January 7, 2022
By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TPC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 individual
algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100 point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 2-Moody Jim; 1-Dubby Dubbie
Forecast: Since he’s been away since November of 2019, it’s anybody’s guess as to what shape Moody Jim (TOC=7-1; M:-5/2) is in but the now six-year-old first time gelding looked pretty good in a recent workout (see below) so with the presence of F. Prat in the saddle let’s assume the J. Mullins-trained ex-classer is fit enough to win in his first start for a claiming price. A winner over the local lawn as a 3-year-old, the son of Midshipman has back numbers that are good enough to beat this field, so let’s hope he can flash his old form and produce a winning late kick at or near his morning line of 5/2. Dubby Dubbie (TOC=9/2; ML=2-1) lands the rail and seems certain to employ gate-to-wire tactics. Clearly most effective when he’s able to establish the running, the J. Sadler-trained gelding knows how to win races (he’s eight-for-32), switches to Johnny V., and catches a favorable pace scenario. We’re expecting to see the son of Ice Box fire his best shot. We’ll prefer Moody Jim on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
Notable Workouts:
Moody Jim (December 16, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01h TT). Grade: B+
Easy solo training track breeze for J. Mullins, final three furlongs in :12 flat and :36.3, plenty left late, never asked. Been away since November of 2019 and once had some quality, seems in fairly good shape on the comeback trail as a first-time gelding and should be a live item first time back in the proper spot for a barn that has solid stats with layoff runners.
View Workout Video
Kazan (December 17, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.4h). Grade: B-
Broke off a couple of lengths in front of Nazuna (4f, :49.2h) and was head-and-head with that one through the lane, mild urging while perhaps a tad second best. Seems in okay shape, needs grass to show his best stuff.
View Workout Video
Best Chance (December 18, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.4h). Grade: B
Easy five furlong breeze while even but a tad the best with Dream Princess (same time) for J. Sadler, final half mile in :12 flat, :24.1 and :49.2, steady throughout with something left late. Might be able to perk up with a class drop.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 1-Starship Defiant; 4-Flat Out Joy
Forecast: Starship Defiant (TOC=8/5; ML=5/2) was a clever winner in a softer (nw-2) $12,500 main track miler 11 days ago and today shortens to seven furlongs while moving up in class while seeking a repeat score that looks well within her capabilities. With A. Cedillo committed to Flat Out Joy, trainer R. Hess, Jr. picks up F. Prat, who’ll likely try gate-to-wire tactics from her inside draw in a field without much early speed. Both of her career wins have been accomplished over the Santa Anita main track, so stick the daughter of Empire Way on top while also including on our ticket Flat Out Joy (TOC=2-1; ML=2-1). A one-paced grinder who usually prefers to run second or third (nine times) rather than win, the veteran mare was a beaten choice when a non-threatening third at this level at Del Mar in late November but has won over this track in the past and has hit the board in all three of here outings at this seven furlong trip.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 3: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 7-Cleopatra’s Strike; 9-Keystone Field
Forecast: This grass grab bag has nine entrants, and none can be tossed out with any degree of confidence. We’ll try to get by using just two, but the best advice is to include as many as your budget allows. Cleopatra’s Strike (TOC=4-1; M:=4-1) has won since who knows when, but the ex-classer actually is in pretty good form right now (in the frame in four of his last five starts) and drops to his lowest level ever. At age nine and with just four career wins, the son of Smart Strike certainly isn’t one to trust but on pure numbers he’s a solid fit so perhaps with the switch to K. Desormeaux he might be able to produce a winning late kick. Keystone Field TOC=6/5; M:=8/5)shows up in a seller for the first time and may have found his friends. The outside draw does him no favors but he’s another with speed figures that fit at this level and a repeat of his game win two runs back – when given a patient ride that probably brings out his best – should put him in the thick of things late.
Notable Workouts:
Family Biz (January 1, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:03.1h TT). Grade: B-
Slow and easy in training track breeze for J. Mullins, final three furlongs in :12.1 and :36.4 (may have gone a bit faster than given). Seems healthy and may improve, though her form since being claimed for $40,000 last summer at Del Mar has been dreadful.
View Workout Video
French Getaway (January 1, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:03.4h). Grade: C
Slow and easy to the top, then was ridden a bit through the lane but never really got much going, final half mile in :12.4, :25.2 and :51.1 for K. Mulhall. Nothing to get excited about.
