a soft maiden claiming field by 11 lengths at Del Mar after getting loose on the lead.  The number was good, but this is a tougher group and he’ll have to produce another forward move to win right back.  Seven Scents gets the edge on top and we’ll have a few extra keying him in rolling exotic play.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:13 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 7-K P’s Smokin; 8-Atrevida

Forecast:  This restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claiming miler for fillies and mares looks a bit treacherous; we’ll try to get by using just two, but you should go as deep as your budget allows.  Atrevida stretches out again, has won at this trip in the past and should find herself on or near the lead throughout.  K P’ Smokin, a $12,500 claim by Knapp earlier this month, broke her maiden by more than 10 lengths at this distance at Del Mar and earned a number good enough to beat this field.  She gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Figueroa and may offer some real value at or near her morning line of 6-1.

 

RACE 9: Post 4:45 PT.  Grade: B+

Single: 7-Erotic

 Forecast: Erotic has been away since last December but has trained better now than he ever has and returns as a first-time gelding for a barn that does extremely well with comebackers.  This will be the first sprint of his career, but the son of More Than Ready has the proper style for the course and should be a strong late factor under Prat.  At 12-1 on the morning line he offers considerable wagering value both in the straight pool and in rolling exotic play.

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Sunday, October 21, 2018

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