View Workout Video
Builder (January 2, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.3h). Grade: C+
In company inside Cosmo (4f, :48.2h) and was second while about a length back at the wire despite being ridden some in the final furlong (workmate going easily), final half mile in :23.3 and :48.2 on our watches. Just an average work by veteran gelding in D. O’Neill barn.
View Workout Video
Keystone Field (December 20, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.4h). Grade: B-
Finished more than a length behind Dogtag (5f, 1:01.3h) for R. Mandella, splits of :12 flat, :23.4, :35.2 and 1:02 flat on our watches, not bad while mostly galloping through the lane. Seemed to handle the dirt okay so that could be an option down the road. Probably wants a class drop.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 4: Post: 2:05 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference: 2-Lil’s Big Shot; 4-For Love Not Money
Forecast: Lil’s Big Shot (TOC=10-1; ML=6-1) didn’t break sharply, was bounced around in tight quarters down the backstretch to lose valuable position, then finished with some interest without being knocked about and ran better the line shows when unplaced in her debut at Los Alamitos vs. maiden $50,000 foes last month. We’re expecting a much better performance today. The daughter of Mr. Big looked very sharp in a recent team drill (see below) and appears to have more than enough natural speed to outrun this bottom-rung group with a clean trip. She’s 6-1 on the morning line and is a gamble at or near that price. For Love Not Money (TOC=4/5; M:=5/2) should be included in your rolling exotics as well. Freshened since October when the wheels came off at 7/5 in race over a mile at this level, the daughter of Tiznow has looked fairly decent (see below) in recent a.m. activity and seems certain to be a better type this time around. The M. Glatt-trained filly earned a number three races back sprinting vs. maiden special weight company that puts her right there. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Lil’s Big Shot
Notable Workouts:
Lil’s Big Shot (January 2, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.4h). Grade: B
In blinkers, inside Really Big News (same time) for T. Yakteen while under a stout hold throughout and able to go faster if permitted, splits of :11.2, :23.2 and :48.4, better work than the final time might indicate. Didn’t get the best of runs when unplaced in her debut last month but we suspect she’ll produce a significant forward move with that bit of experience behind her. Eligible to surface in a very soft spot.
View Workout Video
For Love Not Money (December 10, Santa Anita, 4f, :50.1h). Grade: B-
Broke off about four lengths in front of Head Start (4f, :49.2h) and wound up slightly in front at the wire and then out to the seven furlong pole, never asked at any stage, splits of :12.3 and :37.4 to the wire before continuing out in :50.2 on our watches. Slow time but actually looked okay, bottom-rung maiden claimer certainly should be capable of improving last try.
View Workout Video
Golden Halo (December 19, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.4hg). Grade: C+
In blinkers, sluggish leaving the gate but then got going, wasn’t asked, and wound up even but best in half mile gate drill with Lemon Sushi (same time) for V. Brinkerhoff, splits of :25.1, :37.1 and :49.4, fair move. Blinkers may help a bit, but we’d like to see better gate quickness. Needs softest foes possible on this circuit.
View Workout Video
_____________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 5: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 2-Mesut; 1-Wipe the Slate
Forecast: Mesut (TOC=3/2; ML=2-1) hasn’t won in nearly three years but is superior on speed figured against this group so if he’s ever going to break the streak, this looks like an ideal spot to do it. The C. Gaines-trained gelding has two career wins – both of this turf course – and most recently finished a strong runner-up in a similar spot over this course and distance during the fall season. An unspectacular but solid and healthy recent work tab should have him fit and ready. Wipe the Slate (TOC=2-1; ML=5/2) was just claimed back by D. O’Neill out of a sharp winning race at five furlongs on grass at Del Mar that produced a career top speed figure. The son of Nyquist is protected today in a sign of confidence and recent workouts (see below) tell us he’s ready to produce another forward move. From the rail, he should be on or near the lead throughout.
Notable Workouts:
Wipe the Slate (January 2, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h). Grade: B
Never rally asked at any stage, splits of :12.1, :23.4, :35.3 and 1:00.3 on our watches, steady and even while holding his form. Was reclaimed by D. O’Neill out winning effort for $50,000 at Del Mar in mid-November; has starter’s allowance conditions.
View Workout Video
Quick Finish (December 19, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00h). Grade: B+
Broke off slightly in front of Hit the Road (same time) for D. Blacker and maintained the advantage to the end without being asked, quite nice with splits of :12.1, :24 flat, :35.3 and 1:00.1 on our watches, something left late (workmate had to be asked a bit). Solid move, looks good, but it’s been a long time since he won. Workmate had to be niggled out to stay close, didn’t look all that great but is a grass horse working on the main track so not much more could have been expected.
View Workout Video
First Prez (January 1, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.2h). Grade: B-
In blinkers in easy solo breeze for J. Mullins, final three furlongs in :12.1 and :37.1. Looks fine, might enjoy a return to his $20,000 claim level.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 6: Post: 3:05 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference: 6-Destiny’s Journey; 5-Take a Leap
Forecast: Destiny’s Journey (TOC=4/5; ML=9/5) will most likely be the controlling speed as she usually is, and with this slight drop in class the veteran daughter of Paynter looks well-spotted to regain her winning form. First or second in five of seven career starts over the Santa Anita main track, the S. Knapp-trained mare retains regular rider A. Cedillo and is logically the one to beat at 9/5 on the morning line. Take a Leap (TOC=10-1; ML=5/2) is worth inclusion in rolling exotic play as well, even though the analytics say no. First-off- the-claim (and dropping a notch) for clever trainer V. Cerin (23% with a massive ROI with this angle, the seven-year-old mare picks up the barn’s “go-to” rider K. Desormeaux and projects to be the most dangerous of the closers. She’s a perfect one-for-one over the Santa Anita main track and has been first or second in 11 of 27 career starts.
Notable Workouts:
Noble Contessa (December 17, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:19.1h). Grade: C+
Very slow final time but didn’t look bad while second best with Another Eddie (5f, 1:04.1h), never asked at any stage, splits of :25.1, :50.2 and 1:03.3 from the half mile pole out to the seven furlong pole. Veteran mare has been away since March but seems to be coming back in good enough shape. Likely to return in a very soft spot for E. Truman.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 7: Post: 3:35 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 7-She’s So Nice; 6-Javanica; 3-Thrilling
Forecast: The analytics can’t see it, but we loved the way She’s So Nice (TOC=13-1; ML=4-1) accelerated during the late stages of her win over the local flat turf course during the fall meeting and while she’s up a notch in class in her first outing in nearly three months the P. D’Amato-trained import has the proper this unique Hillside course and should be capable of winning once again. The Irish-bred four-yar-old has been working steadily for several weeks to tick her over, retains R. Gonzalez, and figures to have a pace scenario that will compliment her late running style. Javanica (TOC=10-1); ML=4-1), as well, should be running on strongly late as well. The daughter of Medaglia d’Oro has been routing most of her career, but she does show a good runner-up try in the listed Glorious Song Stakes at Woodbine back in the fall of 2020 and this return to a sprint should allow the Godolphin homebred to settle early and blast home late. Thrilling (TOC=4/5; ML=7/2) will press the pace but could have company every step of the way. She beat a first-level allowance field over the flat course during the fall season with speed figure that makes her a fit at this level, but the very quick Greg’s Diva in the field we’re expecting the winner to among those that will be running on strongly late.
Notable Workouts:
Spirit of Bermuda (January 2, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.3h TT). Grade: C+
In blinkers, shadow roll, solo training track drill for S. Callaghan, final three furlongs in :11.3 and :36.4, not really asked much. Just an average move but maybe needs turf, hard to say how she fits on this circuit
View Workout Video
Thrilling (January 1, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.4h). Grade: C+
Ridden a bit through the lane in solo drill for M. McCarthy, splits of :12 flat and :37 flat for the final three furlongs. Okay move, nothing special, prefers turf.
View Workout Video
Sensible Cat (December 18, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:14.4h). Grade: B-
Broke off about six lengths in front of Closing Remarks (same time) and finished head-and-head with much classier workmate at the wire while being urged through the lane (‘Remarks not asked), splits of :25 flat, :37.1 and 1:02 flat to the wire being urged out to the seven furlong pole to be up in 1:14.3 for a full six furlongs on our watches. Been away since May, is a grass specialist working on dirt so not much more should have been expected.
View Workout Video
Greg’s Diva (January 2, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:03.2h). Grade: C+
In blinkers, wasn’t asked through the lane in solo training track move for P. D’Amato but was wanting to lean in just a bit, final quarter mile in :25.3. We’ve seen her look better, but recent form has been excellent so it’s hard to be too critical.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 8: Post: 4:05 PT Grade: A-
Use (in order of preference): 1-Adare Manor; 3-Micro Share
Forecast: Adare Manor (TOC=4/5; ML=9/5) shows the two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern that we love and since her most recent start in November at Del Mar the B. Baffert-trained filly has looked spectacular in the morning. The daughter of Uncle Mo lands the good rail and seems certain to employ gate-to-wire tactics based on her draw and the projected race shape. Her numbers are solid, the switch to Johnny V. is a positive, so we’re pretty much all in on this talented sophomore filly that listed as the co-second choice on the morning line at 9/5. We’ll take that price right now if we can get it. Micro Share (TOC=9/2; ML=8/5) closed a gap sprinting after a slow start in a promising debut while finishing a nose in front of Adare Manor in that same mid-November affair and seems certain to improve with experience and distance. ‘Manor is the quicker of the two, though, and that’s she gets preference, but we’ll include the R. Mandella-trained daughter of Upstart on our rolling exotic ticket as well, at least as a back-up or a saver.
Notable Workouts:
Adare Manor (January 2, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.1h). Grade: B+
In blinkers, looked quite good for B. Baffert inside Under the Stars (same time) while even but perhaps a tad the best with Under the Stars (same time) and Rantanen (5f, 1:03.1h, tied in at quarter pole), working under a stout pull to the wire before continuing out in good style to the seven furlong pole, splits of :12.1, :24.4, :49 flat (to the wire) before continuing out an extra eighth to be up in 1:01.2 on our watches. Daughter of Uncle Mo has the prerequisite two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern and should produce a significant forward move going long next time out. Chance to be a decent sort, at the very least.
View Workout Video
Muy Chistosa (January 1, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.3h). Grade: B
Worked outside Con on the Run (5f, 1:00.4h) and was best in solid fashion for J. Mullins, a length clear at the wire under mild coaxing, final three furlongs in :11.3 and :36.2. Daughter of Practical Joke has been one-paced in her sprints; should have no issue with a stretch out to two-turns.
View Workout Video
Micro Share (January 2, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.2h). Grade: B-
Was ridden a bit through the lane and was about a half-length back at the way with Vivacious Vanessa (6f, 1:13.4h, out to seven furlong pole), slow early but okay through the lane, final quarter mile in a solid :24.2. Daughter of Upstart probably will improve with experience and distance, was hoping for a bit more but workmate is a tough customer.
View Workout Video
Indy’s Star (January 2, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.4h). Grade: B-
Worked outside C J Express (same time) for P. Eurton and was doing little more than galloping in the final furlong, :25.3 from the quarter pole home while stride-for-stride to the wire. Acts like a distance type and probably can be expected to improve with experience and added ground.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 9: Post: 4:35 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 2-Dramatizer; 5-Chasingserendipity
Forecast: Note: this race’s analysis has been updated to reflect the scratching of Sweet Soulmate. Dramatizer (TOC=7/5; ML=3-1) has been freshened since early September for new trainer R. Alvarado and shows a healthy series of drills at San Luis Rey Downs. She could easily be a better type now and has races when facing tougher that make her the one to beat. This return to her winning level is another plus. If there’s a concern, it’s her deep closing style in a race that may be slowly run early, and if that’s the case, Chasingserendipity (TOC=7/2; ML-5-1) has a chance to be in an ideal pace-pressing/stalking position. From the hot V. Cerin barn, the daughter of Vancouver has several back speed figures that are good enough to win at this level. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
Notable Workouts:
Badger Kitten (January 2, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.4h TT). Grade: B-
Under a hold inside Flint Stroll (same time) for P. D’Amato, final three furlongs in :12.1 and :36.4. Maintenance drill, broke her maiden in decent style at Del Mar in late November and will get tested on the raise.
View Workout Video
Cecile’s Chapter (December 13, Santa Anita, 4f, :48h TT). Grade: B
Nice and easy in solo half mile training track breeze for J. Gutierrez, final quarter in a sharp :24 flat without ever being asked. Was winless last year but seems in good shape, need to be realistically spotted.
View Workout Video
Sweet Soulmate (December 17, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00h TT). Grade: B+
No blinkers, relaxed nicely between horses and was slightly best at the wire in three-horse team drill with Bodhicitta (5f, :59.4h TT, broke off a length behind) and Vulin (5f, 1:01.2h TT), finishing nicely without pressure, final three furlongs in :11.4 and :36 flat, quite nice for R. Baltas. Equipment change should help, appears ready for another forward move.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
